Q4 GDP: Solid Report, Positives Looking Forward

[ProSense]

Q4 GDP: Solid Report, Positives Looking Forward

by Bill McBride

The advance Q4 GDP report, with 3.2% annualized growth, was slightly above expectations. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 3.3% annualized rate - a solid pace.

However the Federal Government subtracted 0.98 percentage points from growth in Q4, and residential investment subtracted 0.32 percentage points. Imagine no Federal austerity - Q4 GDP would have been above 4%. Luckily it appears austerity at the Federal level will diminish in 2014, and of course I expect that residential investment will make a solid contribution this year.

Change in private inventories made another positive contributions in Q4 (added 0.42 percentage points). I expect inventories will probably be a drag in 2014.

On a Q4-over-Q4 basis, real GDP increased 2.7% (above the Fed's December projections of 2.2% to 2.3%). On an annual basis, real GDP increased 1.9%. Note: See GDP: Annual and Q4-over-Q4 for the difference in calculations.

- more -

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/01/q4-gdp-solid-report-positives-looking.html

Steve Benen:

The congressional Republicans’ government shutdown, for example, shaved about 0.3% from the overall total. That’s a difference, in other words, between 3.2% growth and 3.5% growth. It’s still not clear exactly why GOP lawmakers did this, or what they hoped to accomplish, but there’s evidence now that the gambit took a toll on the economy.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/gop-shutdown-steps-economic-growth

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. K&R!

[ProSense]

2. Fourth Quarter GDP Driven By Consumption, Health Care Spending Continues to Slow

Fourth Quarter GDP Driven By Consumption, Health Care Spending Continues to Slow

Written by Alan Barber

The economy grew at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter following a 4.1 percent rise in the third quarter. This is the best two quarter performance since the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012 when the economy grew at 4.9 percent and 3.7 percent annual rates, respectively. Consumption grew at a 3.3 percent rate, accounting for 70.6 percent of the growth in the quarter. Investment continued the weakness it has shown over the last two years, growing at just a 3.8 percent annual rate. Somewhat surprisingly, housing fell at a 9.8 percent annual rate, its first decline since the third quarter of 2010.

Interestingly, the rate of inventory accumulation increased to $127.2 billion, one of the most rapid paces on record. This likely means slower growth in future quarters as slower accumulations will be a drag on growth. Imports were little changed in the quarter. As a result, trade added 1.33 percentage points to growth. Much of this was offset by a sharp drop in spending at the federal level which subtracted 0.98 percentage points from growth. This will not be repeated in future quarters.

One item of clearly positive news was the slow growth in health care costs. Spending on health care services rose at just a 3.6 percent annual rate in the quarter. This means that health care spending is continuing to fall as a share of GDP.

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/cepr-blog/fourth-quarter-gdp-driven-by-consumption