Tornadoes In The Fall Were Not Even A Remote Thought In Illinois Where I Grew Up.

[TheMastersNemesis]

When I grew up in central Illinois in the 1950's we had a lot of tornado like weather in the spring. And we had summer storms that were severe electrical storms. But tornado weather was usually over by June. And there was never never any thoughts of tornado weather after September.

Something has obviously changed with the latest weather in the Midwest today. As a matter of fact I do not remember winter tornadoes anywhere in the US in the depth of winter. And I was a weather watcher and even kept my own log books because I wanted to be a meteorologist. And I watched the weather every night.

If this activity is not due to warming I do not know what is. How denial can still be so common is just amazing.

[cherokeeprogressive]

1. The question is and should be...

Have there EVER been fall tornadoes in Illinois?

And just to head some off at the pass... a question does not constitute denial.

[eqfan592]

2. From what I understand, there have been, it's just very, VERY rare....

...and this was one hell of a storm for this late in the year. We're destroying our planet, and now we'll continue to pay the price for it.

[RobertEarl]

4. Variable and extreme temps

Earlier this week it was down in the teens here. Today it was like tropical weather. That's not quite normal. But that is what was predicted by the earliest climate watchers: Extremely variable weather.

[cherokeeprogressive]

7. What were the previous falll tornadoes attributed to? n/t

[eqfan592]

11. Excuse me? I'm not sure exactly what you're getting at.

Some information that shows a clear increase in frequency over the years.

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/11/01/u-s-tornadoes-the-month-of-november-by-the-numbers/

[uppityperson]

18. Thank you for that link, lots of interesting charts there.

[AtheistCrusader]

28. Now control for improvements in detection methods.

[laundry_queen]

31. That chart is for the entire US

In the fall, the US also has a mini-tornado season, so November tornadoes do happen. What makes this outbreak especially remarkable is it was only one of 6 PDS situations ever in November since they started issuing PDS warnings - and one has never happened this far north this late in the season. That's the difference.

[AtheistCrusader]

32. I tend to agree with the conclusion, but the data is weak to support it.

Go back far enough, and tornadoes simply may not be observed. (Rural sprawl, radar have improved detection)

So the historical data is dodgy, unfortunately. Which is a shame, because everything we can show in black and white to illustrate the increase, and tie it to climate change improves the case for carbon caps, etc.

[eqfan592]

34. That is a fair point there. Hadn't thought about that.

Tho perhaps this is why the data only goes back to the 1950's?

[AtheistCrusader]

36. If memory serves, the sort of doppler radar that would detect this sort of thing over a broad area

got implemented in the 90's, but I'd have to look that up.

I would expect the vast majority of tornado observations going back to the 50's would be eyewitness accounts, chasers, etc. I could be wrong.


(If news reporting wasn't crap, once a year, per channel, we'd get a reminder after this sort of event, the history of tracking. Ah well)

[NuclearDem]

15. Longest tornado outbreak on record was in November of 1992.

It's not unusual. Climate change isn't helping, but large scale outbreaks in the fall aren't unusual.

[eqfan592]

20. Note that none of that outbreak took place in Illinois, the state in question.

And climate change isn't something that's only been going on for the last 10 years or something, but something that has been building for over a century now.

[LovingA2andMI]

33. Exactly!!!

Lived in Michigan all my life and have heard of, although rarely, tornado watches in November. It's not like it has never happened before.

[Dreamer Tatum]

8. Holy Christ in a chicken basket

http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/Illinois/1955


There you go. Have fun.

[eqfan592]

13. Dude, you really need to relax some. nt

[cherokeeprogressive]

17. I actually think you missed my point.

Which is... if these tornadoes can only be attributed to global climate change, to what should we attribute the tornadoes we KNOW happened this late in the year in the past?

[Dreamer Tatum]

19. I was replying to the OP. I agree with you. nt

[eqfan592]

22. I don't think anybody is claiming they can ONLY be attributed to climate change.

However, increases in this sort of activity are one of the things predicted with climate change, and the numbers we have support that prediction.

[wercal]

3. In the late 1980s we had a December tornado in Alabama

A quick search shows St Louis got hit on Jan 24 1967, and Illinois got hit Dcember 1957.

[DesMoinesDem]

5. Some info about November tornadoes.

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/11/01/u-s-tornadoes-the-month-of-november-by-the-numbers/

[Dreamer Tatum]

6. Jesus Christ, not only is it not winter

but if you go to the Tornado History Project, you'll see you're clearly wrong, that there were plenty of tornadoes in IL back then.

[damnedifIknow]

9. Especially this late in November

Lived in Illinois all my life and can tell you this is not normal.

[NuclearDem]

10. Nope, don't believe you for a second.

Of course you've never seen winter tornadoes. These aren't winter tornadoes because it isn't winter.

Late October and November have always been a secondary tornado season here. Transitional periods in temperatures cause tornado activity. Autumn outbreaks aren't uncommon, in fact a November storm holds the record for longest continual outbreak.

Basic research helps. There's enough disinformation about these monstrosities without people making shit up for political ends.

[cherokeeprogressive]

12. Winter is more than a month away and the DEPTH of Winter is further away than that.

[msongs]

14. graph showing fall/autmn tornados in illinois...

http://climateillinois.wordpress.com/

[bananas]

30. state climatologist for Illinois since 1997

http://climateillinois.wordpress.com/2013/11/17/november-17-2013-tornado-outbreak/

<snip>

While the primary tornado season in Illinois is in April through June period (plot below), it is possible to experience tornadoes in any month in Illinois. In fact, the odds are slightly higher in November than in October or December.



[hr]
About Jim Angel

I have been the state climatologist for Illinois since 1997 and have worked at the Illinois State Water Survey since 1984.

[uppityperson]

16. I do not remember them, growing up in the northern flatlands. I found a little bit about them, seem

fall tornadoes seem really odd to me also.


http://news.wsiu.org/post/national-weather-service-reminds-region-fall-tornado-season

The tornado season for this fall is approaching very quickly. The National Weather Service says tornadoes have caused the loss of many lives and they have destroyed many homes during the fall in our region.

Christine Wielgos with the National Weather Service in Paducah says one thing they stress is for people to stay informed and updated about the weather. She says that many people do not realize how common tornados in the fall. "Most of the tornadoes do occur in April and May when you would expect them them to, but we do see an increase in tornadoes from September to November and January to March"

Wielgos says that during the fall, the transition of faster winds and cooler weather can cause strong storms to occur increasing he likelihood of tornadoes. She suggests people get a weather alert radio and be cautious.

In the southern states, tornado frequency peaks in March through May; while in the northern states, peak frequency is during the summer months. Along the gulf coast, a secondary tornado maximum occurs during the fall. In the western states, the total number of tornadoes is higher than indicated. Sparse population reduces the number reported. Map illustrating months of peak tornado activity by state (1950-1991). (NOAA/NWS)

[NuclearDem]

21. It's not odd at all for tornadoes in the fall.

In fact, if there weren't tornadoes in the fall, I'd be surprised.

Tornadoes form with thunderstorms and during periods of temperature transition. Spring is the heaviest, fall is the next on the list.

[eqfan592]

23. Ill averages 1 a month in the month of Nov.

Today alone they got far more than that. And this sort of thing is increasing in frequency as time goes by.

[NuclearDem]

24. Point taken.

Climate change isn't helping the situation at all.

But it's just a patently bogus claim made by the OP that this ember happens in fall in this region. I've lived in Indiana most of my life, and tornadoes in the fall are just a fact of the seasons changing.

[eqfan592]

35. Agreed, tho perhaps in the specific part of Ill the OP is from they are far more rare.

Northern Ill would likely take after WI more than southern Ill in this regard, and WI has far fewer tornadoes. That would not, however, change the fact that Ill does indeed experience tornadoes all year around.

[Lugnut]

25. Not in my neck of the woods either.

In NE PA we were more concerned about hurricanes in the Fall.

[DallasNE]

26. There Was A 2 Day Tornado Outbreak In Nebraska And Iowa In October

So this is all new. About 2-3 years ago there was a small tornado outbreak on New Years Eve in Missouri. But you're right, September through January used to be tornado free. And one of these tornados today was an EF-4, which is the next to strongest.

[Art_from_Ark]

42. That New Year's Eve tornado outbreak also occurred in Arkansas

A small town called Cincinnati near the Oklahoma border got the brunt of it. There were also December tornadoes in the state the following year.

When I was growing up in Arkansas, we never, ever heard of winter tornadoes occurring in the state. And we never heard of Halloween snow, or could even imagine a May snow, yet both have occurred within the past 10 years or so.

[AtheistCrusader]

27. Depth of winter? What?

Winter doesn't start until the 21st of December.

[mnhtnbb]

29. We lived in MO and NE from 1988-2000 and I do not remember ever

being concerned about tornadoes in November.

[AverageJoe90]

37. Tragic for sure, but I *really* don't see how climate change played into this particular event.

Yeah, granted, I think it could potentially be a part of a larger trend that may or may not develop, or continue to develop, perhaps(we could use the 11/9/2002 event as a starter) over the next couple of decades; that is certainly possible given what we know now. But the simple truth is, we just don't know for sure, not at this stage.

And it's also important to remember that these things have happened before, yes, even in the depth of winter on (rare) occasions; the Jan. 24th, 1967 event near St. Louis was a good example. So would be the Dec. 18th, 1957 event that produced an F5 tornado that wiped out Murphysboro. There was also an outbreak in early Jan. of 1949 that badly affected a good swath of Arkansas, and even one in late Dec. 1947 that happened across much of the Southeast. And all of these events happened before global climate change began in the late '70s.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

38. There is always a certain amount of confirmation bias here, however

I can't speak for Illinois....

But tornadoes in New England....we have one or a warning and people flood on here and say "OMG, who ever heard of a tornado in Massachusetts!!! Global warming!!!", when one of the deadliest in US history took place in downtown Worcester in late spring of '53. The type of weather that spawns tornadoes is often influenced by certain geography that western Massachusetts provides.

Global warming of course does not help. But using random weather events as proof of it while ignoring history or at least not checking it first is as silly as the teabaggers who deny it by saying a snowstorm in late October or early April is "Yuk yuk, global warming!!!"....(well it kinda is baked into the pie, but that's another story.....)

[CFLDem]

39. This type of weather has been pretty normal

for the last 20 something years I lived in IL (I'm under 30).

Business as usual as far as I'm concerned. And yes, winter tornados (albeit isolated) have always been a thing.

[malaise]

40. And this weekend sure was warm in the mid-west

They will learn.

[truebluegreen]

41. Not soon enough, but they will.

[Jokerman]

43. I witnessed a late October tornado in Indiana in 1988.

They're a rarity but they do happen.

[bvar22]

44. Record HIGH temps in Arkansas yesterday...

and not by just a little.
The previous record HIGH was smashed by over 4 degrees Fahrenheit.
(Arkansas was the anchor of the storm line that produced the Tornadoes in Illinois).

Everybody KNOWS that Tornadoes are driven by atmospheric heating.

Combine this with the RECORD storm that hit the Philippines a couple of days ago,
and everyone should be worried.

Those in this thread trying to discount this phenomenon should be ashamed.