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What a crock of shit from Gallup (Original Post) bigdarryl Jan 2014 OP
Explain which States you disagree with... brooklynite Jan 2014 #1
What is this map supposed to represent, exactly? Art_from_Ark Jan 2014 #2
This is party identification by those polled; 'competitive' is where the difference is less than 5% muriel_volestrangler Jan 2014 #8
Arkansas,Louisiana, Texas, Georgia are all geek tragedy Jan 2014 #3
Georgia might not be deep red down the road a little. pampango Jan 2014 #9
I live in Ga. I'll believe this when I see it happen n2doc Jan 2014 #10
When Democrats start winning there, it can be considered competitive. Even the Washington Generals geek tragedy Jan 2014 #13
Using current trends to guess at the future is certainly more dicey than recognizing changes after pampango Jan 2014 #15
Certainly it could be competitive one day. geek tragedy Jan 2014 #16
Pennsylvania? Jeff In Milwaukee Jan 2014 #4
True or false: they elected Tom Corbett four years ago brooklynite Jan 2014 #5
He was elected over Dan Onorato Orrex Jan 2014 #6
As a said... Jeff In Milwaukee Jan 2014 #18
I was agreeing with you. Orrex Jan 2014 #21
Then we'll just have to agree to agree on this....(nt) Jeff In Milwaukee Jan 2014 #22
Not so fast, buddy. Orrex Jan 2014 #23
PA: Republican governor, Repubs won about half of the House Representative vote in 2012 muriel_volestrangler Jan 2014 #7
Two words: Corbett and Toomey nt geek tragedy Jan 2014 #14
The 2010 election cycle put a lot of one-and-done's in office (nt) Jeff In Milwaukee Jan 2014 #20
Looks about right to me SoCalDem Jan 2014 #12
If Texas becomes a toss-up state the GOPers are in huge trouble. DCBob Jan 2014 #19
Irrelevant. I mean ProSense Jan 2014 #11
fat lot of good that 22-10 edge did us in 2010 nt geek tragedy Jan 2014 #17

Art_from_Ark

(27,247 posts)
2. What is this map supposed to represent, exactly?
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 09:02 AM
Jan 2014

What is a "competitive state"?

I see Arkansas is shown as "competitive", and yet the state, which until recently had been one of America's most solidly Democratic states outside of presidential elections, has been trending toward the Republicans, and even at the state level the Republicans are making big inroads. The state's only remaining Democratic representative in Congress, Senator Mark Pryor, is said to be fighting a tough battle with his wacky Republican opponent, Tom Cotton. In Arkansas, when a Democrat named Pryor is in trouble, you know things are not going well.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,307 posts)
8. This is party identification by those polled; 'competitive' is where the difference is less than 5%
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 09:54 AM
Jan 2014

Those who identify as 'Democratic', or 'leans Democratic' among independents, and similarly for Republicans.

Gallup determines the party orientation of each state by subtracting the total percentage of adults identifying as or leaning Republican from those identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic, thus creating a "Democratic advantage" figure. Positive values indicate a state is more Democratic than Republican, while negative values indicate it is more Republican than Democratic. Taking the partisan leanings of independents into account gives a better picture of the parties' relative strength in each state, as independents who lean toward a particular party typically vote for that party's candidates. Additionally, the percentage of total independents (before leaners are allocated to the parties) varies widely by state, from 30% in Kentucky to 55% in New Hampshire, which may mask latent partisanship.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/167030/not-states-lean-democratic-2013.aspx#1
 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
3. Arkansas,Louisiana, Texas, Georgia are all
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 09:13 AM
Jan 2014

deep red states. Especially the latter two, which haven't elected a single Democrat to statewide office in the past decade.

By the same token, Virginia has been rather unkind to Republicans over the same stretch.

pampango

(24,692 posts)
9. Georgia might not be deep red down the road a little.
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 09:58 AM
Jan 2014
Between the “reverse migration” of African Americans from Northern cities to places like the Atlanta metropolitan area, and the rapid pace of Latino immigration, Georgia has seen a dramatic demographic shift in the last ten years. So much so, in fact, that it was nearly competitive in the 2008 presidential election. Optimistic Democrats believe that this is the year where the party has a shot at statewide office, but at least one Republican—a contender for the Republican Senate nomination in the state—disagrees

“The only way Georgia is going to change is if we have all these illegal aliens in here in Georgia, give them the right to vote,” said Tea Party congressman Paul Broun on a local radio show, “It would be morally wrong, it would be illegal to do so, under our current law.” He continues: “Actually, all these illegal aliens are getting federal largesse and taking taxpayers’ dollars. That’s the only way this state is going to become Democratic again, in the next number of decades,” he said.

Broun is right about one thing: At 425,000, Georgia has one of the largest populations of undocumented immigrants in the United States. Otherwise, everything here is false. There is no immigration bill that would give immediate citizenship to undocumented immigrants—the “Gang of Eight” proposal has a decade-long “path to citizenship”—and it’s simply not true that immigrants are “getting federal largess”; without authorization, immigrants are barred from most federal benefit programs.

If Broun were just a fringe figure, you could ignore these comments. But he echoes a whole host of Republicans who have done nothing but alienate immigrant communities—including Latinos and Asian Americans—with dehumanizing rhetoric (immigration advocates oppose use of the term “illegal alien”). What’s more, because of his popularity with base voters in Georgia, he stands a decent chance of winning the nomination and representing the GOP in the state’s Senate race this fall. In which case, he becomes a huge liability to the Republican Party and its diversity efforts.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/01/07/illegal-aliens-will-take-your-tax-dollars-turn-georgia-blue-says-tea-party-republican.html

n2doc

(47,953 posts)
10. I live in Ga. I'll believe this when I see it happen
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 10:08 AM
Jan 2014

Just wait, we will be sending Senator Broun up north to 'represent' us. The guy who says that evolution is a lie from the pit of hell. Just wait. I keep voting for sane people and keep seeing nutcases elected from here.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
13. When Democrats start winning there, it can be considered competitive. Even the Washington Generals
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 10:34 AM
Jan 2014

won every once in a while.

Michigan is more competitive than Georgia.

pampango

(24,692 posts)
15. Using current trends to guess at the future is certainly more dicey than recognizing changes after
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 10:39 AM
Jan 2014

they have happened.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
16. Certainly it could be competitive one day.
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 10:42 AM
Jan 2014

But, until both sides show they can win statewide races there, it's hard to call it competitive today.

Jeff In Milwaukee

(13,992 posts)
4. Pennsylvania?
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 09:20 AM
Jan 2014

Hasn't done for the GOP since 1988. Is it a close state? Sure. Could a lousy Democratic candidate lose it? Sure. But it's not competitive in the same way as North Carolina or Ohio.

I suspect someone has their thumb on the scale on behalf of the RNC.

brooklynite

(94,503 posts)
5. True or false: they elected Tom Corbett four years ago
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 09:26 AM
Jan 2014

I don't think most Democratic Presidential candidates, even Hillary Clinton, would assume Pennsylvania is safely in their corner.

Orrex

(63,203 posts)
6. He was elected over Dan Onorato
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 09:30 AM
Jan 2014

Even on his home turf of Pittsburgh, Onorato was seen as a longshot.

Corbett's "victory" tells us less about the state as a whole than about that particular gubernatorial election.

Jeff In Milwaukee

(13,992 posts)
18. As a said...
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 09:45 PM
Jan 2014

A lousy candidate can still lose. And states can be freaky in Presidential v. Gubernatorial elections. Take Minnesota.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,307 posts)
7. PA: Republican governor, Repubs won about half of the House Representative vote in 2012
Wed Jan 29, 2014, 09:44 AM
Jan 2014
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/11/republicans-gerrymandering-house-representatives-election-chart

(and because they got control of the state legislature in 2010, they translated that into an unfair seat advantage. But this did still manage to get about as many House votes in the state as Democrats did).

Gallup list it as a Democratic advantage of 3 points. That seems reasonable. Yeah, Ohio is +0.4% for Dems, and NC +0.6% for Repubs, so it's not as competitive as those two, in Gallup's opinion as well as yours. The Republican equivalent leads are Georgia (2.9%) and Missouri (3.1%).
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