Where is proof that Ukraine's revolution was orchestrated by the West?

[DetlefK]

I've seen this claim a few times here on DU, but nobody bothered to substantiate that point and I never saw even hints towards that when reading news-sites.

Even if the Maidan-snipers were agent provocateurs of revolutionary forces, that doesn't automatically make them agents of the West.

Is there any proof?

[Cali_Democrat]

1. Bush invaded Iraq in 2003

..so no real proof is needed except for links to dubious websites.

[stevenleser]

2. The funny thing about this is, it's more reasonable to suspect KGB's successor organizations FSB/SVR

What happened in Ukraine is almost right out of the book of Soviet/Russian intelligence paving the way for interventions in Hungary and Czechoslovakia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KGB#In_the_Soviet_Bloc

It was Cold War policy for the KGB of the Soviet Union and the secret services of the satellite states to extensively monitor public and private opinion, internal subversion and possible revolutionary plots in the Soviet Bloc. In supporting those Communist governments, the KGB was instrumental in crushing the Hungarian Revolution of 1956, and the Prague Spring of "Socialism with a Human Face", in 1968 Czechoslovakia.

During the Hungarian revolt, KGB chairman Ivan Serov personally supervised the post-invasion "normalization" of the country. In consequence, KGB monitored the satellite-state populations for occurrences of "harmful attitudes" and "hostile acts;" yet, stopping the Prague Spring, deposing a nationalist Communist government, was its greatest achievement.

The KGB prepared the Red Army's route by infiltrating to Czechoslovakia many illegal residents disguised as Western tourists. They were to gain the trust of and spy upon the most outspoken proponents of Alexander Dubček's new government. They were to plant subversive evidence, justifying the USSR's invasion, that right-wing groups—aided by Western intelligence agencies—were going to depose the Communist government of Czechoslovakia. Finally, the KGB prepared hardline, pro-USSR members of the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia (CPC), such as Alois Indra and Vasil Biľak, to assume power after the Red Army's invasion.[16]

[magical thyme]

3. an intercepted phone call.

"In the intercepted phone call between U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Victoria Nuland and U.S. Ambassador to the Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, the two were, as Russian expert Stephen Cohen put it to Democracy Now, “plotting a coup d’état against the elected president of the Ukraine.”

At one point Nuland endorses “Yat” as the head of a new government, referring to Arseniy Yatsenyuk of the Fatherland Party, who indeed is now acting Prime Minister. But she goes on to say that Svoboda leader Oleh Tyahnybok should be kept “on the outside.”"

http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/03/03/the-dark-side-of-the-ukraine-revolt/

[msanthrope]

4. Do you have a transcript of the call that shows what you are claiming?

Since counterpunch aligned itself with noted anti-semite Israel Shamir, its pro Putin propaganda has gotten even more virulent.

Counterpunch also claims that one of Julian Assange's accusers was CIA....a claim laughingly and thoroughly debunked on this very site.

Do have an actual transcript of a call? Because otherwise you're using a source that's about as reliable as Infowars.

[magical thyme]

13. the article originated in Democracy Now

But of course, it's easier to just shoot the messenger than simply follow the link I provided.

http://www.democracynow.org/2014/2/20/a_new_cold_war_ukraine_violence

....But it was the European Union, backed by Washington, that said in November to the democratically elected president of a profoundly divided country, Ukraine, "You must choose between Europe and Russia." That was an ultimatum to Yanukovych. Remember—wasn’t reported here—at that moment, what did the much-despised Putin say? He said, "Why? Why does Ukraine have to choose? We are prepared to help Ukraine avoid economic collapse, along with you, the West. Let’s make it a tripartite package to Ukraine." And it was rejected in Washington and in Brussels. That precipitated the protests in the streets.....

VICTORIA NULAND: So that would be great, I think, to help glue this thing and have the U.N. help glue it. And, you know, [bleep] the EU.


GEOFFREY PYATT: Let me work on Klitschko, and if you can just keep—I think we want to try to get somebody with an international personality to come out here and help to midwife this thing. Then the other issue is some kind of outreach to Yanukovych, but we can probably regroup on that tomorrow as we see how things start to fall into place.


VICTORIA NULAND: So, on that piece, Geoff, when I wrote the note, Sullivan’s come back to me VFR saying, "You need Biden?" And I said, "Probably tomorrow for an attaboy and to get the deets to stick." So Biden’s willing.


STEPHEN COHEN: Cookies, cookies. Well, here again, the American political media establishment, including the right and the left and the center—because they’re all complicit in this nonsense—focused on the too sensational, they thought, aspect of that leaked conversation. She said, "F— the European Union," and everybody said, "Oh, my god! She said the word." The other thing was, who leaked it? "Oh, it was the Russians. Those dirty Russians leaked this conversation." But the significance is what you just played. What are they doing? The highest-ranking State Department official, who presumably represents the Obama administration, and the American ambassador in Kiev are, to put it in blunt terms, plotting a coup d’état against the elected president of Ukraine.

[Recursion]

24. Bwah

Yeah, expressing preferences of an election outcome is exactly plotting a coup d'etat. We're apparently plotting coups d'etats everywhere?

[msanthrope]

28. That simply does not back up your claims...expressing a preference two months after the protests

started isn't proof of staging a coup.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

31. Apparently I plotted coups against John McCain and Mitt Romney. nt

[stevenleser]

7. You realize the protests were happening for two months before that call right? Diplomats often

discuss their preferred leaders in future elections or when violent upheavals are happening. That does not mean they are engineering them. Add all of that to the fact that the US was quite openly advertising their attempt to mediate a solution to the crisis and you have an attempt by some corners to paint this as nefarious when it isn't.

Furthermore...

Russia is perfectly able to set up a lobbying group here in the US and meet with all kinds of elements to try to convince them of things. In a Democracy, they can try to convince segments of the populace to vote a certain way and they can try to convince our legislature to impeach the President.

If they are successful, the remedy is for those opposed to the new government to put together a coalition to vote them out at the next election. Not lobby for a foreign power to invade and take Florida.

[DetlefK]

8. Transcript: no proof of plotting or manipulation

http://www.democracynow.org/2014/2/20/a_new_cold_war_ukraine_violence

On that intercepted phone-call, they discussed what to do once Yanukovych is gone. That's no proof that the US worked actively on his ouster.

[magical thyme]

34. taken within context:

European Union makes offer to "help" Ukraine via IMF loans, austerity etc.
Putin makes offer to help Ukraine with discounted heating fuel and bigger loans without the austerity requirements.

European Union tells Ukraine, a country with a population divided between Europe and Russian loyalties, they most *choose* between Russia's offer and theirs.

Putin suggests tripartite agreement instead. European Union says no. A sharply divided country, per the European Union, must choose one side or the other.

Yanukovych makes the choice. Protests ensue from the half of the country that wants the other choice. Protests turn violent. Government sends out riot police.

President Obama calls on Yankuvych to call off the riot police.
Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland goes to the Ukraine, feeds people on the front lines the violent protests.

and then the phone conversation:

GEOFFREY PYATT: Let me work on Klitschko, and if you can just keep—I think we want to try to get somebody with an international personality to come out here and help to midwife this thing.


So who is Klitschko?

Tipped by some to be Ukraine’s next president, Klitschko also said he feared ethnic cleansing in the peninsula.

http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/17/ukraine-crisis-klitschko-warns-of-humanitarian-disaster-in-crimea/

IOW, the fix is in.

[reformist2]

5. US government officials rallying the crowds in Kiev + admission that $5 billion was spent funding it

And that was just from the state department. It's patently obvious that many private groups have been sending money to these groups for years...

[DetlefK]

9. Prove it.

[magical thyme]

35. Nuland admitted it herself.

[okaawhatever]

38. that money has been since Ukraine declared independence and is accounted for in various

budgets. There is no secret Washington and the EU have helped. Here's 1.8 Billion of it since independence:

USAID has provided $1.8 billion in critical development assistance in support of the Ukrainian people. Much of this development assistance has helped Ukrainians experience increased political freedoms, stronger transparency guarantees, and more economic and social opportunities.

Today, USAID/Ukraine implements a focused development assistance program to support: more participatory, transparent, and accountable governance; broad-based resilient economic development; and improved health status for Ukrainians. USAID also supports U.S. Presidential Initiatives in Global Health and Global Climate Change.

http://ukraine.usembassy.gov/usaid.html

How much has Russia given? What are it's intentions? Why did Putin offer a loan at 5% when the IMF was offering just under 3%? Why doesn't Putin want everything on paper the way the EU insists it be done?

[dipsydoodle]

6. Pretty much by association.

The EU wanted the trade agreement signed and the US wants Ukraine in NATO. Whether not the trade agreement is in fact in their interest is a matter of conjecture.

Nothing has indicated that the protesters were necessarily representative of the population of Ukraine - only fresh elections will show what is what.

Russia had no vested interest in removing their government.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

11. That's hardly proof. Those facts just as easily implicate Putin acting

to supersede the will of Ukrainians to protect his fiefdom.

[dipsydoodle]

15. In which case

what was Moscow's motive for helping remove the then current government which was pro Moscow.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

16. Um. What?

Yanukovych is Putin's puppet; hence, Yanukovych reneging on the reforms to join the EU, which -- as all observers will recall -- instigated the protests that led to Yanukovych's ouster.

[dipsydoodle]

19. Try reading the question again.

.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

20. Please restate the question.

It seems you're saying Moscow helped remove Yanukovych. That would be at odds with everything observed, particularly Russia's refusal to recognize the post-Yanukovych government and massing of troops on the Ukrainian-Russian frontier.

[dipsydoodle]

27. Then we are at cross purposes

My intention was to convey that Moscow had no motive for helping remove him.

btw Yanukovych didn't renege on the reforms to join the EU. What actually happened was that at the meeting with the EU when he had had already clear Ukraine would need funding of c. $8 billion for this year alone to help cover the transition the EU offered one billion only. That ended the meeting as it left no workable economic model.

In terms of reforms he had already lost IMF funding 2008 and 2010 by refusing to increase the price of gas to consumers and devalue their currency - both to help protect Ukraine's population. It is those same reforms that the now EU expect in return for the $15 billion now promised PLUS substantial reductions in government spending which will include lowering state pensions. Those conditions exactly mirror those of the IMF's now current terms too.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

29. "My intention was to convey that Moscow had no motive for helping remove him."

And it's my contention that Moscow wanted to keep their puppet seated firmly on their fist; which your contention does not contradict and it conforms to the fact that as soon as the puppet was removed the fist was revealed.

refusing to increase the price of gas to consumers and devalue their currency

Were the gas and currency artificially controlled? If so then all your complaining about is a requirement that bubbles be deflated before they reach crisis levels. Inflated currencies never end well and I defy you to provide a single instance of when it has worked.

And you can't say those controls were for "The People!" because Yanukovych and his gang were living in opulence.

[okaawhatever]

39. You fail to mention that the EU turned them down two years earlier because of their lack

of transparency and questionable governance. If the EU wanted Ukraine so bad they would already have them. But please educate us on what advantages there is to the CIS agreement? The EU and IMF have publicly disclosed their terms, inspections, and rules. If the CIS deal is so good, why won't Putin put his info out there publicly?

[dipsydoodle]

42. I wasn't drawing a comparison with an alternative trade agreement.

The EU seems to have been happy enough to have signed late November 2013 despite there being no material changes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93European_Union_relations

Since you ask I would assume the customs union proposed by Russia would match the customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customs_Union_of_Belarus,_Kazakhstan,_and_Russia

[riqster]

10. So far, none. Just ODS and CT.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

12. I don't think it's ODS in its purist form but

every time you remind the pro-Putin faction that Obama is the Chief Executive/Commander-in-Chief the conspiracies get deeper. I've been told the US government is so massive that entire departments operate autonomously, fabricating national policy without presidential guidance. And when challenged on that nonsense they go deeper, whispering about shadow governments and a President held hostage by nefarious cabals.

[MNBrewer]

14. COOKIES!!!

that is all.

[DetlefK]

17. You are only incriminating yourself.

What kind of cookies?
Are they western cookies, ukrainian cookies or russian cookies?
Did you bribe Ukrainians with cookies?
Do you know cookies who were involved in the overthrowing of the legitimate government of Ukraine?

You better answer. Your situation is not getting any better.

You have been warned. I'm keeping a close eye on your cookies... they might decide to secede from you and join me...

[MNBrewer]

21. They were good old fashioned American chocolate chip cookies

laced with CIA-provided LSD and other mind-control drugs.

[quinnox]

18. Not sure, but a couple questions that come to mind when considering it.

Has the U.S. ever orchestrated overthrowing governments in the past?

If they did so, would they not want it done in a secretive manner, so that proof or evidence would be hard to come by?

[Nuclear Unicorn]

22. That's not proof and if it were it would equally implicate the former head of the KGB. nt

[quinnox]

23. I didn't say it was proof, I said those are the questions that come to my mind when considering it

Has there been any historical instances of the U.S. doing this kind of thing?
and,
If they did, would they announce it, or want to keep it secret?

It doesn't necessarily mean it happened in this instance, its just the kind of questions I would think about, regarding the possibility.

[Recursion]

25. OK, between the US and Russia, which has done that more in the past century?

Keep in mind that was the explicit policy of the USSR for its entire existence.

[quinnox]

26. To that question I would think about what side it would benefit more, in this instance

It would make me think which side has more incentive to do this in this particular situation.

[riqster]

30. On the face of it, Moscow would gain more than the US.

Increased control of military and naval facilities, to say nothing of the gas pipelines that they would suddenly take ownership of. All for a relative pittance.

The US and NATO have no such assets in Crimea or Ukraine that they could immediately leverage.

[Recursion]

32. Moscow definitely has more at stake here than Washington

So, yeah, that's another reason I lean that way.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

33. Confusion of the inverse/Conditional Probability fallacy

1. In the past, the West has helped to orchestrate regime change in countries such as Iran and Chile.
2. Ukraine just went through regime change.
3. Ergo, the West orchestrated regime change in Ukraine.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confusion_of_the_inverse

[magical thyme]

36. video of Nuland discussing the $5B spent on the Ukraine, plus the sequence of key events

The US spends $5B paving the way discussed by Nuland:

European Union makes offer to "help" Ukraine via IMF loans, austerity etc. The offer is for $1B which will not come close to paying the Ukraines bills. Yanukovytch walks out of meeting.

Putin makes offer to help Ukraine with discounted heating fuel and bigger loans, without the IMF austerity requirements.

European Union tells Ukraine, a country with a population divided between Europe and Russian loyalties, they most *choose* between Russia's offer and theirs.

Putin suggests tripartite agreement instead. European Union says no. A sharply divided country, per the European Union, must choose one side or the other.

Yanukovych makes chooses the better Russian deal. Protests ensue from the half of the country that wants to go with the Euorpean Union.

Protests turn violent. Government sends out riot police.

Amid violent protests, President Obama calls on Yankuvych to call off the riot police.
Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland goes to the Ukraine, feeds protestors on the front lines

and then the phone conversation:

GEOFFREY PYATT: Let me work on Klitschko, and if you can just keep—I think we want to try to get somebody with an international personality to come out here and help to midwife this thing.


So who is Klitschko?

Tipped by some to be Ukraine’s next president, Klitschko also said he feared ethnic cleansing in the peninsula.

http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/17/ukraine-crisis-klitschko-warns-of-humanitarian-disaster-in-crimea/

IOW, the fix is in.

[Cali_Democrat]

37. This thread is so awesome

it's just filled with awesomeness.

Nobody can provide proof because there is no proof.

[Skidmore]

41. Some days DU reads like a neverending Tom Clancy novel that lost

the plot thread. Today is one of those days.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

40. Phase one:

Phase One: Pay Ukrainian ultranationalists to wreck havoc in Kiev
Phase Two: ?????
Phase Three: Regime change!!!!