Midterm Election Turnout Isn’t So Different From Presidential Year Turnout

[Capt. Obvious]

....

The same thing works in reverse, when we take 2010’s turnout rates and apply them to 2012. With just midterm voters casting a ballot, President Obama would have won the national vote in 2012 by 1.2 points. That’s 2.7 points less than his actual margin in 2012, but it’s more than enough to have carried the election.

It’s not that the demographic splits of voter turnout don’t matter. They worked in Republicans’ favor in 2010 and in Democrats’ favor in 2012; demographics just weren’t the reason either party won.

What really mattered was that voters changed their minds about which party they wanted to vote for. Look at the voting patterns of each group. Republican congressional candidates won white voters who were at least 30 years old by 25.9 points in 2010, but Mitt Romney won them by only 20.2 points in the presidential race in 2012. Obama’s margin among black voters 30 and older was 89.4 points in 2012, while House Democrats’ margin for this group was 79.1 points in 2010.

....

Chances are the midterm penalty will strike again in 2014. Democrats and Republicans are currently tied in national House ballot polls among registered voters, and over time the party not in the White House usually gains support. Add to this the fact that even in 2012 Democrats did worse among likely voters and you can see why the national tide will probably go against them once again. Perhaps the cliché should be, “It’s all about turnout, except for when it isn’t.”

Charts, numbers, etc

[1StrongBlackMan]

1. Posted to for later reading. eom

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

2. I'd love to see somebody do a poll to find out who these people are

that are 'switching parties' between presidential elections and midterms. Almost no one I know drastically changes who they vote for from election to election. People who largely vote for Dems largely vote for Dems every election, and people who largely vote for Repubs largely vote for Repubs. And 'wobblers' remain 'wobblers'. Occasionally, someone evolves enough to switch from camp A to B or vice versa, but once they switch camps, they tend to stay there, they don't join the 'wobblers'.

And as we know, Dems won the total overall vote for the House in 2010. They lost seats based on gerrymandering to 'ghettoize' Dem voters. Which is why 'national' polls about D vs R are pointless in everything except presidential races. The only polls that matter for senator are state polls, the only polls that matter for representative are district polls. Because we don't get house seats based on national votes. If we did, we'd control the house.

[Capt. Obvious]

3. "Dems won the total overall vote for the House in 2010"

Dems lost 44,827,441 votes to 38,980,192 in 2010.

"Which is why 'national' polls about D vs R are pointless in everything except presidential races."

Not true. They are a good indicator of the Wave elections at the very least. They are a canary in the coal mine.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

4. Whoops, was I thinking about the wrong year?

I guess it must have been 2012 we won the overall house vote but lost the house?

I'll stand corrected on 2010.

[B2G]

6. They're called 'Independents' and

many of them aren't tied to a specific party.

Which is why they are targeted so heavily during campaigns.

[Bluenorthwest]

5. Also, these 'national tides' are not really so national. 2010, the year DU whines about

saw record setting turnout in Oregon and Democratic victory up and down the entire West Coast and on other places. Democrats won several elections against Republicans with far more money, with out of State secret donors and the works. All of these very positive tales of Democratic victory are ignored because they don't fit the narrative demanded by the 'moderate centrists' which is 'Democrats do not vote in midterms, Republicans have magical money and we are doomed to fail'.
It gets boring. If some States did poorly in 2010, they might look to the States that did very well in 2010 to find tips as to how to win. But what they do is claim 'The entire nation stayed home and elected Republicans'. That's not true. Never will be.