Carville: If GOP Loses Against Hillary, "The Republican Party Will Be Extinct"

[n2doc]

JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: That's going to be the dominant issue. Fast forward to January 2015. The most likely, not the only scenario, is Hillary Clinton is the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Everybody is going to have a poll showing how they fare in the general election against Hillary. That is going to be -- they're not going to not nominate somebody because of common core, just me. The party knows -- and I use this word advisedly -- that if it loses the 2016 presidential election, the Republican Party as we know it today will be extinct, it will...

LAURA INGRAHAM: We heard that in 2008...

CARVILLE: And (inaudible) six out of be the sixth out of seventh election they've lost the popular vote. The Republicans want to win this. And they will do -- that's going to be the biggest issue in January 2016. I can beat Hillary Clinton. We have to win this election.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/04/13/carville_if_gop_loses_against_hillary_the_republican_party_will_be_extinct.html

[JoePhilly]

1. Um, no.

If you watched the show, what Carville was saying was that the most important issue facing any GOP candidate in the GOP primaries will be "who can beat Hillary."

And so, that's going to be the "biggest issue" between those GOP primary candidates ... not some policy issue ... the only issue that will matter in their primary is who can convincingly claim, "I can beat Hillary."

He wasn't rooting for them to achieve this goal.

[onehandle]

2. Rambling old man talks to asshole.

Did he go on to say he wants to defeat Hillary? I don't believe that's true.

And if they lose in 2016, they do have big troubles.

Just sounds like political pillow talk to me.

[House of Roberts]

3. He was speaking abstractly.

Carville isn't for the Rs.

I don't think the Republican Party will be extinct, but they will become a regional party, without any national hopes in the foreseeable future.

[el_bryanto]

5. Well they will probably evolve - possibly split

The Party Leaders and Wall Street Republicans aren't going to let the party permanently go away. So they will make some sort of adjustment, possibly by taking more control over the Democrats and moving it further right, or by splitting off the Tea Party and moving the Republicans back to the middle.

Bryant

[Silent3]

4. I'm not ready to call a party that's got a good chance of winning the Senate...

...and is very, very likely to hold the House "extinct", or even close to extinct.

I'd like for it to be true, dear God, I'd like for it to be true, and I can see the signs of internal party breakdown, I can see the demographic writing on the wall...

...but somehow a huge portion of the US population either is clueless in their apathetic low-information way about what an extremist party the Republican party has become, a not insignificant portion of the electorate is part of that extremism themselves, and the most big money supports both the Republican politicians and the ignorance that props them up.

[lunasun]

6. +1

[enough]

7. With so many issues (fracking/environment, voting rights, abortion, health care, etc.), the states

are a truly significant battleground. The R's are not going shut up shop if they don't win the presidency in '16.

[global1]

8. We Have To Get Passed 2014 First.....

and if the talk is that the Repubs will maintain the House because of gerrymandering and that they will win the Senate - do you really think that if Hillary becomes President in 2016 that the Repubs are going to be extinct? IMHO - think again. How many times have I read that the Repubs are finished here on DU?

[DetlefK]

9. Carville suggests the Republicans to run a personality-driven campaign?

Bad advice for them.

There simply are no charismatic republican prospects, now that Christie is out. The few moderate Republicans that still hold power are held hostage by the Tea Party and won't be able to build a bigger tent.

That leaves only negative ads as a tool: "Elect X or Hillary will win!"

The Dems could safely list their proposals (like investment and jobs-programs and whatever) and credentials (like better living-conditions for millions because of ACA; shrinking deficit) and the Republicans would scream "Bogeyman! Bogeyman!" the whole time.

Statistics show that voters dislike campaigns with too much focus on negative ads.




Without a charismatic candidate, the Republicans have to run an issue-driven campaign, but they are ill-suited for that as well:
They can explain what they are against, but what do they stand for?

Republicans have painted themselves into an ideological corner: During the whole Obama administration, they laid out extremist proposals designed to get them everything they want, right now, before the pendulum swings back in Obama's favor. Apart from extremist "I want it all and I want it now!"-proposals, they've got nuthin'.
They have convinced themselves and their voters that backing down and compromising is not only wrong, but outright evil.
They can't even bring their own party together to craft an alternative healthcare-law!
And such a party is supposed to come up with ideas that even democratic swing-voters could support?

[Proud Public Servant]

10. Carville's whistling past the graveyard

A win by Hillary, or any Dem (and any decent Dem could win; we don't need Hillary) won't make the GOP extinct. What it will do is make them retreat to their strongholds and retrench. And what are their strongholds?

1) The House - gerrymandering ain't going away until at least 2020, and maybe not even then because...

2) The states - The GOP controls 50% more state legislatures than we do, and GOP single-party state rule (i.e., one party controlling both the legislature and the governorship) outnumbers Dem single-party state rule nearly 2-to-1.

3) The Senate - not a stronghold per se, but two facts are worth reckoning with: (a) As big a loss as Romney had in 2012, he still won 24 states, and the few Dem senators in those states are among the most endangered; (b) blue states are, on the whole, less solidly blue than red states are red; in other words, it's easier to elect a GOP senator in one of our states than it is to elect a Dem senator in one of theirs. Give the GOP a floor of 44-48 seats, and ongoing viability in blue states, and the Senate will always be vulnerable.

4) Local governance - the GOP has excelled for decades in advancing its agenda through control of local governance bodies like city councils and school boards; we, by contrast, seem fixated on the federal government, perhaps imagining that it doesn't matter who controls our towns and schools as long as we're Ready for Hillary. It's a foolish, foolish strategy.

The GOP isn't going anywhere. Their presidential aspirations may be in for a long winter, similar to what the Democratic party went through in the late 19th century. But winters end.