...Three reasons not to count President Obama out

[babylonsister]

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/11/30/all-is-not-lost-three-reasons-not-to-count-president-obama-out/

All is not lost: Three reasons not to count President Obama out
By Ana Marie Cox, The Guardian
Saturday, November 30, 2013 10:31 EST


The roll-out of the Affordable Care Act has hatched a spasm of obituaries for Obama’s second term, and more than a few for Liberalism as We Know It. That’s right, Error 404: Ideology Not Found. At best, pundits have surmised that Obama’s popularity will never recover. Comparisons between the implementation of insurance exchanges and the Iraq War or Katrina, as infuriating as they are (how many times do we have to say it: Bush lied, people died; website crashed, people complained on Twitter) do suggest that a mid-term catastrophic failure can derail an entire presidential agenda. Charlie Cook, writing in The National Journal, had the most concise rebuttal of this theory: it’s way too early to tell. Or, put as a critique of the logic behind the death notices: pundits tend to think that any given political situation is static, but the truth is that a variety of circumstances can change either voters’ perspective or the real impact of presidential actions. Here’s a few things that could lift Obama out of his slump.

1. Wait until you see the other guy

Obama benefits when he can function in full campaign mode and present an “apples to apples” comparison to voters. When the GOP primary ramps up, he’ll get a chance to do this again. His last sustained high in approval came in November 2012; that 56% high-water mark was in the week after the Newtown shootings and many attributed it to a “rally around the flag” surge in patriotism, but the week previous – in the direct aftermath of the elections – it had been at 54%. In fact, Obama sporadic surges throughout 2012 all came after voters were given a chance to think about another specific politician doing the same specific job, most notably after the Democratic and Republican conventions in late summer.

The White House’s attempts to push non-ACA stories is clearly an attempt to take advantage of this strength. Whereas the ACA has made it possible for the GOP to simply point at the mess and not necessarily offer solutions, when it comes to immigration reform or foreign policy, Obama has a chance to define himself against an existing set of competing ideas. Think of that situation as judging two applicants for a position: Obama interviews better. Contrast this to what happens when, say, you have two teams on a field playing a penalty-ridden scoreless game (such as during the budget negotiations): spectators are disgusted by both sides. (Some strategists in the GOP seem to believe that such chaos has at least short-term benefits for their side, hence their glee in perpetuating it.)

2. The Republican Party is fighting itself

snip//

3. The success stories from the ACA will come out

The dysfunctional exchange websites have meant that ACA “success stories” – struggling families gaining health insurance they once could not afford – are all but buried, while conservatives push into that void the “horror stories” of relatively affluent self-insured households (on Fox at least, many of the featured case-studies seem to have existing ideological objections to the ACA). As the roll-out has continued, however, the trickle of stories about working-class families breathing easier (and thus contributing to a more robust economy) thanks to the ACA exchanges has gained strength. The numbers will eventual outweigh the anecdotes: Republicans have counted about one million Californians as among those to whom Obama broke his “if you like it, you can keep it” promise. But it’s estimated that about two million residents, including almost all of the holders of those cancelled policies, will receive subsidies to purchase insurance plans that pass the ACA minimum requirements (aka, better plans) that are also ultimately cheaper – even if the premiums are higher, their out-of-pocket expenses will go down thanks to fully covered preventive care, lower deductibles and no penalties for previously existing conditions.

The California numbers reflect analysis that takes into consideration not just cancelled policies but all those who might benefit from subsidies, but even if one sticks to the outcomes for those with cancelled plans, the picture is far from bleak – in North Carolina, 60% of those with cancelled policies will qualify for subsidies; in Florida, 66 percent; in Utah, 84% do. Between five and six million people who do not qualify for the Medicaid expansion and are currently uninsured – arguably the precise demographic for whom the ACA was created – will get subsidies that cancel out entirely the cost of the cheapest policies available, at least one million more Americans than have had their existing policies cancelled. The individual stories of these policy holders exist with or without a functioning federal website, and some reporters have found them, so they will just take longer to get out. But they will get out.

[Cha]

1. Never thought he would be "out" even as the US corporatemediawhore$

are trying their damndest to make it so. But, it's good to see others who realize it are putting out the good news about ACA!

Don't call it Obamacare

trickling trickle trickle trickle

[freshwest]

3. Yes, I used that joke: Okay, let's make a deal. Don't fund Obamacare! Fund the ACA!

They get real quiet, then their heads explode when the thought finishes bouncing around in the rightwing echo chamber inside their skulls...

[Cha]

4. You're a good

Obamacare warrior, fresh!

[freshwest]

5. And you're a good warrior in all things, Cha...

[Cha]

7. Hey U 2!

[freshwest]

2. There are so many excellent rebuttals originating from DU. Two that I've used successfully:

Last edited Sat Nov 30, 2013, 09:53 PM - Edit history (1)

1) Why would anyone want a JUNK insurance policy?

The ACA got rid of denial of care of pre-existing conditions. We'll all get sick and die, it's a pre-existing condition. Why gamble with a JUNK policy that denies the obvious?

2) So what if the ACA website doesn't work fast?

Social Security didn't have a website for 60 years. It worked all those years without it!

I flummoxed a teabagger using 1) and 2), a person who had created some simple websites, said it shouldn't be hard.

I asked, did your website cover 50 states and territories all with different laws, for 300+ million people?

Did it take into account each and every one of people's different needs and financial ability and find companies to accept them?

Did Social Security survive 60 years without a website?

And it was game, set and match.

Easy, thanks to DU.

[Merlot]

13. Good points all. One more: ACA is much more than a website

The insurers that wanted to offer plans had to meet the requirements. Medicare rules were changed, re-imbursments were changed. It affects our whole insurance system. It's huge. It's not just a website. If there were NO website, you would still be able to enroll via pone or mail.

Loved the part where the person who created some "simple websites" said it shouldn't be hard! To bad they didn't bid the project.

[Voice for Peace]

6. I am so glad I don't follow the pundits because I had NO IDEA

The roll-out of the Affordable Care Act has hatched a spasm of obituaries for Obama’s second term, and more than a few for Liberalism as We Know It. That’s right, Error 404: Ideology Not Found. At best, pundits have surmised that Obama’s popularity will never recover.

This sounds like utter nonsense to me even though I
respect her reporting. I don't have that impression of him
or his second term at all. I bet MANY people don't have
that impression of him. It is beltway propaganda brought
to you by General Electric or somebody.

[freshwest]

8. GE and the rest of the 'we bring wars to life' crowd. I don't believe them, either.

But unfortunately, many do.

[babylonsister]

11. I've heard and read about the obits.

Chuck Todd, adding fuel, just as a for instance...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014642412

Chuck Todd Grills Obama: Was the ‘You Can Keep Your Plan’ Line a ‘Political Lie’?

[TomClash]

9. Count him out? Huh?

[LWolf]

10. Out of what, exactly?

Out of claiming the ACA as a positive political legacy? Is that what the ACA is about?

I THOUGHT it was supposed to be about getting "affordable" "care" to the masses of people who need it, even though the law itself is about insurance.

It's good to know that the ACA's value lies in political points for one politician; that it's about Obama, and not health care.

Because that's clearly what's important.

[babylonsister]

12. No, lame duck status is

being foisted on him.

https://www.google.com/search?q=obama%20lame%20duck&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US fficial&client=firefox-a&channel=np&source=hp

And you can google impeachment links.

[LWolf]

14. Why would I want to do that?

Google impeachment links? I've heard enough to know it's a bunch of right-wing nonsense. I don't need to give it more time and energy.

"Foisted?" Isn't that what "lame duck" means? A politician who won't be running for re-election?

Again, is it all about Obama and his "legacy," or is it about actual people getting actual health care? Is it political chess, or is it about helping people?

[MineralMan]

15. Instead of counting Obama "out," let's count votes and vote Democrats "in"

in the Congressional races in 2014. Now, there's an idea that will have a real impact on the President's last two years in office. What do you say? Are you in?

GOTV 2014!