India elections: stunning exit poll results

[Recursion]

The final voting in India was today and the exit polls on the largest democratic election in human history are now being released. If these numbers hold up, this is quite a stunner: Modi's BJP is set to win nearly 290 seats in the Lok Sabha (roughly like our House -- that's like one party winning 109 seats in the House, but you have to imagine that a single party holding that much is nearly unheard-of; India does coalition governments).

I can't stress enough how strong BJP's results are here. The national party itself is largely center-right, but its original Gujarat party and the other local parties it's aligned with have had a tendency to go way way down into right-wing land. As an example, here in Mumbai (where BJP was utterly defeated electorally) the boss of the affiliated party (Shiv Sena, "Shiva's Army&quot held a press conference recently and without being asked simply reminded people that Shiv Sena does not renounce political violence. So there's that.

My driver (yes, I have a driver; I'm not doing left-handed stick shift in Mumbai any time soon) just bought a TV and asked me to help him carry it up to his apartment. I joked with him a little because he had said before that television distracts him from studying the Qur'an (he's a Hajji). He said it does, but a TV lets him know if there are communal riots so he'll know when to leave town. That's a world I never lived in...

Anyways. The results so far are a stunning repudiation of the Congress party that has more or less governed India since independence. Keep your eyes on the subcontinent for a bit; things might get interesting...

[Kber]

1. Interesting update - thanks

I just got back from a 2 week business trip to Mumbai and will be going again in June (and probably July). No joke about needing a driver. I regularly drive in NYC, but Mumbai is in it's own class.

Regarding the elections, everyne I work with studiously avoided the topic, but the tension was there. Modi has a dark history, so I hope everything will be ok.

As you say, it's a different world.

[Recursion]

2. Side note: give me a PM next time you're in town

Mumbai is my city...

[Kber]

3. Will do

Took a tour while I was there, which was really nice. So many times you travel for business and never really see where you are other than the airport, hotel and office, but I wasn't going to let the opportunity pass this time!

[Laelth]

4. I have Gujarati friends who are quite excited about Modiji.

Frankly, I don't share their enthusiasm, but I placate them. It's their country, after all, and I feel I have little right to object to their politics.

Modi's project is essentially neo-liberal, and the more I study the issue, the more I dislike the BJP and the center-right coalition. That said, Congress has been in power for too long, and a brief respite may be in order. That is my hope ... for a brief NDA coalition government, followed by the return of a stronger, less-corrupt, left-center, Congress-led coalition in 5 years. Rahul is a very weak candidate, ultimately. Besides which the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty has ruled for too long. Dynasties are not healthy for a republic.

I seriously doubt, however, that the BJP will get over 240 seats. The NDA, on the other hand, will cross 272. That much seems certain, but recent history shows that exit polls showing a BJP/NDA landslide are usually in error. I will be stunned if the BJP gets the 290 seats you predict.

We'll know more on Friday. Cheers!

-Laelth