Why legalizing gay marriage is going to get harder

[RandySF]

For the past year, same-sex marriage proponents have been on a winning streak, including on Tuesday when the Illinois legislature approved gay weddings starting in June. While Hawaii is expected within a week to become the 16th state sanctioning same-sex marriage, activists will face a tougher time expanding the map after that point.

Any future change in state marriage laws rests almost entirely on either the reversal of gay wedding bans through ballot initiatives or court challenges, both of which represent a steeper climb. The one exception to this is in New Mexico, where the state’s constitution is silent on the question: its Supreme Court heard arguments on a case involving six couples last month and is expected to rule on the question within a matter of months.

“We’re going to be entering an era where most of the legislative fights are over, and we’re going to have to undo constitutional amendments, and do that at the ballot box,” said Marc Solomon, national campaign director of the group Freedom to Marry.

That’s terrain that has traditionally favored defenders of traditional marriage. Twenty-nine states now have voter-approved constitutional bans on gay marriage (since California’s was overturned in June); one state, Minnesota, defeated a proposed ban; and three states — Maine, Maryland and Washington — legalized same-sex weddings through a statewide vote.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/11/06/from-here-on-out-legalizing-same-sex-marriage-becomes-harder/

[Zorra]

1. An LGBT friendly SCOTUS could level the playing field with one broad decision. nt

[cali]

2. yeah, I was thinking about this this morning

I do think though that it will only get easier as far as the ballot box goes.

[jberryhill]

5. In 2000...

Alabama had a ballot proposition to formally remove the inoperative anti-miscegenation provision from their Constitution.

It passed, but by the remarkably low margin of 60-40. Fully 40% of Alabama voters in 2000 wanted interracial marriage to be unlawful.

[dsc]

3. that is why, barring a SCOTUS decision

I think my state of NC will be the last one to legalize. Our Constitution is very difficult to amend. You need a 3/5 majority of both houses and then a majority at the ballot box. On top of that a party can bottle up the bill if its leadership is opposed.

[jberryhill]

4. About half the states prohibit cousin marriages

That's not much of a big deal, since non-recognition of out-of-state cousin marriages is prohibited by the full faith and credit clause.

Alabama didn't remove the anti-miscegenation provision from its Constitution until 2000. It had been rendered inoperative by the US Supreme Court. The relevant question is whether enough of a tipping point has been reached to get the correct answer out of the current Supreme Court.