If Russian invades Ukraine, we'll do the same as they did when we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan

[elehhhhna]

fucking stay out of it

Ukraine's been in play politically since before the time of Ivan the Terrible (1500's). Not news.

Plus we don't like to fight white people. Bad optics.

[Warren Stupidity]

1. Plus like Crimea has been nominally part of Russia for 200 years or so.

Our bluster on this issue is just idiotic. Ukraine is likely going to split in two, the eastern half becoming some closely aligned ethnic Russian Crimean state, providing Russia with its strategic Black Sea ports. The western half will be ethnic Ukrainian and presumably aligned with the EU. Given that the two halves of Ukraine currently hate each other, this is probably not a bad solution.

[elehhhhna]

2. IIRC Ivan took the Crimea in the 1500s but

it changes hands regularly, yes?

[Warren Stupidity]

3. Not since 1856, although it was held by the Germans during WWII for a while.

Russia is not going to give up Sevastopol. Our government knows that. The Ukrainians in Kiev know that. The only people who appear to be confused about this are the american public, because we are generally idiots with respect to history and global politics.

[Igel]

4. But that will be the problem territory.

Because while much of the Crimea is in an autonomous "republic", Sevastopol is just an administrative region of Ukraine. With less local autonomy than Luhanks or Lviv.

[Warren Stupidity]

5. A problem for whom?

Crimea is about to vote itself out of the Ukraine, and that will be followed quickly by the north eastern provinces with their majority ethnic Russian populations.

The Ukrainian nationalists have won a victory, but that victory is going to leave them with the short end of the stick. Western Ukraine needs the east economically, but they can't live with the majority Russian population there having political control of a unified Ukraine. This has been the cause of the political stalemate for the last decade. I suppose the ultra nationalists thought they could evict the Russian population, but that just isn't going to happen.