Dangerous 'High Risk' Midwest U.S. Tornado Outbreak Underway

[Cal Carpenter]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2581

Dangerous 'High Risk' Midwest U.S. Tornado Outbreak Underway
By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT on November 17, 2013

A rare and very dangerous late-season severe weather outbreak is underway over the Midwest U.S., where NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is predicting a "High Risk" of severe weather--their highest level of alert--over most of Indiana and Illinois, plus portions of Southern Lower Michigan and Western Ohio. This is just the second "High Risk" forecast for 2013, and the area at risk of severe weather is unusually large. According to a list of all "High Risk" forecasts issued since 1984 maintained at Wikipedia, today's High Risk area is the farthest north such a forecast has been issued so late in the year. A 992 mb low pressure system that was over Northern Illinois on Sunday morning will move northeast and rapidly intensify to 965 mb by Monday morning, dragging a strong cold front across the "High Risk" area on Sunday afternoon. Isolated supercell thunderstorms--the kind most likely to produce strong and violent tornadoes--are expected to form ahead of the front, and the SPC is expecting multiple long-track strong tornadoes to form during the early afternoon. Any tornadoes that form will be moving at highway speed--50 to 60 mph--and will be under low cloud bases around 2,000 feet, making these storms difficult to see and react to, particularly in wooded or hilly areas. If the sirens sound, seek shelter!

A dangerous day in Chicago
Most of Illinois, including Chicago, has been placed under a special "PDS" Tornado Watch: a "Particularly Dangerous Situation." Severe thunderstorms spawning tornado warnings have already erupted over Southern Wisconsin and Western Illinois as of 10:15 am CST. Severe thunderstorms are likely to sweep through Chicago in the early afternoon during today's Ravens - Bears game, which starts at noon CST. According to NBC 5 in Chicago, loose objects are being removed from the stadium in anticipation of high winds, and officials are prepared to evacuate fans, if necessary. An NFL game will stop if there is lightning, and cannot continue until 30 minutes afterwards.

more at link

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2581



Cross-posted in LBN http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014650358

[uppityperson]

1. NOAA/NWS shows a few already. Sounds like a long day today there.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
This map is for "today" so will change as today goes on and when tomorrow arrives, that will be "today". If you go to link above you can go forward or backward by days.

[Cal Carpenter]

2. Thanks for the link

Looks like the wunderblog is under maintenance since I posted this thread (nice timing?!) but most of the other stuff on the wunderground is still available.

That map is a good way to keep track of stuff, so thanks again.

We are getting waves of torrential rain here in SE Mich. Hoping the tornadoes don't make it over here but we are in the risk area and are expecting high winds through tomorrow morning.

It's above 60 degrees here and pouring rain. Really strange for this time of year. And that's saying something because our weather is always sort of strange and can seem to change from hour to hour.

[uppityperson]

3. I like wunderblog, but think they pull off the NWS site and present it in a different manner.

I hated spring tornado season in midwest, do not envy you this November storm. Very odd weather there.

[dog_lovin_dem]

4. I am located just to the east

of the current storm. Thanks for this post, the indepth information is much appreciated.

[Paulie]

5. I'm here about 10 minutes from the storm hitting my suburb of Chicago

One good thing is it should finish getting the remaining leaves off the trees.

[Demo_Chris]

6. For those who do not understand, "High Risk" means...

Exactly that. It's not some puffed up alert system like one usually sees. Under this system even a moderate risk is freaking scary. Anyone living in that area needs to take this very seriously.

[Contrary1]

7. It's headed straight for us here...

Tornadoes can do some mind-boggling damage. Some years back, about 1/3 of my brother's tri-level home was taken down by one. Thankfully, they were not there at the time.

They found the dog (unhurt) in the garage underneath a motorcycle that had fallen just the right way to prevent other debris from crushing him. One of the more amazing things to me was that a pile of just washed blue jeans were blown out of the bedroom, around two corners, down the hallway, and deposited on the kitchen floor...still in a neatly folded stack.

Be careful midwesterners.

[IDemo]

8. Just announced to football fans: please leave seating area and head to concourse

Several are remaining seated with big grins...

[Brickbat]

12. What football game?

[IDemo]

14. Sorry, Chicago Bears, Soldier Field

[NuclearDem]

9. Yep, see that state that state that's completely covered in red?

Right in the middle of that.

[Cal Carpenter]

11. Shit, be safe and please check in sometimes...

[Starry Messenger]

10. Holy crap.

o.O

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024047468

Be safe peeps.

[AverageJoe90]

13. Large and *extremely* dangerous tornado touched down near Bone Gap, Ill.....

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
140 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

ILC047-185-172000-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0080.000000T0000Z-131117T2000Z/
WABASH IL-EDWARDS IL-
140 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN EDWARDS AND
WABASH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS UNTIL 200 PM CST...

AT 135 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED NEAR BONE GAP...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH. LARGE TORNADO
REPORTED ON THE GROUND JUST WEST OF BONE GAP.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL
BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND
VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. FLYING
DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT TREES TO
BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT CARMEL...LANCASTER...BELLMONT AND ALLENDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 8766 3850 8764 3847 8775 3844 8772
3838 8778 3835 8810 3835 8815 3852 8815
3853 8814 3858 8782 3857 8765
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 260DEG 56KT 3844 8798

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

[ancianita]

15. Sunshine now in Hyde Park...we're in the clear. Thank you for this post!

[NuclearDem]

16. Sirens are going off here in Hamilton County.

Tornado on the ground in Lebanon.

The system is going northeast, which means my city is safe, but it's on the way to hit Cicero and Atlanta.