Looks like we may have WON the Virginia Attorney General race.

[Coyotl]

The AP now reports a 153 vote spread:
Total 2536/2541 precincts reported
M. Herring (Dem) 1,097,106
M. Obenshain(GOP) 1,097,259

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_county/VA_Page_1105.html

And this on Dave Wasserman's twitter feed:

Taniel ‏@Taniel 28m ago
The situation, as described by @redistrict: 5 precincts remain. Obama carried them by 1456 votes.

Absentee votes are coming in. Here is the latest tweet from Dave:
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 18m
Bottom line on VA AG: there are going to be lots of shifts in the vote before we even get to the inevitable recount. No answers tonight.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict

[Zorra]

1. Recommend.

Yes, indeed.

[AllyCat]

2. This would be a good thing.

I know there will be a fight, but this is a very, very good thing.

[IllinoisBirdWatcher]

3. Also via Dave Wasserman...

That there are at least two transcription errors from county totals he thinks are not included in the AP totals for +600 more votes for Herring. His bottom line is correct - lots of shifts before it is done.

[blogslut]

4. Herring's in the lead now

1,098,388 - Herring
1,097,772 - Obenshain

Looks like the "Cooch" put the elections board webmaster to bed. The votes totals on it haven't been updated in almost two hours.

[Coyotl]

5. Herring opens a real lead, 618 votes, with 4 precinct left to report

2537/2541
1,098,388
1,097,772

[chillfactor]

8. let's hope those precincts finish the count tonight....

I want to know before I go to bed..

[Heather MC]

6. Obenshain should have been the first one shutdown with his wacky views on

Criminalizing Women who Suffer Miscarriages
Blows my mind that this guy could get one woman to vote for him
SMH

[Tx4obama]

7. Herring has taken the lead !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

New numbers...

Virginia - 2537 of 2541 Precincts Reporting

Herring, Mark Dem 1,098,388 50%
Obenshain, Mark GOP 1,097,772 50%

http://www.timesdispatch.com/

[grantcart]

21. Landslide Yeah

[Half-Century Man]

9. The message from the United States to the republican party.

Do not piss down my back while telling me it's raining. We will remember and act accordingly.

[Coyotl]

10. Precincts not reporting may be dominately Republican.

One in Mecklenburg, county voting 40% blue, 60% red.
One in Prince William, county voting 54% blue.
One in Rockbridge, county voting 39% blue.
One in Rockingham, county voting 25% blue.

I have no idea what the sizes are, nor what their past records on the precinct level are.

[Heather MC]

12. PrinceWilliam is Large

Woodbridge, Dale City, Occoquan area

Never heard of the Other three. I have been in VA my whole life Raised in Central Va
Living in Northern VA

I can't speak on the other three Counties but Prince William is part of Northern VA and has a LOT of Government employees
and lower income families their. Or people who wanted a a larger house for less money

[Coyotl]

11. I'm going to sleep. Here's the AP results link:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_county/VA_Page_1105.html

Keep the reporting alive if you are staying awake.

[grasswire]

13. Pug is preparing for a recount.

http://www.wvec.com/news/politics/Race-for-Va-attorney-general-offers-stark-choice-230221081.html

[longship]

14. Herring in the lead by 616 votes. 4 precincts left to report.

Via Times-Dispatch.

I started a large thread earlier predicting a probable Republican win. It was a great thread and went well over 100 posts as Herring edged up, against the odds and the early bad showing.

Here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023986396

I was wrong, but the numbers looked pretty damned bad at the time.

Hopefully I was successful in bringing folks over here to help celebrate another VA Dem victory.

[joshcryer]

19. Thanks for linking your older thread.

Even if you got it wrong the discussion there is interesting.

Lived in Williamsburg for a time, grew up in Tazewell.

[pinboy3niner]

22. I didn't know that about you, josh

I lived up North, in Fairfax County, for 16 years.

[joshcryer]

26. Interestingly, while well traveled, I've yet to go to DC.

One of these days!

[longship]

24. I am not afraid of being wrong.

I actually became very happy that I was.

It is an interesting thread. Especially when things turned around and the disrupters showed up to remind me how wrong I was, three+ hours after my OP. I didn't alert on any of them, but I did respond.

Thanks you for your kind response.

Best regards.

[kydo]

41. thanks for adding that link

I was going to say thanks for last night but that just sounds so odd...

It was a long night - I had to sleep. But when I left Obenshain was up by about 800.

Of course first thing is check to see who won.



Herring might pull this off.

How long for the recount and any appeals Obenshain might have before they declare Herring?

[Kablooie]

15. That's so weird. Over a *million* votes each and only 153 difference.

It's mind boggling that such huge numbers can be so close.

[longship]

17. I guess about half the Virginians are pretty loony.

That's the way it is in my state, too. (MI)

Don't feel bad; just keep working to change it.

[joshcryer]

18. Two party system with divisive politics does that.

The races are even closer because of the extent of media these days. I don't think they've been any closer than any other time in the US's history.

[nuke393]

20. Herring projected to win by 235-240 votes!

I did some quick math assuming the remaining precincts are as large and voted exactly as that of the counted precincts in their respective counties. I come up with Herring winning by 235-240 votes once these mathematical totals are added to the known counted totals.

Please note this does not mean Herring will pull this out. All it means is that the projected vote count "math" appears to now be in Herring's favor, but just barely.

[grantcart]

23. Welcome to DU and tks

[longship]

25. Yeah! The Republican is likely to call for a recount.

I would if I were in that position. I think it won't make a lot of difference because all the momentum was with the Democrats. That's a silly argument, but I stand by it.

Anyway, I think a sweep of all VA state offices is a wonderful coup.

[Beartracks]

35. A Tea Partier would call that a mandate!!!!11!

Unless, of course, the winner is a Democrat.

===================

[Warren DeMontague]

27. Either way this is going to be a squeaker. And, obviousy, a recount.

Looks like AP Has Obenshain up by around 450 right now.

[nuke393]

28. AP

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_state/VA_Page_1105.html

Attorney General - General

2537 of 2541 Precincts Reporting - 99%

Herring, Mark Dem 1,098,388 50%
Obenshain, Mark GOP 1,097,772 50%

[Warren DeMontague]

31. Thanks. That link didn't work for me, but I'm getting different numbers now from different places.

I don't even know how I got the other AP ones. longship's right, it's late. Although not as late here

Anyway, VA should get some sleep, this thing is going to be in limbo for a bit I bet.

[pinboy3niner]

29. The state BoE website finally updated, now shows Herring ahead by 541 votes

Only 2 precincts still out.

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY

[longship]

30. Latest from VA Dept of Elections.

Herring ahead by 541 votes with 2 precincts left to report.

I am uncertain whether the discrepancy from earlier tonight is included in this total. However, it seems clear that there will likely be a recount for the VA AG race.

Good night everybody. It's been a wild, and fun one.

[Warren DeMontague]

32. *

[StrictlyRockers]

33. Good night, longship. (AKA Nate Silver 2)

Yes, we are all very glad that you were wrong. Maybe next time you won't be so quick with the snide remarks about how anyone who disagrees with you must not know math.

[StrictlyRockers]

34. Every time I read the name Obenshain, I think of Obadiah Stane, the villain in Iron Man 1.

Oh, bad guy.

[pinboy3niner]

36. Wasserman has charted discrepancies between AP and state BoE vote counts

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 15m

.@Taniel I've created a (4am) chart of the discrepancies between the AP count and the SBE count: https://docs.google.com/a/cookpolitical.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvOrrxBeaarVdEVKTERkVm1sMXU5ZUxRcEVlbGZhcWc#gid=0

[Historic NY]

37. Herring ahead......

With all but three precincts reporting, the Virginia State Board of Elections this morning showed Herring ahead by 541 votes. Herring's total of 1,098,418 votes gave him 49.91 percent of the vote compared to Obenshain's 1,097,877, or 49.88 percent.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/election/herring-edges-into-lead-in-tight-attorney-general-race/article_8f83c32a-466a-11e3-bfc0-0019bb30f31a.html

[pinboy3niner]

38. The three precincts not yet in:

MECKLENBURG COUNTY - South Hill

ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY - Ben Salem

ROCKINGHAM COUNTY - McGaheysville

[Rstrstx]

39. Looking at those counties...

...all went for Romney but the first two were by about 200 someodd votes for a total of 400 net votes for Romney. Rockingham though had nearly 800 more votes for Romney than Obama. So in the presidential election they gave Romney about 1200 more votes than Obama.

Turnout is appearing to be about half of what it was in 2012, so assume those approx net 1200 votes get cut in half - that's 600 more votes for the R, so this is truly a nailbiter. Plus the fact that Rs tend to do better in offyear elections and it looks like for sure there'll be a recount. Hopefully no funny business is going on in Rockingham County. The provisionals may put Herring over the top for good, not knowing Virginia politics I don't have a clue. Good luck to him

[pinboy3niner]

40. In the AG race...

The rest of Mecklenburg's precincts went for Obenshain over Herring 60-40;

The rest of Rockbridge went for Obenshain 61-39;

And the rest of Rockingham went for Obenshain 75-25.

I think those proportional votes are what Wasserman is basing his calculations on: https://twitter.com/Redistrict

[Coyotl]

42. VA SoS: Republican win by 53 votes, 2 precincts to report. More tweets:

Without the provisional ballot totals, we can expect the Republican lead to increase.
However, I'm betting there are more provisional blue voters than red voters because of Republicans removed so many registered voters.

2539/2541 precincts

1,098,895 Dem
1,098,948 R

difference 53 votes

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 25m
AP now says Obenshain (R) up by 53 votes after McGaheysville reports 676 votes Obenshain (R), 245 Herring (D).

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 23m
However, Obenshain (R) can expect to gain another 200 in Buchanan Co., ~200 in Mecklenburg & ~100 in Rockbridge, for 500-600 vote lead (2/2)

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 14m
Check that. AP does include Mecklenburg's last precinct (500 Obenshain 262 Herring), so Obenshain might expect lead to expand to 300-400.

[MADem]

43. What's funny is I started out reading that other thread, and then checked the wires to see what they

were saying.

Last night, the WAPO was saying the Republican was going to win by a tight margin, ("appears headed for a RAZOR THIN VICTORY" is how they put it--in fact, that's the name of their OOPSIE link; a digital "Dewey Defeats Truman" hopefully) I refreshed the link this morning and, son of a gun!

Herring, Obenshain in dead heat in Virginia attorney general’s race; recount expected

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/obenshain-appears-headed-for-razor-thin-victory-in-virginia-attorney-generals-race/2013/11/05/08d13182-4255-11e3-a624-41d661b0bb78_story.html

I wonder who the headline writer was in the first instance...certainly jumped the gun!

[Coyotl]

44. Va. Attorney General results map = now outdated.

Note they report these old results:
http://hamptonroads.com/2013/10/election-2013-attorney-general-results-map

Mark Obenshain (R) = 1,096,220
Mark Herring (D) ... = 1,095,056

Herring now has 1,098,895

What a difference a couple of precincts can make.

[Chan790]

45. Latest as of 9:50am. Obenshain up 144. One Precinct remaining.

Attorney General - General
Virginia - 2540 of 2541 Precincts Reporting - 99%

Obenshain, Mark GOP 1,099,198 50%
Herring, Mark Dem 1,099,054 50%

Per Richmond Times-Dispatch.

[Coyotl]

46. One precinct left to report, Herring now down by 143 votes.

1,099,055 D
1,099,198 R

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_county/VA_Page_1105.html

What is the provisional ballot and absentee ballot situation? I suspect there will be some blue shift from these, given the number of registered voters the Republicans removed and the blue tendency to want to vote on paper.

[Coyotl]

47. ALL PRECINCTS now have Herring behind by 186 votes.

1,099,226 D
1,099,412 R

So, on to consider the recount (where paper ballots were used) and what of the tally of provisional ballots and absentee ballots?

How much of Virginia cannot have a real recount because the machines do not use ballots?

[Coyotl]

48. Democratic Party lost challenge against purge of 38,000 voters from rolls

Voter purging by Republicans can make a big difference, just ask Al Gore!

Virginia’s Democratic Party loses challenge against purge of 38,000 voters from rolls
By Matt Zapotosky, Published: October 18 - http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/federal-judge-rejects-democratic-challenge-to-virginia-voter-roll-purge/2013/10/18/26235068-3809-11e3-8a0e-4e2cf80831fc_story.html

A federal judge on Friday rejected an effort by the Virginia Democratic Party to restore more than 38,000 names to the state’s voter rolls that it claimed were possibly purged in error, saying the evidence did not convince him that anyone had been disenfranchised.

“I just don’t find that there’s a strong showing here of any inequitable treatment or the deprivation of anyone’s rights,” U.S. District Judge Claude M. Hilton said as he denied the Democrats’ request. ........

[Coyotl]

49. VA SoS site: 753 R vote margin = 100% reporting = precinct count has risen.

This might be a precinct count that includes each county's provisionals and mail-in ballots.

Obenshain 1,100,130
Herring 1,099,377

2558 precincts reporting.

[Ranchemp.]

50. Now at 979 votes down.

Obershain-1,100,395
Herring-1,099,416

Shit.

[StrictlyRockers]

51. Dang.

Recount coming, tho.

[Ranchemp.]

52. Hopefully a recount will wipe out the gains made by Obershain.

He's up by over 1000 votes now.

[winter is coming]

53. It's not clear if all the absentee ballots from Fairfax County have been tallied yet. n/t

[Ranchemp.]

54. We can only hope.

[winter is coming]

55. I'm following this guy's twitter feed. He seems to be doing a good job of drilling

down into the numbers:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict

[Ranchemp.]

56. That's helpful.

Thx for the link.

[winter is coming]

57. You're welcome. I got it from another DUer last night. DU rocks! n/t

[grantcart]

58. this looks interesting

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 1h
If there truly was a 47% increase in Fairfax Co. absentees (per @ElectProject) and they haven't been factored in, would be huge for Herring.

[Coyotl]

72. Lots of progressives request paper ballots to avoid electronic voting.

Meanwhile, the rednecks do not.

[winter is coming]

59. It's now believed they have been counted. :-(

https://twitter.com/Redistrict

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 59s

A source close to Fairfax Co. elections office says all absentees there have been tallied. Only ~500 provisionals, will be processed Fri.

[grantcart]

60. but the provisionals could help bring it down a bit.

Looks like we let this one slip away.

[winter is coming]

61. We didn't let it slip away. A lot of voters were struck from the rolls at the last minute. n/t

[grantcart]

62. They should still have provisional ballots then.

[winter is coming]

63. You know as well as I do that provisionals have a way of not getting counted. n/t

[Coyotl]

73. Because Cuccinelli purged 38,000 voters, I expect the provisionals to swing blue.

[winter is coming]

65. Update from the same website:

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 8m

Some Fairfax Co. Democrats still claiming that there are roughly 3,000 absentee votes there unaccounted for, per source. Conflicting reports

[pinboy3niner]

66. If true, that could be huge. SBE currently has Obenshain's lead at 1169. nt

[winter is coming]

69. Whoa!

Last edited Wed Nov 6, 2013, 06:38 PM - Edit history (1)

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 1m

Eagle-eyed @Jlock notices that Fairfax Co. reports 29,406 absentee votes cast but counts just ~22,500 in each race. http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/elections/webreports/resu1113.pdf …

on edit:

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 20m

Fairfax Co. reports that out of 281,880 in-person voters, 277,048 cast ballots in #VAAG race. But out of 29,406 absentee, just 22,453 did.

However, these aren't guaranteed to be missing votes. Some claiming 29,406 is absentees *requested,* not necessarily all returned.

Bottom line: the absentee count in Fairfax is strangely low, but there's no hard evidence there are any missing absentees to be counted.

[KamaAina]

64. Someone on FB said one precinct in Loudoun Co. was reporting 90-10 repuke for AG

though it went solidly for both Terry and Northam. Hmmmm... A place called Sugarland South.

edit: the guy is a plugged-in Dem activist in NoVA, not some random FB person.

[FSogol]

74. Sugarland South

215 - SUGARLAND SOUTH

Candidate Votes Percent
REP Party Mark D. Obenshain 508 42.87%
DEM Party Mark R. Herring 672 56.71%
Write-in 5 0.42%
Total Votes 1,185

Herring won there. Source: http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsPREC.aspx?type=SWR&rid=169&cty=107&osn=6

[Cognitive_Resonance]

67. Urgent: Anyone who voted a provisional ballot needs to contact 1-855-910-VOTE (8683)

According to the Herring campaign, thousands of provisional ballots were cast. Herring can win this if the votes are counted.

[seabeyond]

68. start an OP. people wont see this in this thread. thanks for info. nt

[KamaAina]

83. +219

[pinboy3niner]

70. New Wasserman tweet on Ffax absentee ballots

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 1m

Eagle-eyed @Jlock notices that Fairfax Co. reports 29,406 absentee votes cast but counts just ~22,500 in each race. http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/elections/webreports/resu1113.pdf …

https://twitter.com/Redistrict

[StevieM]

71. Now the Virginia Board of Elections have Herring up by 32 votes.

It looks like 759 votes just came in for Herring in Prince William County.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict

[Ranchemp.]

76. It was an error that gave Herring those 759 votes,

which has since been rectified, Obenshain is back in the lead by 726 votes.

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY

[StevieM]

77. Yeah I saw that, but it looks like we will get an additional 100 votes in Newsome News City

https://twitter.com/Redistrict

I am hoping that the provisional ballots can swing the race.

[Coyotl]

84. Wasserman's tweet:

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 5h ago
That 600 vote Montgomery Co. (precinct D-5) error is an absolute killer for Herring (D). Rallying from 700 down = 7x harder than 100

[Coyotl]

75. Herring is behind now = virginia.gov has a 726 vote spread with 100.0% of precincts

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsCTY.aspx?type=SWR&rid=169&osn=6&map=CTY

Absentee and provisional voting remains outstanding in some areas.

Current tally is 1,100,798 to 1,100,072 for Herring.

Best source of updates remains Dave Wasserman = https://twitter.com/Redistrict

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 2m ago
VA SBE seems to have corrected PWC error; Obenshain (R) now back ahead by 726 votes:

[Gothmog]

78. Thanks for the information

I hope that we find enough provisional or absentee ballots to swing this race to the Democrat

[Coyotl]

79. More NEWS from Wasserman = "lead likely under 300"

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 2m ago
By math, that error will cost Obenshain (R) roughly 350 votes out of that precinct alone. Add Newsome Park error, his lead likely under 300.

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 6m ago
...VA SBE reporting McAuliffe won London Towne #1 (Centreville) 732-413, Northam won 789-412, but Obenshain won 775-773. Really?

[StevieM]

80. Newsome Park brings it down to 626. And I am thinking that London Towne meant to report 775-373 but

accidentally wrote 775-373. That is an additional 400 votes, which lowers his lead to 226 votes. Provisionals should make up for that, but the GOP will no doubt try to screw them again, just like they did on Election Day.

[Coyotl]

81. More updates and a change in margin, now 681 (less 300 to be corrected)

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 9m ago.
Henry County just added 39 Herring votes, 0 Obenshain.

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 13m ago
At SBE site, Obenshain (R) lead shrinks to 681 votes: http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsCTY.aspx?type=SWR&rid=169&osn=6&map=CTY …. But that still includes tally errors in Fairfax/Newport News.

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 20m ago
Another HUGE Fairfax Co. error benefiting Herring (D): correct total is Herring 877-614, but VA SBE lists it as Obenshain 614-577. +300 H

[Coyotl]

82. Dave Wasserman has published a spreadsheet to crowd source possible irregularities

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 4m ago
I've created a spreadsheet to crowdsource & track possible errors in the count of the #VAAG race:

https://docs.google.com/a/cookpolitical.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvOrrxBeaarVdGhvNWZZN2UzUVY1bDVoYW83bWszM1E#gid=0 …

[karynnj]

85. Looking at the chart and his twitter and thinking how really simple a tally is, the Republicans

owe Sebelious an apology! It is amazing how many errors - of pretty large magnitude.

I remember numbers being called into people adding them on a black board (before whiteboards.) in my college town, Any errors of that size would have been questioned because they just did not make sense.

[StevieM]

86. There may be some missing absentees in Fairfax County.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict

[Coyotl]

87. This is BIG NEWS = 3,000 missing absentee ballots in Fairfax will change the outcome

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 27m ago
And if there are indeed ~3,000 missing Fairfax #VA08 absentee votes, that'd almost certainly be the miracle Herring (D) needs to pull ahead.

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 32m
One Fairfax politics veteran theorizes one #VA08 in-person absentee location's votes were somehow not added to the county's tally.

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 34m
The more I look at the data, the totality of the evidence points towards the likelihood that there are ~3,000 untallied Fairfax Co. votes.

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 59m
@bdomenech @PatrickRuffini I'm not saying anyone is lying. I'm saying there are large unaccounted-for discrepancies in vote totals.

[Coyotl]

88. NEW THREAD here:

VA AG Race - Multiple Dem sources - "smoking gun" something is up Fairfax Co = 3,000 missing votes
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024000076

[WCLinolVir]

89. Thanks for the info. I will add my 2 cents to the VSBE.