Economic Recovery Yields Few Benefits for the Voters Democrats Rely On
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/20/us/politics/economic-recovery-is-leaving-major-democratic-constituencies-behind.html?hp&_r=1
WASHINGTON — Signs that a long-awaited economic recovery may finally be gaining steam should be welcome news for President Obama and his party as they try to stem losses in this year’s midterm elections. But rising payrolls, lower unemployment and a buoyed stock market, while lifting the fortunes of the rich, are leaving behind major Democratic constituencies, including young women and blacks, just as the party tries to motivate them to turn out to vote in November.
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Though broad measures of the economy are showing signs of improvement, a closer look at important indicators among individual groups reveals that voting blocs critical to Democrats in recent elections are not yet feeling the benefits. Consider women, whose unemployment rate stood at 8.1 percent, up almost two percentage points from when Mr. Obama took office, as they weighed whether to vote in the midterms of 2010. Today, it is 5.7 percent, a seemingly shining number for Democrats desperate to widen the gender gap.
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But while the number of women out of work appears to be much improved, the number of women employed compared with the total female population is 55.2 percent, actually worse than it was in October 2010. Progress, in fact, is a mirage, the product of what economists call the disappearing work force: people giving up and dropping out.
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Midterm elections tend to be fueled more by mood than by policy, and five years after the recession’s official end, core Democratic constituents might be forgiven for their sour mood or disenchantment with the president. Voters with family incomes below $30,000 backed Mr. Obama against Mitt Romney 63 percent to 35 percent in 2012, according to exit polls conducted by Edison Research. According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted in late April, 46 percent of such voters said they would vote for a Democrat running for Congress, versus 43 percent who would vote Republican. Women between the ages of 18 and 49 would back a Democrat over a Republican for Congress 48 percent to 42 percent, much narrower than the gap of 59 percent to 39 percent that Mr. Obama enjoyed.
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