Congressional Elections Have Little to Do with National Politics.

[MineralMan]

We have 435 Congressional districts. Each and every one of those districts elects its own member of the House of Representatives. In each district, only the voters in that district choose who will represent them. Every election in every district is a local election, separate from Senate elections or any nationwide candidate.

In 2014, there will be no Presidential election. There will, however, be 435 elections for the House. Democrats need to pick up at least 17 seats to regain majority control in the House of Representatives. Seventeen.

It's widely recognized that there are districts in which a Democrat simply cannot be elected. Many of those are in our southern states, along with a few Midwestern states, but there are such districts scattered across the nation. Except for those districts, however, there is the potential for a Democrat to win. Which Democrat? That depends on the individual district, since every Congressional election is a local election.

I live in Minnesota. We have just 8 congressional districts. Five of those have Democratic congressional members now. Three have Republicans. Two of those districts that are currently held by Republicans have the potential to be won by a Democrat. One of those, CD-6 is now represented by Michele Bachmann, who won in 2012 by only 1% of the vote. She's not running in 2014, thank goodness. That district, which had its boundaries changed after the 2010 census, has the best potential to elect a Democrat and gain a seat. My own district, CD-4 neighbors that district, and is represented by a progressive Democrat, Betty McCollum, who will easily win in 2014. So, my focus will be on CD-6, where I will work to elect the Democratic candidate. Given that district's demographics, a Democrat who can win will not be a true progressive, but will vote with the Democratic caucus in the House. I will campaign hard for that Democrat and work to get out the Democratic and Independent vote for that candidate.

The two other Republican held districts are also vulnerable, but the district with John Kline as the incumbent is most susceptible to electing a Democrat. John Kline is considering running for the Senate against Al Franken. If he does, that district will also be seriously in play in 2014. A strong GOTV effort in that district has a high probability of success.

Almost every state is in a similar situation. Some districts are potential Democratic wins. How can a Democrat win? Here's how:

Turnout. If Democrats turn out and vote in November, and in numbers that rival those in 2012, Democrats will win enough seats in vulnerable districts currently represented by Republicans to retake majority control. Turnout. How does turnout happen? It happens when local Democratic activists go to work to make that turnout happen. It's really up to the local Democrats in those districts to make it happen.

Wherever you are, you can help. If your own district is so Republican that there's no chance, look at nearby districts where there is the possibility of a switch and work there. If your own district is sure to elect the Democrat, look for districts where a great turnout can guarantee a win for a Democrat over a Republican incumbent or an open seat. Work there. Volunteer to canvass precincts, work a phone bank, or do whatever it takes to GOTV. Find Democratic candidate who can win with high turnout and help make that turnout happen.

If a Democratic incumbent appears to be vulnerable in a district or a Democratic district will have an open seat, that district also needs help with GOTV efforts.

It's a proven strategy. It has worked before, and it can work again, if people turn out and work hard.

One thing's certain, if no effort is made, it won't happen. Don't listen to anyone who tells you there's no hope of taking back majority control in the House. They are simply incorrect. We need just 17 pickups. We can make it happen!

GOTV 2014 and Beyond!

[Scuba]

1. I disagree that "... there are districts in which a Democrat simply cannot be elected."

Certainly we've proven that Democrats running a half-inch to the left of Republicans cannot be elected, but this statement overlooks the 50% or more of potential voters who don't bother because neither Party offers them a good reason.

It's in appealing to these folks where Democrats can win. Ignoring them is a recipe for losing.

[MineralMan]

3. Show me. Seriously.

Show me such a district where a real progressive has won a seat in such a district. I know about Bernie Sanders, but show me another one. I'm not convinced.

Pick a district and run such a candidate in it. Campaign on that basis and see if the candidate wins. Pick any district, anywhere in the country and make it an experiment. If that experiment produces the result you predict, then I will change my mind about how this all works.

[Scuba]

4. Show me where we've tried and failed.

[MineralMan]

5. Show me where we've tried.

I'm not aware of any such Congressional race that fits your description.

[Scuba]

8. So why not give it a try?

[MineralMan]

13. My own congressional district is solidly represented by

Betty McCollum. She's a progressive and will win handily in her district again. I am active in the DFL and participate in our caucus and convention system as a precinct chair and convention delegate. In my own district, I can influence who runs for office. I can't participate in that process in other districts, because participation is limited to residents of the district.

So, in districts other than my own, I can only participate in campaigning and GOTV efforts.

Click the precinct website link in my signature line. You'll see what my level of participation is. All of the districts, state and federal in which I reside are represented by progressives. We're always working to keep it that way.

[Scuba]

14. Good on ya, man, but why make statements like "there are districts in which a Democrat ...

... simply cannot be elected."?

[MineralMan]

15. Because it is the truth.

Sometimes, the truth is not pleasant, but it remains the truth. I can show you numerous districts in many states where getting any Democrat or progressive elected is an impossibility, as can anyone who watches congressional elections.

[Scuba]

16. We don't know that; we've never tried.

[bemildred]

2. Except when they do. nt

[MineralMan]

6. Still, every election for a House member is a local election.

Every last one. It's one place where grassroots efforts can do amazing things, no matter what outside influences occur.

[bemildred]

7. It is rare, but national issues do apply.

We kicked their asses well in 2012, despite predictions, because they pissed off women and latinos. That can most definitely happen again.

We've been stable politically since the 70s, more or less, but that is changing, IMHO. The wind is up. Anything is on the table until we get our house in order.

Edit: I am not at all disagreeing with you about getting people out to vote. I'm saying this is the best time to do that, and it is far from a hopeless cause.

[MineralMan]

10. Our congressmembers certainly have national issues

to deal with, and those do affect their election. My only point here is that those elections are all local and voting is limited to that particular congressional district.

In any local election, there is the potential for a strong candidate of the party that is not the usual one in power to win, based on local name identification and other things. And a strong candidate with broad acceptance within the district is what is needed to switch a district's normal party voting. A strong candidate helps bring out the voters who otherwise wouldn't bother.

The time, however, for selecting candidates to run in districts is rapidly running out, so candidates need to be in place already, pretty much. There's still time to file in many jurisdictions, though.

[bemildred]

11. Quite right. nt

[Blue_Tires]

9. National politics do play a role in many places

In 2010, our district race was essentially decided by which candidate hated Obamacare more...The Dem-lite incumbent was proud to say he voted against it, but the GOP challenger swore up and down in every commercial he'd get it repealed...I don't need to tell you who we're stuck with to this very day...

[MineralMan]

12. Those are national issues that have impact locally.

There are lots of those, but the decisions of who to vote for are made on how those issues affect district voters. That's what I mean by local.

[WorseBeforeBetter]

18. If Kay Hagan (D) loses in November, Obamacare will be the primary reason.

The Koch brothers have a death-grip on NC, and they *ain't* letting up.

But in an interview, AFP President Tim Phillips said the group’s agenda rests strictly on one thing: Repealing Obamacare. And already this election season, it has spent $28 million blasting both Democratic Senate and House candidates since last August for their support of the controversial law.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/koch-brothers-kay-hagan-103406.html#ixzz2t6skFECp

We get no Medicaid expansion, almost no competition as far as ACA-participating insurers, and we may lose a Democratic senator. Amazing.

[MineralMan]

22. OK. What is the state Democratic Party doing to counter that effort?

Money is one thing. Grassroots campaigning is another. If every voter in NC who supports ACA and other progressive issues turns out and votes, the Koch Brothers will have wasted their money. How can you help to make that happen? How can other NC democrats help? Money isn't the only currency in elections. The people of NC have a voice, too. Make it heard.

Make it heard in North Carolina, not on DU. That's where it matters.

Start here: http://www.kayhagan.com/act/volunteer/

[WorseBeforeBetter]

24. Pony up to Kay Hagan... she needs help.

http://www.kayhagan.com/

Time or money are welcome. I especially call on those DUers who adamantly support Obamacare, and wish to keep the Senate "D" in 2014.

(WorseBeforeBetter, making it heard on DU!)

HKonJ, OccupyRaleigh, Moral Mondays, et al. have been "making it heard" for years, and will continue to "make it heard" for years to come. The state Democratic Party is a mess, IMO. Grassroots groups work tirelessly with voter registration, canvassing, fund-raising, etc. You're not telling us anything we don't already know.

This is the big leagues. And I'm wondering if The Big O should put on his comfortable shoes and help out Hagan. Howard Dean as DNC head would be all over this state, and I do see that DW-S will be in Chapel Hill in March:

http://www.lillianslist.org/events/lillians-list-2014-campaign-kickoff-luncheon

[MineralMan]

25. I'm sure NC Democrats are working hard on it.

Really, though, my post was about House seats. Senate seats are statewide and are not as locally-based as house races. In any case, I'm not in North Carolina. I have my hands full here in Minnesota, so NC will have to look to its own elections.

[msongs]

17. dems cold try giving people something worth voting for that wasn't rehashed repub nt

[MineralMan]

21. Who the nominee is in any congressional district is a local thing.

The people in the district have the power to choose their own candidate, after all. In fact, anyone can file to be a candidate quite easily as a Democrat. Winning the primary election is the next step. In fact, you could run in your district. You trust yourself, right? Then, all you need to do is put together a campaign that wins the primary and then campaign for the general election. How did you think all of that stuff happens?

If you don't like the candidates in your district, go file and run. It's your choice.

[HereSince1628]

19. Although, the activist billionaires' teaparty seems national & into congressional elections.

I suppose someone could argue that folks like the Kochs don't represent or contribute to "national politics."

But they certainly appear to have understood that state elections and legislative control was critical to gerrymandering of congressional districts that enable control of the House and much of the obstructive nastiness of this congress.

That seems to suggest that at least one major force in American politics actually does link congressional elections to national politics.

[MineralMan]

20. I'm not saying that national organizations do not contribute to

congressional campaigns. They certainly do, and on both sides. I'm saying that it is still the local voters make the decision, and a strong GOTV effort can turn any congressional election around. The DNCC helps fund Democratic congressional candidates they think can win. It often neglects others, though. If local Democrats take the campaign and GOTV effort seriously and focus on voter turnout heavily, they can change the course of history.

One thing's certain, though: Staying home on election day never works. Never. That's the thing we have to sell, starting now, and continuing until Election Day.

[MineralMan]

23. If you're not sure how to get involved,

go to this link to find your state's Democratic Party Organization website:

http://www.democrats.org/about/in_your_state/null

There's a drop-down list at the top that lets you pick your state. On the page that appears, the URL for your state's Democratic Party organization will show up. Click it, and you'll be able to find links to contact the local organization in your own districts and much, much more.

As an alternative, Google {state} Democratic Party

Find the link and get involved in your local party organization. That's the best place to start.

[CJCRANE]

26. K&R

[MineralMan]

27. I appreciate that!

Thanks.

[CJCRANE]

28. It's nice to K&R a positive, constructive post

I'm sometimes surprised at the OPs that turn into rec magnets.