Smarterer Power

[Nuclear Unicorn]

Is Putin at Risk of Being Overthrown by a Coup?

Staunton, April 28 – Many in Russia and the West have speculated that the combination of Vladimir Putin’s policies against Ukraine, Moscow’s increasing isolation internationally, and deteriorating economic conditions at home will eventually lead to a Maidan-style challenge to his rule.

That is possible, of course, but a man identified as a former FSB officer and speaking on condition of anonymity suggests that there may be another and more immediate threat to the Kremlin leader: a coup by the siloviki [power ministers] and groups allied with them who believe that Putin’s policies are hurting not only the country but their personal interests.

“Everyone understands that there is simply no reason to fight with the entire world in the name of some absurd historical principles,” he says, adding that “everyone understands that the Soviet phobia of the FSB that the American enemy is close and will soon attack has lost its significance.”

Instead, he says, they recognize that “war in the 21st century more typically takes the form of economic blockades and information propaganda rather than guns and military technology.”

Such understanding is widespread, the purported ex-FSB officer says, but “the people of Russia are hardly likely to rise up in revolt.” On the other hand, it is quite possible that those close to Putin will. The billionaires around him see Putin’s policies as destroying their wealth, much of which is abroad, and they won’t support his isolating policies forever.

Moreover, he continues, “no one in Russia needs” those poor Ukrainian regions into which so much money will have to be poured at a time when “Russia itself is threatened with a deep economic crisis.” That crisis alone will reduce the wealth of the oligarchs, and Putin’s Ukrainian actions will accelerate that process.

The only “way out,” this individual says, is “the physical destruction of Putin or a repetition of the Ukrainian scenario.” There is no other way, given that in his view, the Kremlin leader has “really lost touch with reality” and won’t be able to hide Russia’s domestic problems for long by foreign aggression.

http://www.interpretermag.com/is-putin-at-risk-of-being-overthrown-by-a-coup/

Say what you will about money-grubbing oligarchs but at least their single-mindedness makes them predictable and that makes them manageable.

In a broader view: This could become the beginning of the end of war on the scale of WW2. Weapons have, ironically, become so lethal that a platoon can now wield the destructive power of a battalion creating a condition where fewer people are dying. It is no longer practical to mass troops because they become vulnerable to that destructive power -- and it costs a lot of money as well to deploy the newest technologies or a sufficient quantity to absorb their destructiveness.

If international conflict can be resolved with the oligarchs taking shots at each other's bank accounts while we the peasants are too burdensome to deploy into combat zones nobody wants to fight for so much the better for the 99%.

I do not know how much credence can be given to this article but if true kudos to Obama for picking the response he chose, rather than McCain's insane, unimaginative ravings.



PS -- Yes, "smarterer" was deliberate.

[1StrongBlackMan]

1. From what I gather ...

the only thing saving Putin is Europe's myopic chasing of profits through refusing to go along with the sanctions.

If European capital would suffer, maybe, a quarter of loses, Putin would have no where to go but to back down, as his country's economic gears begin grinding from lack of liquidity.