Fukushima - German physicist: "The probability that the rescue succeeds goes to zero"

[JohnyCanuck]

pixigirl @ http://forum.maplewoodonline.com/discussion/comment/2390392 writes:

Wow I wish you guys could read this article in the "German Economics Paper" a very very well regarded paper. The news on Fukushima is really scary! Not sure why the US papers seem to overlook it.

I translated as much as I could...
Fukushima - German physicist: "The probability that the rescue succeeds goes to zero"

The German physicist Sebastian Pfugbeil is extremely pessimistic that an elementary Fukushima disaster can be averted. The consequences would be felt over the entire northern hemisphere.

Pflugbeil explains the situation in Fukushima:
"The situation is becoming increasingly critical due to the decay of the buildings. The fuel rods have not been brought to safety. The reactor blocks are sinking. The ground on which the reactor sits can no longer bear any weight...It is floating. There has been such dramatic shifts that there are 1 meter height differences between one corner to the other which have caused massive cracks in the building structure resulting in alarming cracks in the building foundation and soundness."

Pflugbeil to the dangers:
"If the fuel rods can no longer be cooled, it will be a disaster. Then huge amounts of radioactivity are released. All it needs is a crack in the cooling pools and all the cooling water to run out. The fuel rods would ignite. The fuel rod outer shells are made of zirconium. If it burns, you can not get it under control. Once the shells break then radioactivity flows freely - gaseous, volatile, medium volatile. Also once this happens the heat will ignite the fuel rods in the other blocks of the nuclear power plant. All employee must leave the area due to the extreme radiation exposure as soon as one fuel rod catches fire. It requires only a small earthquake or a storm surge or simply the failure of building structures to set this disaster in motion."

The rescue plan of the Japanese:
"The Japanese will first extract the 1,300 fuel rods in Unit 4 individually. Even if only one is broken, the workers have to evacuate immediately. This is an extremely complicated and lengthy process. How difficult it is became clear if you have witnessed the test run they made on an unused fuel rod. They lifted the rod out with their hands! Their Hands! The active fuel rods can not be handle with one hand, that would be fatal. The probability that the rescue is successful is zero."

http://forum.maplewoodonline.com/discussion/comment/2390392

Link to German original:

Fukushima: „Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Rettung gelingt, geht gegen Null“
Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten | Veröffentlicht: 09.10.13, 03:37 | 375 Kommentare

Der deutsche Physiker Sebastian Pfugbeil ist äußerst pessimistisch, dass eine elementare Katastrophe in Fukushima abgewendet werden kann. Die Folgen würden die gesamte Nordhalbkugel der Erde zu spüren bekommen. Pflugbeil: „Die Menschheit könnte beim Scheitern der Versuche, die gebrauchten Brennelemente des KKW Fukushima zu bergen, in einer bisher nicht gekannten Weise durch Strahlen geschädigt werden.“

[RobertEarl]

1. Ahem...

Hate to say this but much of what the chap is worried about has already happened. Fuel rods did burn. Reactor cores melted. Containments were breached. Radiation of the most awful amounts has already wafted around the world.

Stay tuned for more news. We now return you to the regular programming....

[BlueToTheBone]

2. And people are all freaked out about some asshole

on teevee.

I wonder how long the fires will burn. 100 years? forever?

[madokie]

3. october 14,

this is old news
not even sure its relevant anymore.

[Demo_Chris]

4. I think the professionals have a handle on this...

At least as well as anyone can.