The Hidden Demographic Shifts That Are Sinking The Republican Party

[babylonsister]

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2014/02/21/3315681/demographic-secrets-internet/#

The Hidden Demographic Shifts That Are Sinking The Republican Party

By Ruy Teixeira, Guest Blogger on February 21, 2014 at 9:47 am

Most people have gotten the sense that rising diversity is making life hard for the Republican Party; ditto for the rise of the notably progressive Millennial generation. But there’s a lot more to American demographics than that — and it turns out that some of the lesser-discussed demographic patterns are likely to do quite a bit of damage to Republicans’ electoral fortunes as well.

snip//

These trends have important political implications. First, the continued rise in the proportion of college graduates is a powerful factor moving us toward a more open and tolerant society (see this report from CAP). It also should reduce Democratic deficits among white voters since white college graduates are considerably less hostile to Democrats than white noncollege voters.

Second, these data indicate that, despite the existence of some mismatches between education and job (e.g., college grads from fancy schools who work as baristas or cab drivers), a college degree by and large remains the gateway to a satisfying and middle class life. That means making a college education attainable and affordable for a much larger segment of the population should be a high priority for progressives. And since the GOP’s commitment to enhancing economic mobility, as Sean McElwee has pointed out, is full-throated and unequivocal — except when it involves spending money — this is an issue where Democrats can draw a particularly sharp contrast between themselves and the GOP.

Finally, we’ve got a basic question of how old Republicans and Democrats are. Most coverage of generational politics focuses on the rising (and very liberal) Millennial generation. That is understandable, but there is more to generational politics than just one generation. It turns out, according to a new Gallup report, Baby Boomers (folks born from 1946-64) are also exerting a progressive pull on American politics:

Baby boomers constitute 32% of the U.S. adult population and, by Gallup’s estimate, 36% of the electorate in 2012, eclipsing all other generational groups. Baby boomers have dominated U.S. politics on the basis of their sheer numbers since the late 1970s, when most of the group had reached voting age….If the party preferences of each generational group were to hold steady in the coming years as the Democratic-leaning baby boomers gradually replace the more Republican Silent and Greatest generations, the country as a whole would likely become more Democratic.

Thus, over time, high-turnout seniors, currently the most conservative part of the electorate by age, will be liberalized as Baby Boomers age. Moreover, the most liberal part of the generation — those born up through 1955 and termed “early Boomers” — is frontloaded, so the political impact on the senior population could be fairly rapid.

So, the changing location, education levels, and age of the electorate suggest why the Republicans’ long-term disadvantages aren’t so bad as most people think. They’re worse.

[RKP5637]

1. Excellent, especially about the Baby Boomers replacing the more Republican Silent and Greatest

generations. We have them here, grumpy old men that stare at you if you don't look and act just like them, and they vote republican, falling for every republican tactic in the book.

[lbrtbell]

20. ?? Silents were/are mostly Democrats

They were the ones who voted for Kennedy and LBJ. It was the boomers who turned Yuppie and voted for Reagan and George H.W. Bush. The great liberal voices of the 1960's were Silents; the boomers were just starting to come of age then. The Silents fought for abortion rights, women's lib, desegregation, etc., and boomers simply joined the revolution as they grew up.

As a side note, the Silents I know personally are extremely upset by the Foxification of America. They had real journalists like Walter Cronkite, not charlatans like Bill O'Reilly.

And I'm not entirely sure the millennials will remain liberal. If you visit forums populated by them, there's a lot of dissatisfaction with both parties, as well as a growing (and ugly) libertarian movement against all things liberal. College students are getting the message that "real rape" is rare, feminism is evil...hardly liberal beliefs.

It scares the hell out of me.

[diane in sf]

22. The early Silents are probably more conservative

Than the later ones. And speaking as an early boomer, I have never voted for a Repug in my life. The early Silents still think there is actual news on the tv and many of them fell for the Fox and AM radio propaganda. The later ones are more like the early boomers. They came of age in the Civil Rights, Vietnam War protest, folk music and rock era.

[RKP5637]

24. Yes, it's somewhat of a convoluted toxic brew in that morphing is going on and it is

questionable IMO where it will end. One major factor that disturbs me is the rise of Idiocracy in the US. I'm astounded by the level of ignorance which IMO leads to very poor political decision making.

Sadly, often when it comes to big $$$$$, R=D=I and what is really good for everyone becomes far less of a priority.

I recall well in the sixties there being a divide between those of us who were more liberal and those who were stuck in their parent's generation and far more conservative believing in my country right or wrong. I imagine quite a few of them are avid Fox viewers today, at least the ones I know, for example.

[Victor_c3]

30. At least for my early-30 year old peers most of the dissatisfaction my generation has with both

parties is that, at least on economic issues, they are both very much dominated by corporatist. As far as the libertarian views, the parts that many of my peers agree with is in reducing our footprint and military entanglements worldwide - another facet both dem and repub leaders are very opposed to doing.

A statement like "both parties are essentially the same" wouldn't get a lot of opposition from my peers (although on social issues they are very different).

Please note that my observations are purely anecdotal. I work and interact with a small group of people with science and engineering degrees and I live in a pretty liberal area north of NYC.

However, that being said, I'm very optimistic that we'll see a major progressive shift in this country in the next decade or two. The current tea party movement and whatnot are just death spasms of the right. They are in "freak out" mode as they are realizing that they are on the steep downward part of the political cycle right now.

[Mojorabbit]

2. I like!

[RKP5637]

25. Even the flapping seals approve! LOL!

I love that gif.

[Cha]

3. KICK!

[rhett o rick]

4. As the Republican Party dies it is leaving us with only one party and it's conservative.

Corp-America is fine with a one party system when they own the one party that supports fracking, pipelines, trade agreements, tax breaks for the wealthy, no restrictions on Wall Street, cuts to Social Security.

[sheshe2]

5. Yes!

[reformist2]

6. What a polite way of saying that Republican-voting seniors are dying off!

I'd lol, but that's not really pc, is it.

[kelliekat44]

10. And, the GOP hypocritical evangelical extremism is also wearing thin. nt

[babylonsister]

11. Very circumspect, if I do say so myself!

If that's all it takes...

[RKP5637]

26. Decades ago I thought the same in the 60's when we were protesting, these old

farts will die off. Well, they did, and they are still here. Sadly, there seem to be many young ones just as conservative. That said, I think it's far better, but attrition in itself will not solve the RW conservative problem IMO. They are often like Whac-a-Moles!

[Loaded Liberal Dem]

7. Hidden?

I'd say it's pretty obvious

[hlthe2b]

8. Baby Boomers as they age, are asserting a progressive pull on politics: PLS NOTE YOUNGER DUERS!

There is a perception that when discussion comes around to older retired voters being more likely to be conservative, that that reflect BABY BOOMERS. That is not the case as, BB's are only starting to retire and to comprise that demographic.

Thus, over time, high-turnout seniors, currently the most conservative part of the electorate by age, will be liberalized as Baby Boomers age. Moreover, the most liberal part of the generation — those born up through 1955 and termed “early Boomers” — is frontloaded, so the political impact on the senior population could be fairly rapid.

I hope this concept can be disseminated widely as BB's have been sorely maligned in this respect IMO. Those old conservatives are also the lynchpin to Fox's "success" --and are dying off.

[RKP5637]

28. Many BB's IMO might be more conservative fiscially, but not with respect

to social agendas. To me, there is a huge gap between those who were youths in the 50's and those who were youths (late teens/20's) in the 60's/70's, at least from my perspective. I've always found those who were youths in the 50's to be quite conservative, but not as much with those from the 60's/70's.

We are not the same as those in the 50's and earlier, but get lumped into the same category. Just because someone ages does not mean they suddenly turn into old fart conservative republicans.

[hlthe2b]

35. Like a bell shaped-curve, you are discussing the outer bounds

The older boomers are moving on, as well as the tail end of the previous generation.

And this is discussing a trend overall. Obviously, this is NOT saying that ALL Baby Boomers are progressives.

[RKP5637]

37. Yes, exactly! Excellent way of looking at it! n/t

[Coyotl]

9. Old people are dying, not so hidden!

[msongs]

12. sorry to say but having a white presidential candidate will bring home lots of voters nt

[babylonsister]

18. Yes, and how sad does that continue to be. nt

[RKP5637]

29. Yeah, sadly that is true. n/t

[hlthe2b]

36. Not necessarily, if it is a white FEMALE candidate

Face it. There is a lot of overlap in those who would not vote for a black man and those who would not vote for a WOMAN--of any race. We have a number of voters who just won't vote for a woman. (sadly, that likely includes a few self-professed "progressive" women.

[duggie99]

13. Baby Boomer who is Liberal

Age has not changed my Liberal views and would never in this Political Climate vote for a Republican.

[RKP5637]

31. Well said!!! n/t

[Curmudgeoness]

14. So I have found the reason that the GOP

is trying to make it harder and harder for young people to go to college. Higher interest on student loans, fewer grants, higher tuition, and cutting funding to the universities. Hmmmm, college graduates are more open and tolerant. Can't have that.

[RKP5637]

32. They want a nation of fools, but what they can't seem to get is the rest of

the world will move right past the US, and they will be left here with a third world country.

[Curmudgeoness]

39. Sometimes, I think that is what they want.

A third world country. It would never affect them, since they will just set themselves up in walled in communities of the wealthy. But they will be able to do whatever they want to the rest of us----pay a pittance, destroy the environment where we are living, pollute our areas. We see it all the time in the third world now. Why would we think that they wouldn't want to have the same freedom to do what they want here too? They did it before. And they made a lot of money doing it. What do they care of us little people?

[RKP5637]

40. And why revolutions occur! n/t

[reACTIONary]

15. That means making a college education attainable and affordable...

"That means making a college education attainable and affordable for a much larger segment of the population should be a high priority for progressives."

YES!

[babylonsister]

19. Absolutely! Brains are anathema to rethugs. Sad. nt

[RKP5637]

33. The republicans have none, and are jealous of those that do, and hence want to

stamp out education, knowledge and intelligence.

[CFLDem]

38. Agree only if we can increase the ROI of degrees in general

Right now the value to employers is waaay to low compared to the monumental investment to obtain a 4 yr degree.

Or an even better idea would be to ensure our kids leave high school with valuable skills so they don't have to obtain an academic degree.

[DallasNE]

16. There Are Two Parts To The Silent Generation As Well

The more numerous of the group, born after 1939 are also more liberal than their older brothers. We cut our teeth on Brown v. Board of Education, Little Rock Central High School, the 3 recessions under Ike, McCarthyism and the election of JFK. My active duty military time included the Cuban Missile Crisis. Some will say "yes but that group includes the likes of Dick Cheney" and I will say that a sizable segment of that group has nothing in common with Dick Cheney as we served our country. We're the group that ushered in the 3rd generation computers and made the world go around. Those legacy systems still carry a heavy part of the data processing load today.

[RKP5637]

34. +++ 1,000,000 +++ n/t

[pragmatic_dem]

17. Romney was the prototypical wallstreet douchebag...

That video did him in. But there is still a class war right being fought right now (our side is losing, btw). I'm not seeing the right legislation from the Democratic Party (at least the stuff that will make it our of their own committees) to convince me that leadership has any clue just how severe of a problem income disparity has become.

Citizens United really does mean that there is a preferred corporate citizen with bonus miles and another 300 million in economy class.

The problem is you can't get elected to school board without $1,000,000 election fund.

[NuclearDem]

21. I hate to poop in the punch bowl...

But as long as the district system exists, the GOP will continue to survive. No matter how much their base dies off, giving a few thousand voters in red districts the same electoral weight of hundreds of thousands of predominately minority Democratic voters will keep it alive.

[raccoon]

23. This makes my day! nt

[colsohlibgal]

41. I Surely Hope This Is The Case

But it will be one long hard task to turn back the House because of gerrymandering and the fact that democrats seem to cluster around metro areas while republicans draw from more area, a lot of it rural. So - while we may be in good shapes as far as President and Senators the House will be really hard to swing back.

In my state NE Ohio, with Cleveland and Akron, is hugely democratic. Columbus is pretty split but trending at least light blue. Toledo is another area with some democratic strength but almost all the rural counties and districts vote republican. They mostly don't have a pot to pee in and they keep voting for congressmen who will make sure that doesn't change. I've seen it with my mother's dysfunctional family in Gallia County on the Ohio River - dirt poor, not the sharpest tools in the shed, all republican.

Maybe younger rural folks will wise up and vote in their own self interest, I hope so.

Of course the way the Big D democrats have been since Bubba, I'm not sure how easy it would be to get truly progressive policy enacted if we held the White House, the Senate, and the House - one thing for sure, there would be no excuses if that happens.