The New Yorker: Putin, Tilting at History
In his first public comments since ordering Russian troops into Crimea, Vladimir Putin gave a long and characteristically pugnacious explanation for his actions on Tuesday. Much of what he said was fanciful; some of it was acute. Bits of it were reassuring; other bits were threatening. All in all, the Russian leader gave the impression that he is comfortable with the situation his forces have established on the ground, that he is unlikely to buckle to Western protestations, and, ultimately, that he is tilting at history.
SNIP
Ultimately, however, Putin’s project cannot succeed according to its own terms. Greater Russia, the creation of the tsars, is gone for good. The Baltic Republics, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, which were incorporated into the Russian Empire during the eighteenth century, are today members of NATO. Georgia, the birthplace of Stalin, is out from under the Russian cosh, too. So are Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Even if Putin succeeds in reintegrating Crimea into Russia, which he may well do, it wouldn’t alter the reality that the most Russia can aspire to is to be a medium-ranked world power.
But even that status is not assured. Ultimately, power depends on economic strength. A decade of high prices for oil, gas, and other commodities—of which Russia has been blessed with enormous reserves—has disguised its underlying problems. Many sectors of the economy, including energy, remain quasi-monopolies, with close ties to the state. Cronyism is rife, innovation is weak, and legal protections are lacking. In Transparency International’s 2013 Corruption Perception Index, Russia was ranked a hundred and thirty-third out of a hundred and seventy-seven countries—alongside Nicaragua and Pakistan. Much of the country’s wealth has not been invested in much-needed infrastructure or the development of new industries; instead, it is siphoned off to bank accounts in Switzerland and Britain.
In its most recent report on Russia, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its economic forecasts for the next few years. The country needs “a new growth model, complemented by more diversification, higher investment, and a more efficient use of resources,” the I.M.F. said. “The previous model of high growth on the back of rising oil prices and utilization of spare capacity cannot be replicated.”
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http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2014/03/putin-press-conference-ukraine-crimea.html