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HuckleB

(35,773 posts)
Thu May 15, 2014, 03:41 PM May 2014

The Final Nail In The Coffin Of The Vaccine Causes Autism Myth

Well, another nail in the coffin that science has long ago shut, but true anti-vaccine believers will never acknowledge. Still...

http://www.skepticalraptor.com/skepticalraptorblog.php/final-nail-coffin-vaccine-autism-myth/

"But one more article, one more peer-reviewed paper has just been published that should slam the door shut on the vaccine-autism myth. But I am not naïve, I know that the antivaccination cultists will invent some logical fallacy to continue to lie about the tie between vaccines and autism. The research, published in the journal Vaccine, is a meta-analysis of five cohort studies involving 1,256,407 children, and five case-control studies involving 9920 children. As I’ve written before, meta-analyses form the basis, the deep foundation, of the scientific consensus, and they are the highest quality scientific evidence available. This study is like a gigantic clinical trial because it rolls up the highest quality data from those millions of subjects to develop solid conclusions.

So what did the authors find?

There was no relationship between vaccination and autism (OR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.06). This means that the odds that a person has autism and being vaccinated is equivalent to the odds that a person has autism and not being vaccinated.

There was no relationship between vaccination and ASD (OR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.68 to 1.20).

Similarly the case-control data found no evidence for increased risk of developing autism or ASD following MMR, Hg, or thimerosal exposure when grouped by condition (OR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83 to 0.98; p=0.02) or grouped by exposure type (OR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.76 to 0.95; p=0.01).

..."



29 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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The Final Nail In The Coffin Of The Vaccine Causes Autism Myth (Original Post) HuckleB May 2014 OP
I refuse to voice an opinion until Jenny McCarthy has weighed in. Orrex May 2014 #1
Along with Michelle Bachmann's concurring opinion. NuclearDem May 2014 #5
Yes, it's important to consult multiple experts. Orrex May 2014 #6
You can't go anywhere until Mayim Bialik also chimes in on the matter. HuckleB May 2014 #9
If she hasn't commented on it, then it can hardly be said to have happened at all. Orrex May 2014 #14
Who is Mayim Bialek? Archae May 2014 #24
And the Daily Fail. LeftishBrit May 2014 #10
"Radiation causes Autism!"... SidDithers May 2014 #19
Dumbass. Dr. Strange May 2014 #17
I'm going to kick your ass over at The Diversionist Orrex May 2014 #21
Come find me. Dr. Strange May 2014 #22
Dammit Orrex May 2014 #23
Facts be damned say the antivaxxers. hobbit709 May 2014 #2
Sorry, no such thing as final nail in coffin with those idiots. HERVEPA May 2014 #3
True. And the author acknowledges that. HuckleB May 2014 #25
You can change an opinion but not a belief Warpy May 2014 #4
The confidence intervels are nice, but I wish the p values were smaller. ZombieHorde May 2014 #7
Data can be bizarre with meta-analyses. HuckleB May 2014 #8
Misleading title. Go to the source article. They studied MMR. McCamy Taylor May 2014 #11
Highly accurate title. HuckleB May 2014 #13
What a shame. Aristus May 2014 #12
Vaccines and autism: Same as it ever was HuckleB May 2014 #15
Just a kick to point out that vaccines don't cause autism. HuckleB May 2014 #16
But, but... rexcat May 2014 #18
DU Rec...nt SidDithers May 2014 #20
One small technicality... DanTex May 2014 #26
That's why the term "like" is used. HuckleB May 2014 #27
Maybe, but I don't think it's actually "like" a giant clinical trial. DanTex May 2014 #28
That's not easily done with vaccines. HuckleB May 2014 #29

Dr. Strange

(25,917 posts)
17. Dumbass.
Thu May 15, 2014, 10:27 PM
May 2014

Jenny McCarthy is not a doctor and has no formal medical training. If you want a meaningful opinion on autism and vaccines, you should consult a legitimate source, like ageofautism or autismspeaks.

The more you know...

Orrex

(63,185 posts)
23. Dammit
Thu May 15, 2014, 11:19 PM
May 2014

I took OrrexIsADoofusWhoCantAppreciateGoodLiteratureLikeTheDuneSeries1 through 14.

Should've kept going.

Warpy

(111,222 posts)
4. You can change an opinion but not a belief
Thu May 15, 2014, 03:57 PM
May 2014

and I've found antivax believers to be as rock headed as religious fundies and objectivists.

It's just a shame that so many research dollars are being wasted on this stuff.

The local public health laws need to be strengthened and kids who aren't excluded by medical conditions need to be vaccinated unless they're being home schooled or in church funded schools like the Amish.

ZombieHorde

(29,047 posts)
7. The confidence intervels are nice, but I wish the p values were smaller.
Thu May 15, 2014, 04:27 PM
May 2014

p < 0.001 would be profound evidence. p < 0.01 is pretty strong evidence. Generally speaking, p values between 0.01 and 0.05 are considered moderate evidence.

Don't get me wrong. I'm completely pro vaccines. The p values will probably decrease as the sample size increases over time.

HuckleB

(35,773 posts)
8. Data can be bizarre with meta-analyses.
Thu May 15, 2014, 05:32 PM
May 2014

Which is often why p values aren't what they would be for a lab experiment.

rexcat

(3,622 posts)
18. But, but...
Thu May 15, 2014, 10:46 PM
May 2014

they are produced by big evil pharmaceutical companies only out to make profit and not to cure anything.

I had to add that. I work in the pharmaceutical industry in phase II - IV clinical trials. Currently working on an improved HPV vaccine; a actual cure for Hepatitis C (one was just approved but the pricing seems high) and the first drug with the potential to significantly slow the progression of Alzheimer's Disease among other therapies. And I will state here that I would not trust the pharmaceutical companies as far as I could throw them and want to see the revolving door between the FDA and the industry permanently locked but good luck with that one.

I worked as a clinical microbiologist in the pediatric setting before the advent of the vaccines and saw a lot of kids severely injured or die from what is now preventable diseases because of the advent of good vaccines.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
26. One small technicality...
Fri May 16, 2014, 09:54 AM
May 2014
This study is like a gigantic clinical trial because it rolls up the highest quality data from those millions of subjects to develop solid conclusions.

The term "clinical trial" typical refers to a prospective interventional study -- that's where you split the participants into groups and give them different treatments and see how the treatments affect outcomes. To my knowledge, there haven't been any clinical trials regarding vaccines and autism -- in fact, that would be unethical, because it would mean intentionally not vaccinating some kids in order to figure out if they get autism more or less than the vaccinated kids. So this meta-analysis is actually more like a gigantic observational study than a gigantic clinical trial.

Not that it really matters... even before this meta-analysis, it was completely clear there is no evidence linking vaccines to autism.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
28. Maybe, but I don't think it's actually "like" a giant clinical trial.
Fri May 16, 2014, 10:17 AM
May 2014

Interventions are a pretty important part of a clinical trial. What it's "like" is a giant observational study. It wouldn't have been that hard to use the correct term here.

HuckleB

(35,773 posts)
29. That's not easily done with vaccines.
Sat May 17, 2014, 10:16 AM
May 2014

In fact, it would be unethical. That's the point. Nevermind that a meta-analysis is a different breed. Nitpicking the terms changes nothing.

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