Memo to Democratic Chicken Littles: The Sky Is Not Falling

[babylonsister]

http://prospect.org/article/memo-democratic-chicken-littles-sky-not-falling

Memo to Democratic Chicken Littles: The Sky Is Not Falling

Paul Waldman

November 15, 2013

Yes, this is a politically difficult moment for President Obama. But everyone needs to chill out.



Ah, now this is what politics is supposed to be like: Ruthless Republicans, gleeful at the prospect that they might increase the net total of human suffering. Timorous Democrats, panicking at the first hint of political difficulty and rushing to assemble a circular firing squad. And the news media bringing out the "Dems In Disarray!" headlines they keep in storage for just this purpose.

The problems of the last couple weeks "could threaten Democratic priorities for years," says Ron Brownstein. It's just like Hurricane Katrina, says The New York Times (minus the 1,500 dead people, I guess they mean, though they don't say so). "On the broader question of whether Obama can rebuild an effective presidency after this debacle," says Dana Milbank, "it's starting to look as if it may be game over." Ruth Marcus also declares this presidency all but dead: "Can he recover? I'm sorry to say: I'm not at all confident."

Oh please. Everyone just chill out.


snip//



Here's what's going to happen. The administrative fix Obama announced yesterday will temporarily staunch the political bleeding. But it will have very little effect on the actual insurance market, which is a good thing. In some states, insurance commissioners won't let the insurance companies continue to sell the junk plans we've been talking about. In others, insurers won't want to go back and re-offer the plans they cancelled. Some of the people with the junk plans will end up keeping them, but most of them will end up going to the exchanges. Many will find that they can get subsidies, or even without them find an affordable plan. Some may find that they're paying more for a plan that offers real insurance. Those in the latter group will grumble, but it won't be front-page news anymore, because the media are extraordinarily fickle, and they've already told that story.

Over the next year, the rest of the law will be implemented. There may be problems here and there, but overall it will probably go reasonably well. There will be plenty of things Democrats can point to in order to convince people that it was a good idea, like the fact that now nobody can be denied coverage because of a pre-existing condition, or the fact that millions of people who couldn't afford coverage or were denied before now have it. There will also be things Republicans will say to try to convince people it was a terrible idea, like the fact that premiums didn't plummet, and health care is still expensive, and Obamacare didn't give every little girl a pony.

And what else will happen in the next year? Other things. The economy may get worse, or it may get better. There may be a foreign crisis. Controversies we can't yet anticipate will emerge, explode, then disappear. A young singer may move her posterior about in a suggestive manner, causing a nation to drop everything and talk about nothing else for a week. We might start talking about immigration reform again. There's going to be another budget battle. In other words, all sorts of things could affect the next election, and the election after that.

So yes, this is a difficult period for President Obama, and for the Affordable Care Act. But everyone needs to take a deep breath and remember that things will change. They always do.

[cali]

1. yep. we need to focus on fighting the President on the TPP

[lumberjack_jeff]

2. Just like Katrina

[uponit7771]

8. Yeap, Gregory brought up Katrina as a comparison "some" are making... he's class less

[ProSense]

3. They've been at it

since the months before the law was signed. The ACA has been declared dead and the Obama Presidency over for more nearly four years...by scared Democrats.

I mean, you'd think that Obama didn't kick Romney's ass and win an election based on the health care law.

This succeeds and it's all because of the President and Democrats standing by this.

[IrishAyes]

4. Great and TIMELY OP, thanks.

I'm so concerned about the ACA and President Obama's immediate and longterm future that I'm going to lie down and take an overdue nap now. Got a major letter to the newspaper to compose this afternoon. And I've sworn off Sunday morning political talk shows FOREVER. They're the ones who've been slipping in MY poll. G'bye, George Stephanopoulus. It was nice knowing you.

[napkinz]

6. kick

nt

[uponit7771]

7. But... but... David Gregory was smirking and stuff / sarcasm

[William769]

9. Kick & recommended.