Crimea has a complicated history, but one thing is certain: It is not a good fit with

[cali]

Ukraine.

That's hardly news.

Crimea has been operating as an autonomous parliamentary republic within Ukraine. Within Crimea, Sevastopol has operated as an autonomous region within Crimea itself.

58% of Crimeans are ethnic Russians. 12% are ethnic Tatars. 24% are ethnic Ukrainians.

Crimea has historically had more ties to Russia than Ukraine. It became part of Ukraine in 1954.

<snip>

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Crimea became part of the newly independent Ukraine, which led to tensions between Russia and Ukraine.[nb 1] With the Black Sea Fleet based on the peninsula, worries of armed skirmishes were occasionally raised. Crimean Tatars began returning from exile and resettling in Crimea.

On 26 February 1992, the Verkhovniy Sovet (the Crimean parliament) renamed the ASSR the Republic of Crimea and proclaimed self-government on 5 May 1992[28][29] (which was yet to be approved by a referendum to be held 2 August 1992[30]) and passed the first Crimean constitution the same day.[30] On 6 May 1992 the same parliament inserted a new sentence into this constitution that declared that Crimea was part of Ukraine.[30]
Crimea's southernmost point is the Cape of Sarych on the northern shore of the Black Sea, currently used by the Russian Navy.

On 19 May, Crimea agreed to remain part of Ukraine and annulled its proclamation of self-government but Crimean Communists forced the Ukrainian government to expand on the already extensive autonomous status of Crimea.[15]:587 In the same period, Russian president Boris Yeltsin and Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk agreed to divide the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet between Russia and the newly formed Ukrainian Navy.[31]

On 14 October 1993, the Crimean parliament established the post of President of Crimea and agreed on a quota of Crimean Tatars represented in the Council of 14. However, political turmoil continued. Amendments[clarification needed] to the constitution eased the conflict,[citation needed] but on 17 March 1995, the parliament of Ukraine intervened, scrapping the Crimean Constitution and removing Yuriy Meshkov (the President of Crimea) along with his office for his actions against the state and promoting integration with Russia.[32] After an interim constitution, the current constitution was put into effect, changing the territory's name to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.

Following the ratification of the May 1997 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership on friendship and division of the Black Sea Fleet, international tensions slowly eased off. However, in September 2008, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko accused Russia of giving out Russian passports to the population in the Crimea and described it as a "real problem" given Russia's declared policy of military intervention abroad to protect Russian citizens.[33]

On 24 August 2009, anti-Ukrainian demonstrations were held in Crimea by ethnic Russian residents. Sergei Tsekov (of the Russian Bloc[34] and then deputy speaker of the Crimean parliament[35]) said then that he hoped that Russia would treat the Crimea the same way as it had treated South Ossetia and Abkhazia.[36] Chaos in the Ukrainian parliament erupted during a debate over the extension of the lease on a Russian naval base on 27 April 2010 after Ukraine’s parliament ratified the treaty that extends Russia's lease on a military wharf and shore installations in the Crimean port Sevastopol until 2042. Along with Verkhovna Rada, the treaty was ratified by the Russian State Duma as well.[37]

<snip>

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea#In_independent_Ukraine


And no, I'm not defending Putin occupying Crimea.

[kestrel91316]

1. Yes you are.

[redgreenandblue]

3. An ad-hominem attack rather than an argument.

Gives me an idea how much the rest of your opinions are worth.

[moriah]

18. "I know you are, but what am I?"

Please come up with a better argument. Thank you.

[Spider Jerusalem]

2. Ethnic Germans, speaking the German language, constituted a majority in the Sudetenland in 1938

so was the German annexation of Sudetenland right and appropriate and understandable, then? There are very obvious parallels.

[jberryhill]

7. Yeah, Well, WWI didn't fix much

The end of the Austro-Hungarian Empire left a few things out of sorts - including a piece of Ukraine.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

4. It is, however, for those reasons.a very good conflict for America to stay out of.

Completely.

[2banon]

10. exactly...

I strongly suspect Obama shares this view, but it doesn't help when Kerry trots out rhetorical threats.. although I suspect he has to offer up rhetorical "red meat" to somewhat satisfy the appetite of the war hawks here......

[jsr]

5. We need to stay out of local quarrels on other continents

[TwilightGardener]

6. Not a good fit--but Ukraine would almost certainly not contest it if they

elected to split. Which is why Russia's being a bit heavy-handed, in trying to put themselves on the ground to make the outcome pre-determined. Unnecessary. It remains to be seen if they try for more territory than that.

[Adrahil]

8. This.

A number of days ago I advocated negotiations for a peaceful split, if the peoples of the region wanted that. But it can hardly be called legal for Russia to egregiously violate its agreement to not only respect, but defend Ukraine's territorial integrity, and to seize a province by force without any provocation at all.

Any argument NOW, with Russian forces in control of Crimea, that somehow it's OK because Crimea is a bad fit for Ukraine is absolutely supporting Putin, whether intended or not.

Also, I wonder how the some 40+% of non-ethnic Russians in Crimea feel about this? Especially the Crimean Tatars. My guess is they aren't so thrilled about the possibility of becoming Russian citizens whether they like it or not.

[LisaL]

9. Crimea used to be a part of Russia.

Russia just wants it back.

[Adrahil]

13. Really? You're OK with an invasion because it used to be part of Russia?

I suppose we should expect you to promote Mexico invading the entire Southwest then, eh?

I will point out that not only was Crimea ceded to Ukraine in 1954 (legally), but then when the Soviet Union broke up, the Russian Federation signed an agreement recognizing Ukraine's border and promising to respect and defend them.

If Russia wanted Crimea back, it should have actually requested negotiations, not launched an invasion.

I can hardly believe I even reading someone making this argument....

[TwilightGardener]

15. Spain, Mexico, France, and England are calling...they want America back.

[Igel]

16. Meh.

Kosovo used to be part of Serbia. Serbia just wants it back.


The Bosnian Serbs just want to be part of Serbia. Let's have a referendum and let them decide.


Both decisions were made not by Serbs but by others. In the first, they honored the majority of the population--which argues for letting Crimea split.

However, if you're consistent you'd have to let the Serbs split from Bosnia. Croats, too, if they're interested. Except that can't be allowed because they're needed to make a Muslim area viable and because, well, multiculturalism and multiethnic states are a good thing. And if they have interethnic tension and problems, dammit, they just have to fix their problems internally because we all know they're a good thing.

Heck, there's a large swathe of Belorusia that used to be Poland. I'm sure Poland would like it back--and it was only taken from Poland a mere 8 years before Crimea stopped being part of Russia. Are those 8 years *really* that important?

Of course, there are scant Poles there. Ethnic cleansing by the ever-friendly Soviet Union took care of that. Then again, the Poles kicked Germans out of the strip of Poland they got in return (and the Germans would like that back, too). Kaliningrad would make a nice addition to Germany, I'm sure they'd like it back as well.

And so it goes. There was a lot of re-drawing of borders in 1946-47.

[cemaphonic]

19. So should Russia also get the Baltic states, the Caucusus and Central Asian states, Belarus,

and Alaska?

Lots of places "used to be a part of Russia." Doesn't mean the contemporary Russia has any claim on them, especially in cases like this where there are treaties involved.


Crimea also used to be part of the Ottoman Empire, and the Mongols before that. Don't Turkey or Mongolia have a similarly valid claim on the region?

[TwilightGardener]

14. The most peaceful, sane option is what you say: have the current government

announce a referendum to split into two nations, mediated by both EU and Russia, and decide by referendum where the lines will be drawn and who gets what. Allow time for anyone who wants to leave their areas to leave, arrange for elections in respective areas, and in return Russia must withdraw all forces until the matter is settled and elections completed. Use NATO membership, EU membership, gas supplies, etc. as bargaining tools. It's hard to see how Ukraine stays together when it wasn't terribly unified to begin with.

[FarCenter]

11. Crimea has an area of 10,038 sq mi, smaller than New Jersey. Ukraine is 233,062 sq mi

Its strategic value to the Russians is as a naval base. Furthermore, if Ukraine were a NATO member hostile to Russia, it could block the Kerch Strait, which is the entrance to the Sea of Azov and that part of the Russian shoreline on the Black Sea. The Sea of Azov is the outlet of the Don River, and it is also an outlet for shipping on the Volga via the Don-Volga Canal.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

12. Russification comes home to roost. nt

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

17. Precisely...

There will be no easy answers here. You're talking generations of forced migration and some very old ethnics hostilities.

My Advice To Obama: Stay Away. Be engaged and use economic and diplomatic pressure, but military intervention on our part is going to be like pissing on a gasoline fire.