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Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 08:59 AM Mar 2014

Why I believe the US Government knows where Malaysian Air 370 is.

In June 1968 the US Navy lost the submarine Scorpion. They began a search for this lost Submarine. One of the people who narrowed down the search was Dr. John Craven. Dr. Craven is one of those especially brilliant people who come along about once a generation if you are very lucky. Dr. Craven used hydrophone data from New Foundland, and the Bahama's, to locate the explosion of the Scorpion in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Yes, he used hydrophone data from thousands of miles away to locate a submarine that exploded in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean using technology of the era in 1968.

The same technology was used to identify the location of K-129 later that year over 1,500 miles off the coast of Hawaii. Again, hydrophones in the water detected the explosion on the surface of the water thousands of miles away.

Now, some people are going to pretend that we have somehow lost our ability to track things at sea since the 1960's.

Korea Air Lines flight 007. This aircraft was shot down by the Soviet Union in 1983. US Tracking stations monitored the radio calls of the pilots of the Soviet Fighters and moreover were actually tracking the aircraft.

Everyone knows how RADAR works. The radio beam goes out, bounces off the object being detected, and then races back to the antenna. BUT not all the signal bounces back to the antenna. Some is scattered here and there. By picking up these stray signals, you are able to see something.



The flight path of Flight 007 is shown as a solid line, while the anticipated flight path is a dotted line. The US Government "destroyed" the radar tapes of that night within 30 hours of the accident, despite the fact that the loss of the airliner was already known. There is no logical reason to destroy potential evidence, we were not so poor at that time that we could not afford another roll of tape for the recorders.

Our radio interception units picked up the chatter of the pilot who shot the plane down, and the orders to do so by his controllers.

Look at the displays of the COBRA DANE radar system from 1977. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cobra_Dane_Radar_Display.jpg



Notice the simple line drawing on the screen to show what the RADAR is able to pick up. That my friends is the Kamchatka Peninsula.

Now, we fast forward to the last couple years. What is the Government outraged about regarding Snowden? That he is revealing sources and methods. The how they gather the information. This security concern also dictated how we could deal with suspected terrorists at Guantanamo Bay. We could not try them in a civilian court because doing so would reveal sources and methods of how we track them.

We know the Government is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to track anyone anywhere. We know that our "Allied" governments are working with us to track anyone anywhere. I find it impossible to believe that the Government after 9-11 and the resulting paranoia and funding for every idiotic program would reduce our capabilities to observe ships and planes at sea to less than we had fifty years ago when SOSUS detected a Soviet Diesel Electric submarine in the Caribbean during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

We have SOSUS systems in the Pacific, and Tom Clancy had the Navy tracking submarines halfway across the Pacific ocean in his book Debt of Honor in 1994. Because the systems were widely believed to be that good at that time, don't tell me that they have gotten less capable since then.

The SOSUS sensors would pick up the impact of the aircraft at sea. We won't tell anyone because national security requires that we keep our sources and methods and how accurate they really are secret. RADAR which has not gotten less capable since the 1980's, tracked KAL 007 in 1983 from hundreds and even thousands of miles away. To that end we have added additional spy satellites that are able to record everything that happens below them and are capable of picking up a pack of cigarettes from space.

This is a brief overview of what I honestly believe, with good reason, our Government is capable of and is actively doing regarding the gathering of intelligence. I am not making any of it up. I am not linking to Conspiracy Theory websites. I am taking capabilities from thirty or more years ago in most cases, and adding the normal improvements over the resulting years. In many cases, I am purposely underestimating what advances in technology I honestly believe has been made.

I believe the US Government knows what happened to that aircraft. I also believe they won't tell anyone because doing so would result in revealing their sources and methods which tends to negate the technology when people take precautions against it. The thing that they say will cost hundreds of billions of dollars to repair after the revelations of Snowden.

So while many of us spend hours looking at Digital Globe's satellite pictures hoping to be the one to spot the tiniest of clues, realize that while you are doing so, the Government already knows, but will never say.

89 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Why I believe the US Government knows where Malaysian Air 370 is. (Original Post) Savannahmann Mar 2014 OP
ALCOA! FSogol Mar 2014 #1
Possibly Savannahmann Mar 2014 #3
LOL. Try again. FSogol Mar 2014 #4
OK, here are the sources of my information. Tell me the sources for yours. Savannahmann Mar 2014 #13
Just because technology exists, doesn't mean the all-seeing, all-knowing government FSogol Mar 2014 #17
Bingo! Though I await Savannahman's response when the plane wreckage is found, stopbush Mar 2014 #51
BBC News: Oceanic vibration event near time and place of plane's last contact JimDandy Mar 2014 #82
You could very well be correct Vinnie From Indy Mar 2014 #2
The Air Force told NASA a month after Challenger blew up why it did. Savannahmann Mar 2014 #5
NBC News mentioned the O-rings two days after the explosion jsr Mar 2014 #10
Thank you for countering. GeorgeGist Mar 2014 #23
Agree marions ghost Mar 2014 #6
I don't think that's any big secret Blue_Tires Mar 2014 #7
Yep, same thoughts here. n/t RKP5637 Mar 2014 #32
You know, I was thinking the other day louis-t Mar 2014 #78
Why? upaloopa Mar 2014 #8
Disagree, I don't think we have SOSUS arrays in the Indian Ocean Lurks Often Mar 2014 #9
Australia marions ghost Mar 2014 #11
Maybe, but not because of SOSUS arrays n/t Lurks Often Mar 2014 #24
OK marions ghost Mar 2014 #29
Nothing about this makes sense right now Lurks Often Mar 2014 #36
Right, good points marions ghost Mar 2014 #37
I'm inclined to say crashed probably in the open ocean. Lurks Often Mar 2014 #71
True marions ghost Mar 2014 #72
Maybe it's a dry run. Maybe a terrorist group want to see whether a plan snagglepuss Mar 2014 #58
The NSA isn't all powerful Lurks Often Mar 2014 #70
See Death of Payne Stewart. It might have been a dreadful accident. MADem Mar 2014 #80
We have them in the Pacific. Savannahmann Mar 2014 #19
I can find no indication of a functioning SOSUS in the Indian Ocean Jeff In Milwaukee Mar 2014 #30
I think America has mstinamotorcity2 Mar 2014 #12
TPC pintobean Mar 2014 #25
They can always get their information/propaganda out when they want to BlueStreak Mar 2014 #14
I gave every explanation Savannahmann Mar 2014 #15
In your own words, you said these are 1960s technologies that everybody already knows about BlueStreak Mar 2014 #18
Making stuff up? Savannahmann Mar 2014 #22
Yes. It is all unreasonable and all fantasy BlueStreak Mar 2014 #26
For your theory to work the plane had to explode. TexasProgresive Mar 2014 #16
The SOSUS part predicated on the plane hitting the water intact. Savannahmann Mar 2014 #20
"the Government already knows, but will never say"... Why? Ohio Joe Mar 2014 #21
Because the NSA thought Snowden was on board and had the plane purposely destroyed? randome Mar 2014 #28
Benghazi! That's where the plane crashed! FSogol Mar 2014 #31
We knew we could count on you to post a Fox News graphic pinboy3niner Mar 2014 #38
The US govt may not know everything... marions ghost Mar 2014 #34
If they did know they probably would not say so Bjorn Against Mar 2014 #41
Have hostage situations ever been kept secret? Ohio Joe Mar 2014 #57
Not sure there has ever been a case similar to this Bjorn Against Mar 2014 #61
Assuming this were a hostage situation... What makes it any different then any other? Ohio Joe Mar 2014 #63
No one publicly knows where the plane is Bjorn Against Mar 2014 #77
Conspiratorial rubbish. longship Mar 2014 #27
There is no conspiracy needed to explain this Bjorn Against Mar 2014 #42
Well, since the investigation is being conducted by Malaysian Airline... longship Mar 2014 #44
The question was not about who is in control Bjorn Against Mar 2014 #46
More Truther billh58 Mar 2014 #83
I just told Mr Nay this, exactly this. They know where the plane is, and are Nay Mar 2014 #33
Because there's always a nefarious plot afoot when a passenger plane crashes. stopbush Mar 2014 #53
Not at all -- no plot per se. I'm just speculating that any classified method Nay Mar 2014 #65
They obviously don't want to reveal how they discovered the secret flight plan... pinboy3niner Mar 2014 #35
Or the governments have a hostage situation they're keeping quiet Recursion Mar 2014 #39
Did you start this conspiracy theory from scratch on your own? snooper2 Mar 2014 #40
Conspiracy Theory Savannahmann Mar 2014 #49
blah blah blah blah blah snooper2 Mar 2014 #50
I'm going to help you. Savannahmann Mar 2014 #54
So you won't answer the questions, got it... snooper2 Mar 2014 #60
Your questions were not relevant to the discussions. Savannahmann Mar 2014 #62
So have you seen or heard of any aliens wearing clothes yet? snooper2 Mar 2014 #66
No, you are not using history. jeff47 Mar 2014 #68
I'm starting to worry BainsBane Mar 2014 #74
:) snooper2 Mar 2014 #75
There is a simple reason for withholding information from the public kristopher Mar 2014 #43
If you remember Boston they kept everything quiet and got nothing unitl they asked the Public... kickysnana Mar 2014 #84
I have thought so too Beringia Mar 2014 #45
If that were true, they could also provide a lead... pinboy3niner Mar 2014 #47
Shouldn't this OP be billh58 Mar 2014 #48
No marions ghost Mar 2014 #52
Yes... SidDithers Mar 2014 #55
Anyone that doesn't recognize it's natural that people try to solve riddles and puzzles... kristopher Mar 2014 #85
No. Good grief! truth2power Mar 2014 #56
Nope. 840high Mar 2014 #73
there are limitations to sonar -- blind spots and such unblock Mar 2014 #59
Our overlords KNOW that it pulled a Dirty Diego Garcia!1!! pinboy3niner Mar 2014 #64
The equipment has to be in the right place. jeff47 Mar 2014 #67
Oy. Igel Mar 2014 #69
This may be the funniest thread in years liberal N proud Mar 2014 #76
Why bother with an unfalsifiable theory? alcibiades_mystery Mar 2014 #79
Perhaps a modern re-make of Gilligan's Island ala Lost? benld74 Mar 2014 #81
I agree fadedrose Apr 2014 #86
K'd fadedrose Apr 2014 #87
K&R pscot Apr 2014 #88
The whole thing reeks of lies and not thinking outside the box Reter May 2014 #89
 

Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
3. Possibly
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:08 AM
Mar 2014

So your position is that our technology has gotten less capable since the 1960's, 1970's, and 1980's. That is possible. It is roughly as likely as me winning the Mega Millions Lottery tonight, but it is possible.

 

Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
13. OK, here are the sources of my information. Tell me the sources for yours.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:22 AM
Mar 2014

Doctor John Craven. The books Blind Mans Bluff and his own book Silent War, Cold War Battles benieth the sea. I've read them both. In both they give detailed information on the way they found both Scorpion and K-129. Azorian Raising the K-129 tells of how the Submarine was first located by narrowing down the search area to a grid where the Soviet Submarine was not expected to be, and then locating it via the Submarine Hallibut.

This by the way is not CT nonsense. These are non fiction books, and Documentaries.

So Hydrophones sensitive enough to locate a submarine explosion on the surface of the sea are a lost technology and couldn't be applied to an aircraft slamming into the water at 300+ MPH in 2014 because we don't do that anymore? Unlikely but OK.

KAL flight 007. Air Crash Investigations talked about how they had tracked the aircraft using scattered radar receiving technology. That was in 1983, obviously we don't do that anymore right? That technology is lost and forgotten much like the ability to build the pyramids.

SOSUS is a well known system developed in 1949 and upgraded many times since although irregularly. It was used to detect a Soviet Submarine during the Cuban Missile Crisis in the Carribiean. But we gave that technology up when the Cold War ended because there wasn't anything more to keep track of in the oceans right?

Elephant Ear radio receiving systems first used during the same Cuban Missile Crisis to narrow the locations of Soviet Submarines when they transmitted their burst radio calls reporting every day back to Moscow. Meh, nobody cares what radio signas are being sent across the airways anymore. Obviously we never upgraded that technology since 1962. Books in case you are wondering include Octobor Fury and Red November which was the book by W. Craig Reid about his Father's contributions to detecting and isolating the Soviet Burst Transmissions of the era.

So which of these technologies don't exist? Which of them has gotten less capable than they were during the time of the non fiction books about their use? What part of that is CT nonsense?

SO what exactly is the CT nonsense?

FSogol

(45,476 posts)
17. Just because technology exists, doesn't mean the all-seeing, all-knowing government
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:36 AM
Mar 2014

knows what happened and is hiding the info for tin-foily reasons. The CT nonsense is your suppositions of the event, not the author's work. Standard deflection technique.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
51. Bingo! Though I await Savannahman's response when the plane wreckage is found,
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 11:50 AM
Mar 2014

as will most likely happen in the not-too-distant future.

JimDandy

(7,318 posts)
82. BBC News: Oceanic vibration event near time and place of plane's last contact
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 03:19 PM
Mar 2014
Meanwhile, a Chinese research institute on Friday said it had found evidence of a "sea floor event" some 90 minutes after the plane disappeared.

The seismology research group at the University of Science and Technology of China said it happened 116 km north-east of the last point of contact of the plane, in an area not known for seismic activity, according to state media.

The research group said the vibrations could have been caused by the plane plunging into the sea.

...He said any device picking up such small movements would have to be very sensitive and incredibly close to the impact, meaning that search teams would now know exactly where to look for the debris.


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26572172

Don't know if China has a SOSUS setup in the South China Sea area and there is no mention in the article of what instuments the Chinese used to capture the vibration.

Vinnie From Indy

(10,820 posts)
2. You could very well be correct
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:07 AM
Mar 2014

Not revealing you know something and how you know it has always been a consideration of intelligence agencies.

 

Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
5. The Air Force told NASA a month after Challenger blew up why it did.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:11 AM
Mar 2014

The Navy and Air Force used similar technology on their solid fueled missiles like the MX and the Polaris missiles. They waited a month before telling NASA to look at the O-Rings because they were concerned about the Soviets learning that the missiles were of questionable reliability in the winter.

For those worried about CT, that was reported in a documentary on the Challenger years later, after the Air Force and Navy had upgraded the missiles to eliminate this particular flaw.

jsr

(7,712 posts)
10. NBC News mentioned the O-rings two days after the explosion
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:15 AM
Mar 2014
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/inspector-feynman-challenger-disaster-stars-scientist-sleuth-f2D11603763

In fact, the O-rings emerged as the main suspect just two days after the explosion, in part due to an NBC News report. Feynman focused on why the O-rings failed. ...

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
6. Agree
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:12 AM
Mar 2014

I have thought they know where it is from the very beginning. Which is why I haven't paid much attention. They will tell us when they think we should know.

Meanwhile the Thai Navy gets a little workout.

Blue_Tires

(55,445 posts)
7. I don't think that's any big secret
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:12 AM
Mar 2014

I'd think that India, China and Australia have a pretty good idea where the 777 ended up as well, and like the U.S., they can't come out and say HOW they know; only try to 'nudge' the investigation in the right direction...

louis-t

(23,292 posts)
78. You know, I was thinking the other day
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 02:12 PM
Mar 2014

maybe the US just needs an excuse to get our ships in those waters.

 

Lurks Often

(5,455 posts)
9. Disagree, I don't think we have SOSUS arrays in the Indian Ocean
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:14 AM
Mar 2014

Soviet (and now Russian) submarines aren't a threat to the United States in the Indian Ocean, so we never went to the expense to place SOSUS arrays in the Indian Ocean.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOSUS

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
29. OK
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:59 AM
Mar 2014

I defer to you on that. I assume that we on DU don't have access to the latest technology in order to speculate more accurately.

It remains a mystery. We'd have better luck with witch doctors or psychics right now. High tech sources of info have us on Ignore and are not answering the phone.

My left foot tells me the plane may not have crashed and has proceeded leftward but my left foot has on rare occasions been wrong.

We know nada.

 

Lurks Often

(5,455 posts)
36. Nothing about this makes sense right now
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 10:14 AM
Mar 2014

If it was meant to be a suicide attack, why crash it into either empty ocean or deep jungle and not take credit for taking over the plane?

If it was a hijacking, it would have required either some or all of flight crew to be collusion with the hijackers or made a major mistake in opening the cockpit door, all without any message from the flight crew. If hijacked it should have landed somewhere by now.

I can't see an equipment malfunction causing the plane to veer as far off course as has been reported.

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
37. Right, good points
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 10:28 AM
Mar 2014

a) It has crashed
b) It has landed

One of those is true.

-------

(Way too early for --c) Other (worm hole theory).

So far my antenna's up for a hijacking scenario. But not taking any bets on it.

 

Lurks Often

(5,455 posts)
71. I'm inclined to say crashed probably in the open ocean.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 01:25 PM
Mar 2014

For it to have crashed on or landed somewhere would have required it to cross a country's border and most countries are pretty good about using radars that paint the actual aircraft to cover their borders.

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
72. True
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 01:34 PM
Mar 2014

it's a long shot. Others would have to be in on the plan for it to work this long.

I guess we all resist thinking crash.

snagglepuss

(12,704 posts)
58. Maybe it's a dry run. Maybe a terrorist group want to see whether a plan
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:01 PM
Mar 2014

they have devised can be successfully carried out. If this were a hijacking then the hijackers certainly were successful at evading NSA surveillence.

 

Lurks Often

(5,455 posts)
70. The NSA isn't all powerful
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 01:21 PM
Mar 2014

1st they would have to had intercepted the communication
2nd the programs that they use to sort generally sort by keywords, so the keywords would have to be present for the communication to be flagged for review
3rd the above steps would have had happen with enough time for the US to decide to intervene and communicate with the appropriate countries and police or military organizations involved.

 

Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
19. We have them in the Pacific.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:37 AM
Mar 2014
http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/systems/sosus.htm

From an environmental website. http://www.pulseplanet.com/dailyprogram/dailies.php?POP=1468

The US Navy’s Sound Surveillance System, or SOSUS, is being used by some scientists for non-military purposes, like listening to the entire ocean at once to hear whales.


A system sensitive enough to track whales thousands of miles away would be able to hear the impact of an airplane wouldn't you agree?

I even read one book that insisted that SOSUS was so sensitive that it could hear the water moving across the body of the submarine. I'm not sure I believe that, so I didn't include it because it wasn't multi sourced like everything else I mentioned above.

Jeff In Milwaukee

(13,992 posts)
30. I can find no indication of a functioning SOSUS in the Indian Ocean
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 10:00 AM
Mar 2014

Granted, it would probably be classified, but since the Cold War, some systems in sensitive areas have been deactivated. The Indian Ocean has never been considered a sensitive area.

mstinamotorcity2

(1,451 posts)
12. I think America has
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:20 AM
Mar 2014

a good idea where the plane is!! If they can keep track of phone calls surly they can track a little old plane

 

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
14. They can always get their information/propaganda out when they want to
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:29 AM
Mar 2014

They have back channels and they are masters at the offensive leak game.

You gave no explanation of why it would be in the NSA/CIA's interest not to have this craft found if they had information that could help.

 

Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
15. I gave every explanation
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:31 AM
Mar 2014

Protecting Sources and Methods. The same reason we can't try the detainees at Guantanamo Bay. We would reveal Sources and Methods of intelligence Collection.

 

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
18. In your own words, you said these are 1960s technologies that everybody already knows about
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:37 AM
Mar 2014

so why would they be giving up any secret methods by helping out here?

But let me build on your theory as long as we are just making stuff up. I believe terrorists broke into the complex at Area 57 and stole the remains of space aliens. They had these space aliens in checked baggage on the Malaysian flight and were prepared to turn them over to China in exchange for nukylar bombs and a safe haven. And China would then use the space aliens to discredit the United States and then clone the DNA from those aliens with their own Chinese DNA to make a super race of Chinese space invaders.

So you see, the plane had to be destroyed. We really shouldn't ask too many questions in situations like this.

 

Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
22. Making stuff up?
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:45 AM
Mar 2014

Making stuff up? I posted above some of the sources of my information http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024662018#post13

Now, what am I making up? I did not include anything that was questionable like Red Star Rogue that has been fairly well debunked. I did not include anything from questionable sources or websites. These are all mainstream Non Fiction books and Documentaries. I am not offering alien theory, and I am not saying grand conspiracy to destroy the plane. All I am saying is that with the surveillence systems we had in the 1960's, 1970's, and 1980's, which has been declassified, assuming less than normal advances in the technology, or even modern applications of that technology from fifty years ago, we would know where the plane is. The only assumptions I am making are that the technology advanced since the 1960's.

What about that, any of that is unreasonable or fantasy?

 

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
26. Yes. It is all unreasonable and all fantasy
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:51 AM
Mar 2014

Because you didn't provide any good reason why anybody would want to do that. The technologies you cited were all 50 years old and then the reason you gave for holding back is that we didn't want to reveal our technologies.

I can just as easily argue that Putin knows exactly where the plane is, with exactly the same "logic."

TexasProgresive

(12,157 posts)
16. For your theory to work the plane had to explode.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:34 AM
Mar 2014

If the plane went down due to catastrophic systems failures or being piloted into the sea or just flown to some isolated part of the world your theory is unable to hold water. And that's assuming that the SOSUS is operational in that part of the world.

I agree that the US, Russia and China may know something and don't wish to let anyone know the capabilities of their surveillance. But if that is so, we will never know.

 

Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
20. The SOSUS part predicated on the plane hitting the water intact.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:39 AM
Mar 2014

The Scattered RADAR collection did not, nor did Satellite observation.

Ohio Joe

(21,752 posts)
21. "the Government already knows, but will never say"... Why?
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:42 AM
Mar 2014

Forget all the non-sense you have cobbled together to create this all knowing govt and lets say for a moment that the govt does know everything... Why would they not just say 'oh yeah, we had it on radar, it's over there'?

 

randome

(34,845 posts)
28. Because the NSA thought Snowden was on board and had the plane purposely destroyed?
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:58 AM
Mar 2014

Because Obama was using it as a landing point for his expanded teleportation experiments?

Because the 'real' Joe Biden was on board and the government doesn't want us to see through the disguise of his clone?

Because Hillary was trying to get the Benghazi records out of the country and Rand Paul found out about it and talked Ted Cruz into stealing a passport and sneaking a camera on board but in reality Darrel Issa had already planted a bomb because the truth about Benghazi scared even him?
[hr][font color="blue"][center]I'm always right. When I'm wrong I admit it.
So then I'm right about being wrong.
[/center][/font][hr]

pinboy3niner

(53,339 posts)
38. We knew we could count on you to post a Fox News graphic
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 10:34 AM
Mar 2014

This is going straight into your MIRT dossier!

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
34. The US govt may not know everything...
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 10:14 AM
Mar 2014

but for damn sure they (& certain allies) know more than we do.

Bjorn Against

(12,041 posts)
41. If they did know they probably would not say so
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 10:56 AM
Mar 2014

I am not getting in to any conspiracy theories, but assuming the plane was stolen and flown it to a secret location the people guarding that location are likely heavily armed and have hostages. The investigators would never want to reveal too much about what they know because if there was a crime they don't want to give a heads to the people responsible for that crime.

Ohio Joe

(21,752 posts)
57. Have hostage situations ever been kept secret?
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 11:56 AM
Mar 2014

I don't recall any... Certainly not any that have gone on for a week. What would it matter if it was known?

Bjorn Against

(12,041 posts)
61. Not sure there has ever been a case similar to this
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:09 PM
Mar 2014

This is a very unusual situation, I can't think of another situation in recent history in which a commercial airliner just went missing. If this did happen deliberately as many news reports are suggesting then the people who were on board the flight are probably being hidden somewhere if they are still alive.

If this was a deliberate act it is a crime of enormous magnitude, and the investigators would no doubt be worried about a potential hostage situation.

Ohio Joe

(21,752 posts)
63. Assuming this were a hostage situation... What makes it any different then any other?
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:49 PM
Mar 2014

Why would the hostage takers want to keep it secret? Many govt's are involved and would know... What reason could ALL of them have to keep it secret? I just don't see it as something that could happen for a whole week... It makes no sense. It has never happened before and I can think of no reason for it to happen now.

Bjorn Against

(12,041 posts)
77. No one publicly knows where the plane is
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 01:46 PM
Mar 2014

I suppose technically it would be considered a kidnapping situation with high potential to turn in to a hostage situation.

longship

(40,416 posts)
27. Conspiratorial rubbish.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 09:57 AM
Mar 2014

The all seeing eye of the government, something common to just about all conspiracy theories.

Bjorn Against

(12,041 posts)
42. There is no conspiracy needed to explain this
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 11:08 AM
Mar 2014

Think about it, if you were an investigating a stolen commercial aircraft and you found out where it was would you announce it to the press before you were able to rescue the passengers who were on board?

I don't know what our government knows, but I would expect them to keep most of it classified at this point.

longship

(40,416 posts)
44. Well, since the investigation is being conducted by Malaysian Airline...
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 11:14 AM
Mar 2014

and the USA is only assisting, the US is not in control, is it?

Bjorn Against

(12,041 posts)
46. The question was not about who is in control
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 11:19 AM
Mar 2014

The question was about who has knowledge, and the US certainly has knowledge. How much knowledge they have we don't know, but I can assure you our government has far more knowledge than you or I. Given the resources they have it is even possible they may know more than Malaysia does.

billh58

(6,635 posts)
83. More Truther
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 06:15 PM
Mar 2014

speculation without substance. Besides, we all know that this incident is somehow tied to Benghazi...

Nay

(12,051 posts)
33. I just told Mr Nay this, exactly this. They know where the plane is, and are
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 10:07 AM
Mar 2014

trying to figure out how to tell the world without revealing any big secrets.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
53. Because there's always a nefarious plot afoot when a passenger plane crashes.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 11:54 AM
Mar 2014

Sometimes planes crash for mundane reasons.

Nay

(12,051 posts)
65. Not at all -- no plot per se. I'm just speculating that any classified method
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 01:02 PM
Mar 2014

of seeing where the plane went or where it is now may be, you know, CLASSIFIED. And the powers that be are working out a way to tell the public where the plane is without revealing how it was found.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
39. Or the governments have a hostage situation they're keeping quiet
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 10:37 AM
Mar 2014

If I were trying to hide negotiation with hostage takers I might wind up with a bunch of random inconsistent leaks to the press, too...

 

snooper2

(30,151 posts)
40. Did you start this conspiracy theory from scratch on your own?
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 10:42 AM
Mar 2014

Or did you get a primer from idiot jones or counterpunch?

 

Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
49. Conspiracy Theory
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 11:39 AM
Mar 2014

To make sure I did not post CT, I stayed away from questionable sources of information. I am reporting on history, what is written and accepted as factual by the world. Reports and interviews based factual information. I'm assuming that you've read none of it, and thus discount all of it.

I'm going to suggest you start simply. Read Blind Mans Bluff. You can get it used from Amazon for a penny plus shipping. You can probably find it at your local library. http://www.amazon.com/dp/006097771X/?tag=mh0b-20&hvadid=3482272257&ref=pd_sl_4m2s2xhwvn_ee

The book is highly rated and not discredited by anyone. It is the story of submarine intelligence from Post WW II to the Clinton Administration. Among other things they cover the USS Hallibut. John Craven, K-129, Project Ivy Bells, and the USS Scorpion. They also discuss the search for the missing Polarmares bomb, the sea search in question being run by Dr. John Craven.

All of those things happened, and existed. Because you are astonishingly ignorant does not make it conspiracy theory, the claim that it is Conspiracy Theory makes you look amazingly ill informed and uneducated.

 

snooper2

(30,151 posts)
50. blah blah blah blah blah
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 11:42 AM
Mar 2014

Have you watched a single video of VICE reporting on the ground for the last few weeks?


or-


Is the fact that our government is against what Pootie is doing cause enough to scrounge for a meme to justify the assholes actions?

 

Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
54. I'm going to help you.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 11:54 AM
Mar 2014
Ignorant as defined.

adjective
1. lacking in knowledge or training; unlearned: an ignorant man.

2. lacking knowledge or information as to a particular subject or fact: ignorant of quantum physics.

3. uninformed; unaware.

4. due to or showing lack of knowledge or training: an ignorant statement.


So by declaring everything you know nothing about as CT demonstrates that you are ignorant of the information.

By refusing to learn, you require another word to describe you.

Then by throwing asinine statements that are utterly unrelated to the issue being discussed, you require a second word to describe your behavior.
 

snooper2

(30,151 posts)
60. So you won't answer the questions, got it...
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:03 PM
Mar 2014

Savannahmann, the one who never found a conspiracy theory too out there to embrace.


You call me ignorant, then a troll, I'll wait to see what you have next which shouldn't be much. I think you have dug as deep as mentally possible at this point

 

Savannahmann

(3,891 posts)
62. Your questions were not relevant to the discussions.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:31 PM
Mar 2014

Also they were poorly worded. I'm assuming it was the maximum you were capable of.

I have no idea what flight 370 had to do with Putin, and how you believe he is involved. At best, you could be said to be trying to hijack the thread, at worst, you are intentionally trying to turn the conversation.

You do not respond on any of the factual historical events that I pointed out from a single book demonstrating that you are indeed ignorant of those events, and I wonder if you read much. Either way, the points must come to me for the purposes of a debate using the traditional Lincoln Douglas debate format. http://dbp.idebate.org/en/index.php/Standards:Lincoln-Douglas_Debate

It is said that if you have the law on your side, you argue the law. If the facts are on your side, you argue the facts. You are using the third option, pounding the table and screaming. This third technique is what is used when you have neither law, nor facts on your side.

In short, Game, Set, Match. You lose again.

I would consider continuing your education, informing you of interesting trivia about the Cuban Missile Crisis, but since you've apparently never heard of the aforementioned event, I doubt that it would be useful to you. Perhaps others might be more interested. For them I offer the following.

Soviet Submarine K-19 suffered a catastrophic failure of the cooling system for the nuclear reactor. The Executive Officer, or second in command for those of you who don't understand such terms, was a man named Vasili Arkhipov. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, he was the commander of one of the Soviet Diesel Electric attack submarine B-59.

His actions aboard the K-19 helped prevent a Nuclear War. On B-59 he was again faced with a situation where nuclear war could well be the result. The Submarines involved in the Cuban Missile Crisis were armed with Nuclear Tipped Torpedo's. Their orders were to fire the torpedo's if they were forced to the surface, or if the Americans attempted to board the Soviet Submarine. Captain Vasily Arkhipov refused to fire the torpedo's as ordered, knowing that such an attack on an American Destroyer would cause the Americans to retaliate, and that would lead to World War III and the nightmare of Nuclear War.

What are the odds that the same man would be present at two such potentially disastrous events in history? What are the odds that the same man would make the wise decision in both cases, in one refusing to follow orders. I am thankful that Captain Arkhpov was a man of foresight and wisdom, because many of us would not be here without that kind of wisdom.

Now, you can try and spin that as love for Putin if you like. Because three submarine captains refused to fire torpedo's, and one of them was a man who had been in another situation in which nuclear war was a possibility. I personally see it as a love of history and an admiration of those who took intelligent action to avoid the unthinkable. The same way that I admire JFK for his resistance to the Military demanding that we bomb now, bomb often, and invade Cuba to remove the threat. JFK knew that course of action would lead to Nuclear War, and was wise enough to continue with diplomacy in spite of the advice of the "experts".

I find willful ignorance intolerably insulting. The information is out there, and if you are unwilling to learn it for yourself, then you should at least have the intelligence to avoid insulting those who do bother to read and learn. That is a trait of the RW. They denounce those who assert that Global Climate Change is happening. They refuse to see the truth before them, and are roundly denounced on this board and many other places including from Secretary of State Kerry for their willful ignorance.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
68. No, you are not using history.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 01:18 PM
Mar 2014

You are using history to justify blind speculation.

Equipment that detected events in the past will not detect events in this situation when it is thousands of miles out of range.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
43. There is a simple reason for withholding information from the public
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 11:12 AM
Mar 2014

Anything they make public is known to any bad actors that might be involved.

Step back and think of any criminal investigation and how much of the information the investigators would want made public.

Add in the confounding element of 239 lives being at stake and the only reasonable course in the event of a hijacking is to keep as much of what the governments know as secret as possible.

Going to the other instances and using them as some sort of rationale for this event is, indeed, crossing the threshold into conspiracy. In your defense, let me say that when confronted with confused events and contradictory explanations fromm authority, it is perfectly normal to link together what we believe (not necessarily know) in ways that help us make sense of events.

Beringia

(4,316 posts)
45. I have thought so too
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 11:15 AM
Mar 2014

The world is very small now with regards to government intelligence and the US I think knows how to find this plane. They are staying mum.

pinboy3niner

(53,339 posts)
47. If that were true, they could also provide a lead...
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 11:19 AM
Mar 2014

...either through cutouts, or directly with counterfeit evidence to support it.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
85. Anyone that doesn't recognize it's natural that people try to solve riddles and puzzles...
Sat Mar 15, 2014, 09:07 AM
Mar 2014

...has a severe mental block.

IOW: Your definition of what constitutes a "conspiracy theory" is whacked.

unblock

(52,196 posts)
59. there are limitations to sonar -- blind spots and such
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 12:02 PM
Mar 2014

sea mounts, differences in salination, ocean depth, etc., all have a bearing on how effectively you a hear, from how far away.

think of it as a line of sight, even with a powerful lens, you can't see if something is blocking your view. it's not quite so simple.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
67. The equipment has to be in the right place.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 01:14 PM
Mar 2014

We built over-the-horizon radars in Alaska and Canada and Europe to look for Soviet bombers. We did not build over-the-horizon radars that cover Malaysia, because Soviet bombers would not be flying from there.

Normal RADAR is limited to roughly 20 miles due to the curvature of the Earth - crank the power up all you want, you can't "paint" a target below the horizon. So a US ship or other mobile radar could not detect the plane unless it happened to be relatively close.

We built SOSUS installations in the Pacific and Atlantic to look for submarines coming from the Soviet Union. Those subs were not going to be coming from Malaysia. In addition, those devices don't work all that well near shore - lots of other sources of noise.

Igel

(35,300 posts)
69. Oy.
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 01:21 PM
Mar 2014

Easier to make claims than to refute them. Sometimes a lot easier.

Hydrophone data. Let's assume they're still up and running, those devices or something like it. I think that's likely. They're cheap and robust. The example you cite is straightforward: You get the data from a direct line of sight/sound from one point to the source, correlate it with the same data from another point to the source. You draw the lines back to their source. Voila. You'd want a third observation to help be sure, but if you can always go and search.

1. The sub would have been emitting a fairly consistent, identifiable signal. You could look for the signal easily in a variety of data sources. Once nearby, you could use the signal for precise locating. If the plane went down and went "boom" or made a big sound, they'd be looking for a short-lived signal. One that would sound much like many other signals. If they narrowed the range, they'd still be looked for a distributed debris field over a fairly wide area.

2. Direct line of "sound" is important. If there's an island in the way or other land masses what you'd get would be distorted. That area is chock-full of islands. Meaning you'd need a lot of hydrophones. And if you didn't know when to listen, within a couple of minutes, you'd need a heck of a lot of analysis time.

So it sounds like a nice idea, but Charles S. Peirce's observation still holds true. There are a lot of experiments you could do. Manpower and resource limitations make sure most of them never happen, and we rely on expertise to say where to direct staff and resources. The people involved in such observations would have full-time jobs already, jobs presumably considered important. This would require a few people additional.



Radar. Radar usually uses line-of-sight. It's easy for a plane to be too far away to be on a local radar screen. Over-the-horizon radar is "out there," but requires more sophisticated technology.

1. The US government certainly has that technology. It's unclear that it has it precisely *there*. It's like any other technology--it does you no good if it's in the wrong place or unplugged.

2. The US went to airborne early warning systems, planes always in the area at a sufficiently close range to spot what was coming our way, that replaced '60s and '70s over-the-horizon radar systems in many cases. Those would be focused on the area of interest, not 180 degrees away from the area of interest. They'd still be limited by the effective horizon, as well.

3. Radar doesn't say what the bogey is. It just says, "Oh, here's a spot on the radar screen." Some radar trace might well have shown the plane vanishing. But with transponders off, all it showed was a blip on the screen. If nobody was tracking it from before the transponder went off, if nobody goes back and actually looks at and analyzes any recordings, that useful bit of information will remain essentially non-information. Was it a bird? a plane? Superman?

So radar might have the information. It might not.



The third objection is a bit more human-centered. If there was a radar outpost that picked up the signal, it would have a system for recycling information storage space. If the person in charge didn't know that they'd picked up the flight and had a record of its disappearance, he wouldn't have said anything. And even if he did see the flight vanish, he might not have heard what it was in time to preserve a recording. And he might just wait for a request to come in from his supervisor rather than push the possibly redundant information.

By the time a request for information came in--remember, it's been days and we're still not sure where to look--the info might have been destroyed.

But the problem might be worse. The person in charge of providing assistance to the Malaysians and interested in the information may not have a clue that there was a listening post in the right area or that it might have gotten the information. Even if he had asked, "Hey, do we have any resources in the area that might provide information?" the person he asked might not have known. Distributed knowledge isn't usually evenly distributed. If they did find out that a listening post was in the right area at the right time, the information might have been destroyed before the information request made it through channels. Such is the nature of bureaucracy. Once the information is gone, the only point in saying, "Hey, we probably had that information but destroyed it" is to cause one's self shame and embarrassment. That serves no valid purpose (even if others might enjoy causing somebody else shame and embarrassment, I don't consider that a "valid purpose&quot .

 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
79. Why bother with an unfalsifiable theory?
Fri Mar 14, 2014, 02:14 PM
Mar 2014

They know, but you'll never know that they knew.

It's a thesis that cannot be disproven, essentially.

In other words, a fun parlor game, but pretty much a waste of time.

fadedrose

(10,044 posts)
86. I agree
Fri Apr 25, 2014, 01:07 PM
Apr 2014

I think that the US, UK and Austrailia are part of a secret plan to capture the hijackers...

I believe the "pings" were falsified either by these countries or by the hijackers. It was done to instigate searching the Indian Ocean to make the hijackers think they were safe. Many hijackers involved. Some to clear land to land the plane, some to handle the passengers (if they are still alive), some to send a signal to the phone tower, some in Malayia's control tower to throw off any attempts to follow the plane as it was leaving, probably east or north. Long ago when it first started, a CNN expert pilot said that he thought it went north because of poor radar tracking there.

The witness who claimed he saw a low flying plane was dismissed because he claimed he even saw the doors. "Experts" who said that seeing the doors was impossible from a height of 5000 feet never could admit that nobody knew at what height the plane was flying, and the witness notified the police even before anyone knew that the plane was missing because it caused him great anxiety, having never seen a plane that low before in that area (avoiding radar?).

A plane would be needed to carry a number of terrorists - but since a great many of them were killed in Yemen - it makes their involvement, if there was any, a reason to change plans. May 1 is a big day in Russia, and a plane loaded with suicide terrorists and bombs would be a great way to celebrate May 1. Or some other country that had no connection to Yemen would work as well. I wonder who took the photos in Yemen, and why the PM of Malaysia says he can tell all in a week - May 1, by coincidence.

I believe the hijacking is part of a huge plan to capture a plane to use it; not sure if it's Chechnyans against Russia (wouldn't be the first time); Pakistan against India; or some moslem country against Israel (not likely because Israel's security is too good). I don't know who the Chinese could be attacking because they have enough of their own planes without stealing one, but can't figure why there were so many Chinese on the plane. This had to be a factor because the hijacking was carefully planned and they had to know this.

The US knows, and favorable conditions have come about - sighting the plane, spies working with the hijackers, etc., and it may be ready to break open. I hope the people are alive.

 

Reter

(2,188 posts)
89. The whole thing reeks of lies and not thinking outside the box
Sat May 17, 2014, 03:22 PM
May 2014

There are only three possibilities:

1) It was shot down.
2) It's on that US military island, for reasons unknown.
3) It entered a time portal/wormhole.

There is just no way it's in the ocean without being found. It's a freaking 777, and yes I know how big the ocean is.

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