"The Tea Party's Over"

[G_j]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/against-the-grain/the-tea-party-s-over-20140318

Outside conservative groups are experiencing the limits of their influence

FreedomWorks issued an unusual round of endorsements this week. The conservative group, which won publicity for backing intraparty challenges to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Rep. Mike Simpson, decided to play it safe this time. It endorsed three senators and nine congressmen, none of whom face any serious competition—Republican or Democratic. It stayed out of the contested Oklahoma primary for Sen. Tom Coburn's seat, but endorsed Republican James Inhofe, who doesn't face any GOP opposition. In South Carolina, FreedomWorks is backing Sen. Tim Scott, who's a lock for reelection, but it isn't doing anything against vulnerable Sen. Lindsey Graham, who's also on the ballot this year.

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Of the 10 "RINOs" in the House flagged for defeat by the Club for Growth last year, only one faces a primary opponent. With two of their leading Senate challengers' campaigns fizzling, the Senate Conservatives Fund has now decided to back conservatives in House primaries. And after raising only $766,000 in 2013—less than one-third of their 2011 fundraising—FreedomWorks is now backing Republicans who are so safe that they don't need any outside help. Conservative groups are even disagreeing on which races to target.

2014 is shaping up as the year the Republican establishment is finding its footing. Of the 12 Republican senators on the ballot, six face primary competition, but only one looks seriously threatened: Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi. More significantly, only two House Republicans are facing credible competition from tea-party conservatives: Simpson and Rep. Bill Shuster of Pennsylvania—fewer than the number of conservative House Republicans facing competition from the establishment wing (Reps. Justin Amash, Walter Jones, and Kerry Bentivolio). With filing deadlines already passed in 23 states, it's hard to see that dynamic changing.

Even the Club for Growth, one of the first outside groups to target Republican members of Congress, has been notably disciplined this year. Last February, the Club encouraged candidates to run against 10 squishy House Republicans, launching a PrimaryMyCongressman.com site featuring the so-called RINOs. Only one qualified challenger emerged. Their PAC is targeting just one Republican senator (Cochran, facing state Sen. Chris McDaniel) and one Republican congressman (Simpson). Meanwhile, they've joined forces with the party establishment in backing Senate candidates Rep. Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Dan Sullivan of Alaska. The endorsement of Sullivan is significant, since they backed Joe Miller's losing general-election campaign against Sen. Lisa Murkowski in 2010. Miller's running again, but this time they're opposing him in the primary.

Given the mood of the Republican electorate, it's striking to see the disconnect between the number of conservative Senate primary challenges and the low number of conservatives running against House incumbents. With 211 Republicans running for reelection, only two are credibly being challenged from the right—less than 1 percent. That suggests the hunger for throwing out Republican senators is as much a product of outside intervention as a reflection of genuine grassroots opposition.

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[yuiyoshida]

1. Who is going to tell

Ted Cruz?