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Sun May 18, 2014, 04:04 AM

RIP Social Conservatism: Why It's Dying - and the Coming Realignment

Does this mean the end of the current Democratic Party coalition?

http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/277-75/23718-rip-social-conservatism-why-its-dying-and-the-coming-realignment

If social liberal attitudes become nearly universal, then today’s conservatism and today’s populism vanish or become marginalized. A four-fold division of the American electorate would be replaced by a simpler binary opposition. In an America which, a generation or two hence, practically everyone is a social liberal, there would be two socially liberal factions that disagree chiefly about economics, even as they share current liberal positions on abortion, gay rights and censorship.

This realignment of attitudes will not happen by 2020, perhaps not even by 2030. But it has already occurred in Britain and most of Europe, where the local conservatives are social liberals, by American standards. By the mid-21st century, a similar situation is likely to obtain on this side of the Atlantic.

One of the consequences I predict is the crack-up of today’s Democratic coalition — paradoxically, as a direct consequence of the decline of social conservatism.

At the moment the Democrats are a tenuous coalition of economic progressives and “neoliberals” or moderate economic conservatives. In their policy views many of the neoliberals, including arguably Barack Obama and the Clintons, are what used to be called “Rockefeller Republicans.” Many neoliberals favor smaller government, free trade, deregulation and lower taxes and side with the Democrats chiefly because of the religiosity and social conservatism of today’s Republicans.

If the threat of religious fundamentalism and social conservatism declines, there is really no reason for the allies of neoliberals like Robert Rubin and the allies of economic progressives like Elizabeth Warren to remain in the same party. This is why, in “The Coming Realignment,” I predict that the two wings of today’s Democrats may evolve into the nuclei of the two national parties of tomorrow, once social conservatism goes the way of segregationism and agrarianism.

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Response to eridani (Original post)

Sun May 18, 2014, 05:42 AM

1. I don't think social conservatism will ever actually die, unfortunately.

There will always be some issue to galvanize the type of people who are socially conservative. A lot of younger people won't necessarily go backwards on issues as they get older, but they'll certainly get stuck in their ways. So in 50 years when we're still pointing out the injustices (racism, homophobia, the usual) that remain, there will be a decent proportion who claim such problems don't exist while subtly promoting ridiculous thoughts on the state of the oppressed.

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Response to eridani (Original post)

Sun May 18, 2014, 06:02 AM

2. ONE up side could be that the neoliberals will go back to the Republican Party, where they BELONG

 

Last edited Sun May 18, 2014, 06:52 AM - Edit history (1)

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Response to Exposethefrauds (Reply #2)

Sun May 18, 2014, 04:22 PM

5. ...you're celebrating the prospect of more people voting Republican?

I think you should probably rethink that.

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Response to eridani (Original post)

Sun May 18, 2014, 06:51 AM

3. There really aren't that many neoliberals... they just have outsize influence because of their $$$


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Response to eridani (Original post)

Sun May 18, 2014, 02:31 PM

4. Hopefully religion's influence will wither...

 

One can dream...

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Response to eridani (Original post)

Sun May 18, 2014, 04:49 PM

6. I find this to be a highly suspect analysis.

Mostly because the UK, and most of Europe, are socially liberal because they are not very religious. The USA, on the other hand? Is the most religious country in the developed world. Various polls and surveys indicate that around 40% of Americans attend church regularly. In the UK? That's about 5%. 904% of Americans believe in god; in the UK? That's about 50%, or less (and as low as 38%, depending on the poll). The US is becoming less religious, but it has a way to go to catch up to Europe.

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Response to Spider Jerusalem (Reply #6)

Mon May 19, 2014, 01:08 AM

7. Millenials are dramatically less religious than previous generations

http://publicreligion.org/research/graphic-of-the-week/american-the-diverse/

Black Protestants, Jew, Mormons and other have stayed pretty constant over generations. White Catholics and both mainline and evangelical Protestants have suffered huge losses, as unaffiliation has increased to 31% of Millennials. Does anyone see this trend reversing itself?



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