The Coming Job Apocalypse

[reformist2]

Both the writer and the commenters all have interesting things to say about what technology (and free trade) are doing to the job market, and how make-work programs and endless rounds of "retraining" can't fix it. People are finally getting it. Wealth redistribution is coming. It'll take some time for some to get used to the idea, but it's coming.

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The Coming Job Apocalypse


By Harold Meyerson

March 26, 2014

As a general rule, more Americans work than do the citizens of other advanced economies. Since the late 1970s, when the number of women in the workforce ballooned, the share of Americans who either had jobs or were trying to get one was greater than the share of comparable Europeans. For reasons good and bad — the higher availability of jobs, the need to bolster stagnating incomes, the linkage of jobs to health insurance — Americans worked like the dickens.

But that general rule may be changing. The percentage of working-age adults in the U.S. labor force began to decline in 2000, when it reached a peak of 67 percent. As of last month, it was down to 63 percent, which is lower than the level in the United Kingdom. Not since the late 1970s has Britain had a higher share of workforce participants than the United States.

The way to deal with such a job apocalypse would begin with the very measures that we have failed to enact to combat the cyclical downturn that began in 2008: a massive government program to build and repair our infrastructure and to provide the preschool education and elder care that the nation needs, which would increase consumption and economic activity generally.

Eventually, however, as computers pick up more and more skills, we will have to embrace the necessity of redistributing wealth and income from the shrinking number of Americans who have sizable incomes from their investments or their work to the growing number of Americans who want work but can’t find it. That may or may not be socialism; certainly, it’s survival.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/harold-meyerson-technology-and-trade-policy-is-pointing-america-toward-a-job-apocalypse/2014/03/26/ba331784-b513-11e3-8cb6-284052554d74_allComments.html?ctab=all_&

[Laelth]

1. k&r for exposure. n/t

-Laelth

[RoccoR5955]

2. They will always need people

to fix the damn computers when they fail.
Not if they fail, but when they fail, because they always do.
They need coders too, even crappy coders, to write the code for the damn computers.

[stevenleser]

13. I disagree. Robots will get sophisticated enough to repair most if not all machines. Code can also

be done eventually with AI computers without a human involved.

[rock]

21. Doubt it

Sincerely doubt it.

[Xithras]

32. You don't think that we'll ever invent AI?

There are literally THOUSANDS of researchers around the world who have dedicated their careers to AI development, and only ONE of them has to figure it out to change the world.

I have a Masters in Computer Science, taught Computer Science at colleges for years, and follow AI research closely. I'd say we're 25 years out, at the most. There's have been some rather fascinating discoveries about human cognition over the past few years that have brought the possibility of true cognitive artificial AI much closer.

To really change the world, of course, you don't actually need invent true AI anyway. All you really need are independent problem solving skills to enable inventiveness. Once you do that, it can solve the rest of its limitations on its own.

[peabody]

30. Yes, but the

number of people needed to program and repair these computers will less than the number of people that the computers replace. I don't have a source for this but it's just my guess--and worry.

[JaneyVee]

34. Robots will be building robots designed to replace

The American worker with robots.

[4dsc]

3. if only machine could replace lawyers

then we'd be advancing forward.

[Glitterati]

4. You do realize that both Barack and Michelle Obama are lawyers

Correct?

[TBF]

7. Calm down - even Shakespear

said the first thing we do is "kill all the lawyers". I think it's just a literary reference.

[nxylas]

12. It's technically true that Shakespeare said that

In that he wrote the play, Henry VI Part 2, in which it appears. But it was actually said by a minor character named Dick, an ally of the traitorous Jack Cade, in a discussion about their plot for revolution. Given that Cade and Dick are portrayed as villains, it is hard to imagine that it represents Shakespeare's own view.

[Glitterati]

22. No need to calm down

I was just pointing out that painting with a broad brush sometimes gets friends and family.

[TBF]

23. Understood -

I do think it was meant as a tongue in cheek or literary comment. But I understand being on edge. I get tired of all the bashing as well. No worries ...

[AngryAmish]

11. Computers have replaced many lawyers

For example document review. Fewer scheduling hearings, all done via email.

[LongTomH]

27. Expert Systems are reducing the need for law clerks

I've read of at least one person who left a career as a paralegal because salaries are dropping as expert systems reduce the need for her profession.

Expert systems are the most prevalent form of artificial intelligence currently in use. They're used in medical offices to aid in diagnosis as well as calculating mortgage loan risks.

[Dustlawyer]

18. I'm a lawyer and a Progressive in Texas. I fight BP and the other oil companies that are

ruining the environment, and I am from and live in Texas. Since I am an attorney and from Texas, I guess I have 2 strikes against me and should be, what, thrown in jail, what?
When will people ever learn not to generalize and stereotype other groups of people? I have known some shitty attorneys and some who are some of the most kind and caring people you would ever want to meet.
What do you do 4dsc? Is everyone in your field a fine, upstanding individual? You don't have both good and bad people in your profession/job? Give me a break, find some other bogeyman to blame shit on!

[DebJ]

5. I couldn't access the article, but did it take THIS into account?

In 2013, the oldest baby boomers (depending on birth years used) reached a common retirement age in the United States—67 years. If the 1946-1964 Baby Boomer is taken, that is 18 years in total duration, 9 years would be midway point into the boom, the year 1955.
Baby boomers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomers


The old 'bulge in the belly of the snake' has caused lots of statistics to change over the last half century.

On Edit: got it from the google:
"Part of this decline is because of the retirement of aging boomers, but that explanation goes only so far. It doesn’t explain, for instance, why the workforce participation of Americans ages 25 to 34 has declined from 83.3 percent to 81.8 percent since 2007, as the Financial Times reported this week. Worse yet, the number of hours that working Americans are on the job is in decline, too. In the past six months, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the average workweek has shrunk from 34.5 hours to 34.2 hours — even as the official unemployment rate has dropped. "

[sendero]

8. The link...

... takes you to the comments page. At the top of that page is the article title, which is a link to the article.

The author claims that the boomers demo was accounted for but does not begin to account for the job losses. This guy is not alone, several analysts have been pushing this idea for a while now. I don't think this is very controversial, it is happening before our eyes and will continue.

[DebJ]

9. I just looked at some census bureau (older) population pyramids.

i think they are from around 2004 or 2005 maybe, and they show population distribution by age
for 2000 and projected for 2025.

For 2025, more than 50% of the population is either over the age of 60, or under the age of 19.
When you consider that in the 20-60 age range, there are also factors preventing employment
outside the home (disability, child care at home, other reasons), then we would have employment
participation well below 50% purely for demographic reasons.

[DeSwiss]

6. K&R

Technological Unemployment

[woo me with science]

10. Guaranteed living income.

[daleanime]

14. K&R....

Bookmarked.

[Dustlawyer]

15. That's the real crux, they hate uncoupling of health insurance from jobs!

By having jobs and insurance go together like peanut butter and jelly, the wealthy keep labor prices cheap with lots of people working for the health insurance. Remove that barrier and you lose some of the labor market. This in turn causes more demand for labor and thus they have to sweeten the hiring package and raise wages.
We worked more hours than Europeans because we have to, not because we are inherently more industrious. Single payor would put us even with the rest of the world and keep the employers from being able to continue to take advantage over us. Keep it up!!!

[Jesus Malverde]

16. Location aware robots are going to put millions out of work.

3d printers are another revolution.

The world is changing faster than policy makers and social programs can keep up.

[KurtNYC]

17. Plumber, electrician, contractor, health care, mechanic, delivery and transportation,

farmer, police and fire, ...none of these can be outsourced or done by computers.

I accept the premise that productivity, arbitrage and technology are, in general, working against the American standard of living and that is why the American standard of living has been in decline since 1977. But we are currently focused on the wrong answer for this transition: "send every kid to college" (!)

The lemming like focus on college is only making the transition worse. College was the ticket to a mid level job in the 1950s but is now a guarantee of nothing other than expense and debt.

When Americans start to see that things are NEVER going "back to normal" and start to accept that the new normal is that we can't afford half the things we used to then we will have a chance to stop the decline. We must embrace and legalize the right of Americans to grow their own food and medicine, to live off the grid, to barter with goods and service and to escape the treadmill of debt we live in now.

[HughBeaumont]

19. Well, with potentially millions of workers not having a paycheck coming in, who pays these people?

With no tax revenue coming in, how do the police, firefighters and librarians escape budget cuts?

Did this never occur to the scorched-earth capitalists?

Capitalism "as is" will lead to nothing but crime, riots and murder. Start unemploying people like me (you know, the one propping up the consumer economy) by the metric ton and see where this grand Ponzi scheme goes.

[Jesus Malverde]

20. Because your not thinking outside the box.

Delivery and transportation are on their way with drivers less cars.

Health care is more and more technology based. Much of the work, lab tests, scans, and patient monitoring is done by machines. The current revolution in technology is "wearable technology".

Mechanics may be endangered as we move towards electric vehicles that have components that can be swapped out rather than serviced in the vehicle. Manufacturers have often relied on after sales service for profits. Companies like tesla don't even plan dealer networks.

Once manufacturers start building cars to be serviced by robots, mechanics will be less and less needed.

Police are already being replaced with CCTV, automated license plate scanners, and other technology that will some day bring us the patrolling drone. Certain aspects of policing will be harder to manage however the technology is on the move. Imagine Boston Dynamic robots powered by google as a brain.

Plumber and electrician might be harder to manage but not if we start building swappable component housing.

A sample plumbing revolution is the move from copper to pex pipes. One required skill to put together, the latter is very much like connecting a cord to an outlet.

I don't think your being aggressive enough with your assumptions about how screwed workers are.

[raccoon]

25. Don't you think most Americans start to see that things are NEVER going "back to normal" ? nt

[KurtNYC]

29. Statistically Americans always think thing will get better.

There is a joke in Ireland: What is the difference between an Irish guy and an American guy?
Answer: The American guy looks at the rich guy on the hill and says 'some day that'll be me.' But the Irish guy looks at the rich guy on the hill and says 'some day...I'll go up there and kick that guy's ass.'

People are encouraged to think that their house will be worth more next year than this, and that credit/debt can smooth out the little downturns. On DU, I see many who advocate and seem to believe that 'manufacturing jobs will come back' or that producing even more college graduates would translate into a better economy, neither or which seems borne out in the details.

I think majority of Americans have no idea that our standard of living has been in decline for the last 35 years and shows no signs of going back up.

[SoCalDem]

33. While this is true, these people must rely on earnings of others for their wages

Everything is connected..

[Wilms]

24. ^

[TBF]

26. This wouldn't have to be a bad thing

if Americans can learn to think outside of the box.

The Venus Project has allocated a resource based economy rather than using currency for awhile now. (www.venusproject.com). I only became aware of this group when someone else on DU pointed me to them a couple of years ago but it is definitely food for thought.

The hard part is convincing the 85 people in this world who own the majority of the wealth that we need a sustainable economy for all of us - not just them.

[Initech]

28. Another doom and gloom article that broad brushes the real problem in society.

It's not robots. It's income inequality. When the top 85 people control more wealth than the bottom 3 billion? That's what will lead to a job apocalypse.

[WillyT]

31. K & R !!!