Russia Sanctions Threat Seen Abating Amid Recession Risk
Russia is less likely to face further sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union as the government is sending conciliatory signals toward Ukraine, a Bloomberg survey of economists showed.
The U.S. will refrain from escalating punitive measures, according to 66 percent of respondents in a survey of 32 economists, compared with 28 percent last month. The EU will hold off on sanctions according to 84 percent, up from 78 percent in April. The probability of the Russian economy slipping into recession in the next 12 months remained at 50 percent, according to the median forecast in a separate survey.
The world’s largest energy exporter is struggling to ignite growth in its $2 trillion economy after Putin’s annexation of Crimea in March prompted the U.S. and the EU to target 98 people and 20 companies with travel bans and asset freezes. Russia since has started moving its troops back from the Ukrainian border and said it would respect the outcome of its neighbor’s May 25 presidential election.
“As Russia softened its rhetoric against Ukraine and it gave an impression of acceptance for Ukrainian elections we do not think U.S. and the EU will implement any further sanctions,” Michal Burek, an economist at Raiffeisen Polbank in Warsaw, said in e-mailed comments.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-05-29/russia-sanctions-threat-seen-abating-as-recession-risk-remains