Paul Ryan Is the Odds-On Favorite to Win the Republican Nomination in 2016

[cali]

There's been a lot of blathering about who the front-runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is, and so far I've resisted taking part. But I guess I'm kind of curious: Is there much of a case to be made for anyone other than Paul Ryan?

On the substantive side, Ryan sure seems like he's setting himself up for a run. There's his steady series of "unheralded" anti-poverty outreach trips that always manage to be just heralded enough to get sympathetic press coverage. He brokered a budget deal with Patty Murray that was businesslike and low-drama but didn't alienate the tea party crowd too badly. Today, in a hearing about the CBO's report on Obamacare, he acknowledged that the report didn't say that employers would be cutting jobs—points for intellectual honesty!—while also calling Obamacare a "poverty trap"—points for demagoguery! This is all stuff that seems very delicately calculated to stay in the good graces of the tea party base while building up plenty of policy substance cred that will keep him attractive to moderate voters.

On the flip side, who are his big competitors? Chris Christie is toast. Marco Rubio is inexperienced to begin with, and then muffed his chance for statesmanlike glory when he staked his reputation on immigration reform and came up empty. Jeb Bush can't even get his mother's endorsement. Scott Walker is getting buzz, but he strikes me as having too much baggage. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are novelty candidates, not to be taken seriously. And although I used to think Bobby Jindal might have a chance, he's had a rough past couple of years.

Maybe I'm dismissing all these guys a little too glibly. Walker and Bush are certainly serious possibilities. And I admit that Ryan doesn't always give off a vibe that says he's running for president. And of course, we're still a couple of years away from 2016, anything can happen, blah blah blah.

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http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/02/paul-ryan-odds-favorite-win-republican-nomination-2016

[Voice for Peace]

1. Hilary would eat him alive...

[bullwinkle428]

2. I still think the smart money's on Jebbie-Boy.

Everyone loves a "rematch"!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. I distinctly remember one of his close friends saying there were too

many skeletons. But, if he does, I like it. I like anyone who already has a negative and no clean slate going into it. His - his dipshit mass-murderer brother.

[Capt. Obvious]

3. House member won't win

It will be Huckabee if he runs. He should be feared - national following now.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. Yes, but didn't he just make those absurd comments about women's libidos?

Can't believe no one brought that up during the discussion on mojoe the other day.

[kelliekat44]

4. There is so much material out there for Dems to use against any GOP thug but they aren't using it.

There are no hard-hitting ads to refute the Kock ad onslaught. What the hell are they waiting for?? Except for the racism and ignorance of a few the races should not even be close. I don't see or hear of any huge movements to get people registered to vote. And I don't see any ads enticing younger people to help make the ACA a success by signing up. It's the perfect opportunity to explain to the younger generation that their parents and grandparents will not have to work longer and harder just to keep expensive health insurance AND this could mean more jobs opening up for them. But the Dems choose to let the "Obamacare-will-eliminate-jobs" lie go virtually unchallenged except for the MSNBC left-leaning pundits.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

7. If you read Double Down - that strategy you speak of is EXACTLY what

the Obama team did to Robme. Defined him at precisely the right time. They should start doing general republican trashing NOW

[ladjf]

8. If Ryan is nominated, he will be the dumbest candidate in Modern History. nt

[PeaceNikki]

9. pffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffft

He's never won a statewide election and hasn't a chance in a national.

[Gothmog]

10. Ryan does not come off as being presidential

I think that Ryan looks like a kid. I just do not see Ryan looking presidential