Bill Gates: People Don't Realize How Many Jobs Will Soon Be Replaced By Software Bots

[FarCenter]

Big changes are coming to the labor market that people and governments aren't prepared for, Bill Gates believes.

Speaking at Washington, D.C., economic think tank The American Enterprise Institute on Thursday, Gates said than within 20 years, a lot of jobs will go away, replaced by software automation ("bots" in tech slang, though Gates used the term "software substitution&quot .

This what he said:

"Software substitution, whether it's for drivers or waiters or nurses … it's progressing. ... Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set. ... 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-bots-are-taking-away-jobs-2014-3

The basis for "developed economies" is that people have jobs from which they earn money with which they can buy goods and services.

This will not be possible in the future and a new economic mechanism for distribution of goods and services will have to be developed.

[randome]

1. It may well be so but how many twenty year out predictions have proven to be correct?

You don't have to be a billionaire entrepreneur to make predictions in that range. Anyone can do it.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]I'm always right. When I'm wrong I admit it.
So then I'm right about being wrong.[/center][/font][hr]

[DetlefK]

2. What exactly is your point?

You agree with him but note that he still might be wrong and that everyone could have made such an obvious guess?

[randome]

4. I'm not agreeing, just saying he could be right.

No one knows what the world will look like twenty years from now. Most predictions of that sort miss the mark.

For all we know, clean energy industry will start to flourish before then, supporting an even more vibrant economy and job situation.

For all we know, programming will become ever more important in order to write the software Gates envisions.

For all we know, the GOP will be a dessicated corpse and we can finally get around to providing infrastructure-related jobs that will benefit all.

Gates only knows one aspect -software. It's rather insular of him to think that software will automatically be the most important thing in the next two decades.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]The truth doesn’t always set you free.
Sometimes it builds a bigger cage around the one you’re already in.[/center][/font][hr]

[DetlefK]

16. Your predictions are off as well :D :D :D

Who will work in the clean-energy-industry?
- People who know how to operate the robots who operate the high-tech-machines who build solar-cells, batteries...
- People who install that stuff.
- Who will administer the storage of all this hardware? One guy overseeing a bunch of automated forklifts.

Programming will be more important, but that's 1,000,000 jobs added vs. 5,000,000 jobs lost.
And programming is not that easy, not everyone can do that on a whim.

Infrastructure-related jobs?
Look at the housing-market in Spain: The economy was booming and new houses were built left and right. Then came the point where the market was saturated with empty buildings for sale and those companies collapsed.
Repairing the US-infrastructure will only provide construction-site-, engineer- and electrician-jobs for about 10 years.

And for the "software-is-overrated"-point:
Miniaturization is walking ahead. Fast. In ten years, electronics will be implanted in everyday-clothes. Somebody/something will have to administer that. (There's a company that sells baby-clothing that let's you check on the baby's heart-rate, temperature, blood-oxygen-level andsoforth. The sensors are as thick as a credit-card and sewed into the fabric.)
Artificial body-parts are being developed. Progress is slow, but steady. Cyborg-eyes for the blind are on sale (google: Argus II), cyborg-hands and cyborg-legs are beyond the prototype-stage and actually building them is just a matter of money.
Brain-Machine-Interfaces do exist, though right now the most complicated command they can decipher from a brain is "Move this thing over there."



The future will be cyber-punk: A technological elite and poor masses that are only good as consumers.

[FarCenter]

3. As the article points out, Gates is not alone in making the prediction

The last decades of digital technology have just put the basic plumbing in place. There will be huge impacts on the economy as software starts to developed to take full advantage of the technology. We are just at the beginning.

[randome]

11. Technology so far has resulted in an explosion of programming jobs for the past 20 years.

I'd bet the same can be said for the next 20 years.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Birds are territorial creatures.
The lyrics to the songbird's melodious trill go something like this:
"Stay out of my territory or I'll PECK YOUR GODDAMNED EYES OUT!"[/center][/font][hr]

[TheKentuckian]

30. But those programming jobs don't replace all the jobs lost to what is programmed by a long shot.

The percentage and raw number of programmers increases but the overall labor pie shrinks.

Efficiency drives down the need for labor overall but not necessarily equally.

[City Lights]

5. When do CEO bots arrive on the scene?

Those are bots I could support.

[jsr]

9. Bingo.

[Starry Messenger]

10. Beat me to it. nt.

[valerief]

51. We have them already. They just look human. nt

[hobbit709]

6. Not if they're running a newer version of windows 8

[burfman]

7. only thing Gates can do

The only thing Gates can do is make money.....

He's got 75 Billion (which ironically is 75 Billion more than me) and in return I'm the one who has to pick up the pieces he inflicted upon the rest us with his crappy operating system.... (I recommend that those who can take a look at Linux).

That aside, the same thought about robots (software and hardware) replacing people has been occurring to others and myself for some time....

In an ideal future (as long as we are talking about the future - see Star Trek the original) people would be encouraged to do creative and productive work (arts, science, engineering, etc.) and basic living expenses would be guaranteed by the government.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

26. I see people trash Windows all the time but I've rarely had trouble with it and when I have

it's usually when I'm riding my machine like a race horse and try to do more than the RAM I have available.

What, exactly, makes Windows "crap" to people like you who trash it constantly?

Welcome to DU, btw!

[burfman]

39. programming for a living

Hey I program for a living and I've been dealing with Microsoft from the beginning. I find using Windows usually a frustrating experience often wondering how the rest of the world deals with it. Usually users are running 3rd party anti-virus software just to keep the thing running somewhat smoothly - see Norton for example. Those of us who have played with Windows long enough are familiar with having to wipe clean the hard disk and re-install Windows cause things have crapped out. Windows also demands a lot of resources to run it well, just try and run it on a under powered machine and not be frustrated.
M.S. design philosophy is based upon a fear of other people coming along and making a copy of what they have built. Even though they ironically have lifted major ideas in the past from others to build their operating system. As a result a lot of what they do in their operating systems are hidden from everybody except them. So if you come across a bug, a problem or want to do something a little bit novel you can only come up with a solution with the cooperation of Microsoft. Compare this with the Linux world which is totally open. Linux is much more robust and flexible. If you want to delve into the low level software to fix a bug in Linux, you can - or someone else who has the ability will. Because of this openness Linux is has evolved to a very stable flexible environment. The Apple and Android operating systems which are derived from Linux are two examples of this - not to mention it's use on the back-end of the web. The openness of what goes on inside of the operating system has led to it's tremendous growth and popularity - see Ubuntu for example.

Here's the analogy (maybe a little bit of a stretch) from a story I heard from a Math teacher in college:

In Russia back in the 60's they would have a major chess champion play against the masses in the newspaper. One week the chess champion would make a move, the readers would mail in their choice for their move to the newspaper on a postcard and the most popular move would be placed in the paper for the chess champion to respond to. Regardless of how good the chess champion was he would usually loose to the crowd.

So I guess all said when I'm running Windows which I do, I feel as if I'm making someone else rich at my expense.

[former9thward]

8. Neither party has an answer for this.

Which is why it is never addressed.

[DetlefK]

12. If menial jobs no longer exist as an economic fallback for workers...

how are they supposed to earn enough to make a living?

If robots (hardware and/or software) replace manpower, that will leave to a new wave of unemployment. And that will force us to shift the paradigm of industry and commerce: From capitalism to socialized capitalism.

Robot workers produce products for the company, but unemployed workers cannot afford them. -> Companies don't make money, even if they produce super-cheap.

Solution 1: No robots.
Solution 2: Tax companies that create added value by cheap robot-work instead of expensive human-work. Use that money to support those who are unemployed because of robots.

[Generic Other]

17. Why even bother to let us biologically flawed beings exist at all?

What do they plan to do? Just let us all starve to death?

I see two worlds developing -- his mechanical world and our post-apocalyptic one where we live on the fringes of civilization like rats gnawing at the roots. The fissures are already developing. We will all be homeless in Gates' future world.


A Pict Song
By Rudyard Kipling

Rome never looks where she treads.
Always her heavy hooves fall
On our stomachs, our hearts or our heads;
And Rome never heeds when we bawl.
Her sentries pass on—that is all,
And we gather behind them in hordes,
And plot to reconquer the Wall,
With only our tongues for our swords.

We are the Little Folk—we!
Too little to love or to hate.
Leave us alone and you’ll see
How we can drag down the State!
We are the worm in the wood!
We are the rot at the root!
We are the taint in the blood!
We are the thorn in the foot!

Mistletoe killing an oak—
Rats gnawing cables in two—
Moths making holes in a cloak—
How they must love what they do!
Yes—and we Little Folk too,
We are busy as they—
Working our works out of view—
Watch, and you’ll see it some day!

No indeed! We are not strong,
But we know Peoples that are.
Yes, and we’ll guide them along
To smash and destroy you in War!
We shall be slaves just the same?
Yes, we have always been slaves,
But you—you will die of the shame,
And then we shall dance on your graves!

We are the Little Folk, we, etc.

[magical thyme]

13. and his solution is to lower taxes on businesses and get rid of the minimum wage

quel surprise.

And he considers nursing to be a "lower end" skill set? What an ignorant ass he is.

Our entire infrastructure is crumbling, we don't have the money to repair, let alone upgrade it, but 20 years from now technology is magically going to take over everything?

Maybe for the 1%, who will hog up all the energy to ensure their lives continue in gilded splendor. For the rest of us, life will go on, albeit it a trashed environment and reduced circumstances.

[hunter]

27. Seriously, nursing??? What kind of machine can do that?

Even in Star Trek TNG there was only one Data and I doubt he'd have been a good nurse, especially with the less rational human patients...


Not a Nurse:





Gog The Robot, Definitely Not a Nurse:

[TheKentuckian]

33. Data despite not be human had more humanity than most, real or fiction.

What Data might be is a real shitty Robberbaron, that is not in his nature but I'd take him as a nurse, a mentor, doctor, lawyer, accountant, engineer, commander, and mostly a friend.
Unless you score George Bailey I doubt you'll do much better with out getting a deity involved in your day to day.

[hunter]

37. Data was often flummoxed by ordinary illogical human behaviors.

He could adapt and deal with most of them, but nurses must deal with a lot of illogical human behaviors that are in no way ordinary.

I see Data at his best in occupations where people generally agree to some standard of rationality.

As a kindergarten teacher, a middle school teacher, a nurse, I can see Data having some problems.

Spock might do better in those sorts of "people" professions. First, because he's half human, and second, he's got that Vulcan nerve pinch if a patient or student becomes combative.

[LuvLoogie]

53. Eat less; drink less; breathe less.

While you're at it, get yourself a warm weatherproof coat, prole.

[Nye Bevan]

14. If that stuff will be powered by Microsoft software, I fear for the future.

An unknown error has occurred. Your driverless car is being shut down to prevent damage to its operating system.

An error has occurred in your steak. Would you like to report this error to Microsoft? Abort, Retry, Ignore?

[burfman]

25. blue screen of death

Yeah the 'blue screen of death' would take on much more meaning if Windows was driving your car, flying your plane or assisting your doctor with the operation ....

[AngryAmish]

15. I bet we have 40% labor force participation rates in the future

What is the guy with 100 IQ who drives a truck gonna do when the job is automated? Is he gonna code? What happens when writing code is automated?

For young people I would tell them to get a skill that can't be automated. Plumber for example. Or something people are willing to oay a premium for for being handmade. Butchers for heritage pigs. Sausage maker. Barber.

[Blue_Adept]

18. Just introduce Skynet already.

Let's get it over with.

[reformist2]

19. Good! It will hasten the day we recognize the right to a basic income, regardless of work status.

[Skidmore]

34. That presumes the "makers" give a damn.

My guess is the don't and will only support life for those from whom they can wring money out of. Insert dystooia of your choice here. Any one or combination of them would work. I somehow can't envision them taking us where no one has gone before.

[exboyfil]

52. That is were the pitchforks and torches come in

with the guillotines soon to follow.

[Vashta Nerada]

20. Most of the jobs in retail and fast food can be done by automation.

I don't see a problem with this. People deserve better quality jobs. Save the shit work for the robots.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

31. Your "save the shit work for the robots" policy would result in the loss of jobs for

[font size="100"]8,000,000 WORKERS![/font]

[Vashta Nerada]

32. So people won't be getting that $7/HR.

I'm sure they'll weep over it.

[Skidmore]

35. How many of those 8m will be able to get these

cushy new jobs? Makes NAFTA look like a game of tiddly winks.

[TheKentuckian]

36. Are they going to eat pride? and what will I do when a PhD takes my job as the market reboots?

I'd agree with you but we have no alternative resource distribution system. No income is deadly perilous. Access to basic life sustaining necessities becomes dubious, at best. Folks need that 7 bucks to have shelter and eat and that big mess of people a little ahead of them making 10, 12, 15, and even 20 an hour aren't much safer even if some of the occupations are because automaton and efficiency reduces higher end labor needs as well and they will have to come down the ladder some and some of that labor can be cut too.

[Vashta Nerada]

44. Yeah, how much of your bills can you pay with a minimum wage job?

[TheKentuckian]

46. I'm not touting it as a fair living, I'm saying it is something. a something millions depend on to

scrape by.

You have to have some alternative means of distributing resources.

[former9thward]

47. More than you can pay with no wages.

[Vashta Nerada]

48. Barely.

[nadinbrzezinski]

55. Yes, so can good union jobs like in warehousing and logistics

such as... ready for this? THE UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE.

So how exactly are you going to reorganize the economy so people who do NOT have a PhD, or for that matter any college education, can make a living?

By the way, these jobs include in the future things like plumbers as well. Yes, you could replace some basic plumbing with a bot.

Just because we can do it, does not mean we need to do it. Trust me, the social dislocation you will not enjoy unless you truly reorganize the economy where work is not a requirement for income. No income, no spending, no economic activity.

[Chathamization]

21. His prediction is fairly bland and meaningless, so I imagine it’ll be correct

“20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower.”

What would prove him wrong, exactly? If the labor market remained static for the next 20 years? If there was no decrease in demand for any skill set? Predictions like this are particularly problematic because they encourage the listener to imagine some SciFi world run by robots, when the actual predictions are largely meaningless.

[steve2470]

22. It's already happening, partially

Yesterday my son and I went out to eat at Chili's (yea yea I know). On our table was a portable kiosk that allowed you to pay your bill without ever speaking to a server. What's next, a robot delivering food and drinks ? A robot takes your order ? A robot cooks the food ? This sucks.

[HereSince1628]

24. Self checkout isn't a task replaced by a bot. It's a task replaced by a customer

The checkout still takes a human interface...it's just not an employee doing the interface.

[exboyfil]

54. RFID indicating balance to your credit card as you leave

Carts that automatically bag when the customer picks. Eventually submit your list on the computer, all picking done by the computer and robots, items bundled, and you pick up at store. Eventually drones will deliver the goods to your door. It is scary in its implications.

[HereSince1628]

56. Yet, all that depends on a consumer with credit or money

If you want the dividend of milk, you've got to feed the cows.

My life expectancy will preclude me seeing how the balance is finally achieved, but I expect it isn't the future envisioned by Gates.

[bobduca]

23. I for one look forward to smarter bots

cuz the pragmatic personas deployed here fail the Turing test.

[Rex]

29. IKR!?

nt.

[Rex]

28. No Bill a lot of us do and we know you will be at the forefront making billions

off the software. THANKS for reminding us how bad things are going to get and please...stay away from public education. Thanks.

[regnaD kciN]

38. Sorry to say it...

The basis for "developed economies" is that people have jobs from which they earn money with which they can buy goods and services.

This will not be possible in the future and a new economic mechanism for distribution of goods and services will have to be developed.

...but, based on the way the world has been working for the past three decades, don't be surprised if the "new economic mechanism" will be something along the lines of "enhanced social Darwinism" (i.e. let those with no hope for a job simply starve to death to "weed out the weak" and "improve the human race&quot . In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if someone among the apologists for such a policy names it "right-sizing the population."

[gerogie2]

40. It's estimated 40 million or more workers will be displaced by bots in 15 years.

Millions of Americans will live in shanty towns.

[Generic Other]

41. Does he have a plan for dealing with the outdated human systems?

Oh right. No support available for them. Upgrade or die.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

42. There has to be a point at which technology and efficiency destroy a country

I think what Gates is saying is: we destroyed your country but it will take 20 years before you figure it out

The story kind of goes like this...

First there were brick and mortar bookstores in every neighborhood, all privately owned and staffed, all with different. Then more efficient models -- corporate bookstores like Borders -- wiped out all of the Mom & Pop shops creating vacant store fronts in every neighborhood and having a net negative effect on employment. Then Amazon comes along and wipes out the Borders and now all of the jobs in the neighborhoods are gone and the Borders stores join the other vacant stores. An industry that once employed hundreds of thousands now operates remotely and employs about 50,000.

Not excited about the future...

[gulliver]

43. We have a very passive idea of demand, imo.

We are already suffering from it big time. We think demand is something we need to sit around hoping for. The animal spirits have to drive demand. It's not something we can simply create at will. But it really is.

We also let money, a very strange-behaving, imaginary, derivative concept cage our thinking too much. Ultimately, people need to work because it is good for them, not because it is a prerequisite for their survival. And they shouldn't have to work in ways that damage society, breaking up and exhausting families, for example.

[Demo_Chris]

45. He is 100% correct. Within a decade even the picker jobs at Amazon will be automated...

I suspect the same is true with virtually every industry. And the service jobs that cannot be automated, if they can be outsourced they will be. Include in this jobs that probably shouldn't be outsourced, but will be anyway.

[Morning Dew]

49. Note to self: move Player Piano to non-fiction. n/t

[FreeJoe]

50. Hasn't this trend been going on since the days of the Luddites?

I've been writing software to make people more efficient for my entire adult life. Maybe that skews my perspective. We keep replacing jobs, but we always seem to find new things for people to do.

[creeksneakers2]

57. That's what I was thinking

Automation has been increasing for what, a hundred years? All along the way there were probably people saying there would be no more jobs. But automation brings costs downs, which makes things cheaper, leaving consumers with money left over to buy other things. Demand increases with supply because humans have infinite desires for more stuff. As long as people want things there will be work.