Democratic Odds of Keeping The Senate Are Improving Every Single Day

[babylonsister]

GOTV!!

http://www.politicususa.com/2014/04/22/democratic-odds-keeping-senate-improving-single-day.html

Democratic Odds of Keeping The Senate Are Improving Every Single Day
By: Jason Easley
Tuesday, April, 22nd, 2014, 7:30 pm



The latest New York Times projection show Republican odds of capturing the Senate are declining, and that the Democrats may keep control of the US Senate.

The NY Times’ latest projection found that things are looking better for Democrats:

Every day, our computer churns through the latest polls and reams of historical data to calculate both parties’ chances of winning control of the Senate. Although the Democrats currently have a 51 percent chance, that doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Democrats to win the Senate — the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.

The Republicans’ chances have been declining in recent weeks, falling from a recent high of 54 percent. This is mostly due to some unfavorable polls in Arkansas and Iowa.

It should be noted that the Times gives Republicans an over 70% chance of keeping their Senate seats in Georgia (73%) and Kentucky (79%). This projection isn’t matching up well with what appears to be happening in each state. In both Kentucky and Georgia, it looks like Democrats have at least a 50/50 chance of taking one or both of those seats.

If one listens to the mainstream media, or talking heads on cable news, it is possible to come away with the impression that the Republican takeover of the Senate is a done deal, but this based more on opinion than reality. The only people who should be shocked if Democrats keep control of the Senate will be Republicans, who are again convincing themselves that they are sure to win, and the talking head pundits on television.

Democrats are facing a tough landscape, but they also possess superior candidates and organization.

The missing puzzle piece for Democrats in midterms has always been turnout. If they get even a reasonable turnout, Mitch McConnell’s dream of being majority leader will be crushed and denied.

[Dawson Leery]

1. I disagree about Kentucky.

Turtle is behind (within the margin of error). A thirty year incumbent should not be in this position (conservative state). He should have at minimum a 10 point lead close to 50%.

Kentucky is a toss-up.

[babylonsister]

3. From the article-

the writer didn't agree either. I live in GA: it's pretty early, but I'm hopeful.

This projection isn’t matching up well with what appears to be happening in each state. In both Kentucky and Georgia, it looks like Democrats have at least a 50/50 chance of taking one or both of those seats.

[Dawson Leery]

11. All the nominees in Georgia are crazed. Which one will the Rethugs nominate?

The grounds for the Kentucky senate race are in place, which is why we know that Turtle is in deep trouble.

[bullimiami]

15. all the nc regooflicans are running against obamacare

[Zambero]

16. Looking ahead to 2016

Tables will be turned on the GOP, as they will have nearly twice as many incumbent seats to defend, and some of those are bound to be vacated by current Senators. If Dems can hold the line in 2014, there may be an opportunity to get to a filibuster proof majority in another couple of years.

[mopinko]

22. i disagree about both

unless bob creamer doesnt know what he is talking about, which i doubt.
he talks at our local dem meeting and stated that he thought we had a good chance in both states.
especially kentucky. grimes is gonna mop the floor with turtle wax.

[Laelth]

2. k&r for exposure. n/t

-Laelth

[MoonRiver]

4. Love reading this!

[Gothmog]

5. November is still several months away

A great deal can change and do not discount the ability of the Tea Party to cost the GOP senate seats

[Cha]

6. Kick for Hope and GOTV2014 DEMS~

mahalo babylonsistah

[rufus dog]

7. Dems will keep the Senate and win the House.

1. It is early
2. The MSM has consistently favored the GOP for the last couple of decades.
3. Focus not on individual races yet. In the past few cycles there have been numerous instances of major repub candidates having meltdowns leading to lost seats and tarnishing of other Repubs.

[babylonsister]

8. From your lips-that would be lovely! nt

[WinstonSmith4740]

20. Tend to agree...

I remember '98, when Democrats were supposed to get their butts handed to them. It was post-Lewinski, Clinton was damaged goods, immoral, irrelevant, etc. The pundits were talking about a 50 seat Republican gain in the House. Dems made small gains in the House(4), and held their own in the Senate. It was the first time since 1934 that the out-of-Presidency party failed to gain congressional seats in a mid-term election, and the first time since 1822 that the party not in control of the White House failed to gain seats in the mid-term election of a President's second term. And let's not forget how Romney was supposed to be ahead in the polls almost the whole Presidential campaign.

You're right...it's early, and I have learned to never underestimate the Republican ability to put both feet in their mouths, and to insult major parts of the electorate. However, Dems can't sit around and wring their hands about all the voter suppression BS, Koch money, slimy campaign practices, etc. They've gotta come out swinging, and keep at it. And, of course, GOTV.

[sheshe2]

9. Lets, make it a Democratic win@ GOTV2014!

[toby jo]

10. Can't get enough of this.

Keeps me from WTF?ing every time I see they have a lead somewhere when I've just read something they've done or what they stand for.

[DirtyDawg]

12. Don't discount...

...the idiocy of Georgia voters. Just because it'll make perfect sense to elect a BlueDog, female with a wonderful background and an even greater, political, name - Michelle Nunn - the odds that these stupid wingnuts will actually 'do the right thing' are way longer than 50-50.

[babylonsister]

13. It might depend on where you live. I will be doing my part

to elect Michelle.

I want Deal gone. I do wonder if that's possible.

[chuckstevens]

14. Don't Forget About Electronic Vote Fraud!

They did it in 2002 and 2004! They can do it again and the Democrats and Eric Hold will write strongly worded letters AFTER Mitch McConnell is sworn in as the new Majority Leader.

We have to stir up many more votes for Democratic candidates to combat Karl Rove from having "the Math" in November. Everyone needs get at least 10 people to come with them on Election day 2014!

[Zambero]

17. Anymore, it tends to backfire on them

Purging, disenfranchising, and selectively throwing up every roadblock conceivable -- this is what real FRAUD is all about. People know what's up, and more than a few will go the extra mile (literally) to vote, and wait in line to cast ballots once at the polls. The whole conservative strategy is based on desperation, as they see chances for absolute control of all levels of gov't slipping away.

[Kingofalldems]

18. David Gregory not liking this at all.

[DCBob]

19. great news!

I was suspecting this given whats happened with Obamacare.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

21. The media narrative is based on a false history....

They are using a "conventional wisdom" that is not based on reality.

In their warped sense of history the parties take turns. As if it's up to THEM and not the People. They are married to the Red State / Blue State Myth as if the states have always been that way and always WILL BE that way.

Their narrative doesn't hold up through even a cursory examination. Face it. California was a Republican stronghold for most of my adult life. California voted for Nixon TWICE, then Ford, then Reagan TWICE, then Bush the Elder. Then it voted for Clinton and suddenly the Republicans called it "The Left Coast" and acted like California would NEVER vote Republican EVER AGAIN.

Then there's Carter who was the DARLING of the Deep South at the time.

The media is flat out WRONG. They claimed 2008 was going to be Rudy versus Hillary.

Face it. In 2010 young people didn't turn out. Women didn't turn out.

Most were like, "Huh? Vote again? We just did that."

Now they know mid-terms matter.

[IronLionZion]

24. I hope our people turn out this time

Nixon and Reagan were Californians so they had home state advantage.

People move a lot. Some conservative states have gotten more moderates and liberals moving in. It was unthinkable for Obama to get Indiana, NC, and a district in Nebraska in 2008, but he did as well as some other mountain and midwestern states.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

25. A lot of people were voting against the GOP for lying us into a war.

[IronLionZion]

27. Plus the financial crisis was playing out

with the whole economy collapsing under Republicon control.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

28. While McCain was claiming the economy was strong and having NO plans to fix it....

Meanwhile Palin was exposing herself to be Dan Quayle in snow boots.

[MineralMan]

23. We can help make it happen.

GOTV 2014 and Beyond!

[1StrongBlackMan]

26. From the Article ...

The missing puzzle piece for Democrats in midterms has always been turnout. If they get even a reasonable turnout, Mitch McConnell’s dream of being majority leader will be crushed and denied.

Hell ... if Democratic turn-out is reasonable, McConnell's desire to remain in the Senate will be crushed and denied.

[Tarheel_Dem]

29. "Mitch McConnell’s dream of being majority leader will be crushed and denied".