What a load of crap:"The 2014 Election Is the Least Important in Years"

[n2doc]

By NATE SILVER

A Gallup poll released Monday found that just 35 percent of registered voters are more excited than usual about voting in November’s midterm elections. That’s well down from 2010 and somewhat down from most other midterm years when Gallup has asked this question. Midterm elections normally generate less voter enthusiasm than presidential years, so this isn’t all that high a bar to clear.

It would be easy to blame voters for their apathy, but perhaps they could use a breather. The past 14 years have featured a number of exceptionally exciting elections with control of the federal government at stake. This year, it probably isn’t.

It’s extremely unlikely Democrats will win back the U.S. House in November. The party that’s in the White House very rarely gains seats in midterm elections, and Democrats also face headwinds because there are far fewer swing districts than there used to be. It would take a very strong Democratic year for them to win back the House, and the political climate for Democrats appears to be somewhere between fair and middling (with some chance that could turn into an outright poor year for them).

Of course, President Obama will control the White House through 2016. So, there will be a Democratic president and, almost certainly, a Republican check on Obama’s power in the Congress. The Senate is very much in play. But a GOP-controlled Senate would be somewhat redundant. Republicans already exercise a “veto” on Obama’s power in the House and, with party-line voting and political polarization near their all-time highs, this suffices to make Obama a lame duck except on initiatives he can pass through the executive branch alone.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-2014-election-is-the-least-important-in-years/

Fuck off Nate. Every election is important, especially now, with the nut cases almost in charge of all of congress.

[Dawson Leery]

1. His side kick Harry Enten is bashing Democrats all the time.

He sees nothing good for Democrats, even in Pennsylvania.

[Swede Atlanta]

2. 2014 is an extremely important year to get to the polls....

Democrats are actually competitive in some unusual races this year.

Here in Georgia, Michelle Nunn is leading polls against every Republican contender for the Senate. Jason Carter, grand-son of Jimmy Carter, is running at least even with the expected Republican nominee, current governator Nathan Deal.

Grimes appears competitive in Kentucky against McTurtle, etc.

As well we need to do everything to keep the majority in the Senate even if it is just one vote. Why? Because I have no doubt that the first thing McTurtle will do is fire off the rest of the nuclear arsenal and eliminate the filibuster on legislation and Supreme Court nominees.

With control of the Senate and the House the pukes can ram through all manner of despicable legislation like repealing Obamacare. Luckily they will not have the 2/3 majority in both houses to override a presidential veto.

But they will turn the tides in the debate and say that the murkan sheeple spoke and decided to give them control of both houses. They are enacting legislation that is the will of the people. Obama will be portrayed as the obstructionist because he is vetoing everything that hits his desk.

As well they would make it more difficult for the president to get judicial and other appointees through the Senate. They would certainly never allow a supreme court nominee that is not right of Scalia get onto the court.

This is a very important election. Wake up people. Don't believe anything any pundit tells you.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

3. I think that's probably a fair assessment, and certainly the attempt at a refutation fails.

"Every election is important" - sure, but this says nothing whatsoever about relative importance.

It's certain that the Democrats will come out with the presidency, and vanishingly unlikely that they will take the Congress. So whoever controls the Senate, there will still be checks and balances on them.

Which year would you say was less important?

[n2doc]

5. They are all important

Saying that this one doesn't matter is only going to help the nut cases gain more power. They turn out and don't listen to those who say that 2014 "isn't important"


How does "Senate Majority Leader Ted Cruz" Sound to you?

[Donald Ian Rankin]

6. Once again, you're confusing a comparative with an absolute.

It's possible that by "they are all important" you mean "they are all equally important" - which would be relevant, but I think would be wrong. But I think you are trying to present "all elections are very important" as a refutation of "other elections were more important than this election", in which case your claim is true, but irrelevant.

How important or otherwise elections are is nothing whatsoever to do with whether one election is more or less important than another.

[n2doc]

7. No, I'm opposing a narrative that says "2014 isn't important"

If we want to speak of absolutes, I go 1860, then 1932, then 1980 and 1960. Everything else pales in comparison. But the article wants us to believe that this is the "least" important in years, simply because Nate has no real problem with the Repubs taking control of the Senate. He thinks it doesn't matter. How about this- If the Democrats take the House and get a 60 vote majority in the Senate, it becomes the most important election in years. Unlikely? I don't go for self- fulfilling prophecy bullshit.

[spanone]

4. there's nothing like horseshit like this to motivate democrats.

[DCBob]

8. Nate is a numbers guy and the numbers dont really spell out what potentially horrible things..

could come from Republicans holding control of both chambers.

[tritsofme]

9. If it wasn't for judicial nominations, especially on the Supreme Court, he might be right

A GOP takeover of the Senate would be devestating to the judiciary, they won't confirm a single nominee, any SCOTUS vacancy would sit unfilled until 2017.

Though I agree it will not mean much for the president's legislative agenda, as the House has already killed it. A small GOP majority would be as divided and dysfunctional as the House, and could even be mildly entertaining.

[Gothmog]

10. I am working to elect Wendy Davis and Leticia van de Putte

This is the first time in a while an election with competitive statewide candidates