Reading tea leaves: What Virginia and New Jersey exit polls say
The two biggest elections Tuesday provided an imperfect template for predicting the future.
In New Jersey, Republican Gov. Chris Christie so thoroughly blew away his Democratic opponent that conclusions are skewed. It would be a miracle, for instance, if Christie duplicated his showing and won close to a quarter of black voters in a 2016 run for president. In Virginia, the main candidates were so flawed you could almost hear voters begging for a “none of the above” option before they grudgingly gave the governor’s office to Democrat Terry McAuliffe.
But draw conclusions we shall. Here are some glimmerings, via exit polling, from Tuesday’s vote in the hottest contests.
Bad news for Republicans. Virginia provides the most accurate assessment, since it has become a reliable reflection of the country overall. The Republican Party is looking to expand its reach among women, minority voters, young voters and moderates. In all cases it failed. Women sided with Democrat McAuliffe over Republican Ken Cuccinelli, 51% to 42%. Black voters backed McAuliffe 90% to 8% (there were not enough Latinos or Asians to calculate their percentages). Voters under age 30 voted for the Democrat 45% to 40%. And moderates gave McAuliffe an expansive lead, 56% to 34%. Granted, for all those groups Cuccinelli was a tough sell, since he has been a culture warrior in a state that is rapidly moderating, and those voter groups tend to be repelled by approaches like his. But Cuccinelli accurately reflects where many Republicans are, and his is the image many voters see when they think of the Republican Party. Unless, that is, someone obliterates that image with his own.
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http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-exit-polls-analysis-virginia-new-jersey-20131106,0,3209292.story#axzz2jmZKUMBV
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