Dems Are Trying To Diss Nate Silver in Donations Ads

[discocrisco01]

I got this e-mail from the Democratic National Committee

"Here is the article for funding the Democratic election

"Sam --

Last week, Nate Silver released his model for the 2014 election, which said that Republicans are a slight favorite to win the U.S. Senate.

We're doomed!

But just before that, Nate Silver released his NCAA Tournament model, which showed that Duke had a 92.9 percent chance of beating Mercer in the first round. And did you see how that turned out for the Blue Devils? Yeah, they lost.

Mercer defeats Duke

Models are valuable, and they help us make a lot of strategic decisions. But they don't determine our destiny, and they aren't a substitute for hard work.

Leslie Knope's advice on hard work

So if 11 people like you from Mission Viejo step up right now, before our first quarterly deadline of 2014, we can make sure that Nate Silver's current math winds up looking a little silly in about seven months.

Chip in $10 or more before Monday:

https://my.democrats.org/Step-Up

Thanks!

Matt

Matt Compton
Digital Director
Democratic National Committee"

So the Dems are trying to diss Nate Silver like they did in 2012. The reality is that Nate Silver is right not because the country supports the GOP policies, but rather high voter dissatisfaction from white, older voters who typically show up in midterm elections and a higher chance of the GOP nominating viable center-right Senate candidates who vote conservative, but who do not use the inflammatory language of the tea party. The subject GOP candidates would appeal to older, white conservative-leaning independents who would typically vote GOP candidates that are mainstream, but are turned off by tea party extremists.

These people really did not like Obamacare to start with, but gave it an open mind, but saw how the program appeared to struggle and not offer the healthcare that the independent voters thought it would deliver. Therefore, their expectations were not met and they choose to jump ship back to the GOP which is the party of choice among these voters.

These voters are not "centrists", but rather moderate conservatives who call themselves independent and that are white. This the group of voters that elected all of the Blue Dogs in 2006 because the war in Iraq was a bust. And this is the same group of voters who voted the Dems out in 2010. They are a fickle group to please for liberals and prefer vote to the GOP line if they got their way. A lot of the voters live in red states and that is why the Dems are going to lose.

Since most people do not see any real "promise" in the current change of the affairs, they are mostly likely to stay at home because they are not traditionally involved with politics and only vote in Presidential years when the Dems has a dynamic, charismatic candidate that has something to offer younger votes.

This is why Nate Silver made the predictions the way that he did. At least, that is what my analysis tells me.

[ConservativeDemocrat]

1. I don't doubt Nate Silver's polls are correct...

...at this very moment. However, that doesn't mean that those voters, faced with the prospect of a health care law that is actually starting to work, and work well, won't change their minds.

I don't see any "dissing" of Mr. Silver. Only a reminder that polls are not destiny. And a 51% chance is not the same thing as a 99% chance. You still have to play the game.

- C.D. Proud Member of the Reality Based Community