It's likely Willard's $ will win him the Nom, but it will split the Repub Party...

[Blackhatjack]

I have been thinking about this for a while. Willard's $ bought a superior ground organization and sufficient negative advertising to bring down each of his fellow Repub competitors who showed any life in the race.

The Repub Party remains chained to the Tea Party extremists, and they are not going to embrace Romney as the Repub Nominee since he is not 'conservative' enough to satisfy their standards.

IF you have any doubts about the right wing conservative Tea Party's influence over the Repub Party just look at the disfunctional US House -- Speaker Boehner can't get the highway bill or other legislation through the House without relying heavily on Democratic crossover votes. The Tea Partiers are definitely calling the tunes in the House.

Once the nomination is Romney's I believe the Repub Party is going to split further rather than unite. Romney and everyone else with any knowledge of how the General Election campaign must be run to win KNOWS that Romney will have to pivot to the center to reach the independents and moderates. This is going to drive the Tea Party segment of the Repub Party absolutely loco.

Sure the MSM is going to predict a close race and do all they can to frame the expected outcome that way.

But in the end, I don't think Romney's present strategy will win --and neither does Karl Rove and company. He does not have the ability to pull off the sleight of hand, and he has made a lot of influential enemies within the Repub Party.

[Skittles]

1. if their dittomasters ultimately unite behind Rmoney

so will they

[shimonitanegi]

2. It all depends on Santorum

If Santorum stays in the race all the way to the convention, then I think your prediction will come true. It is a highly unlikely scenario, though.

[RickFromMN]

3. Many Social Conservatives will hold their nose and vote for Romney because they don't like Obama.

I do, however, believe the Social Conservatives will lack enthusiasm.

I suspect Republican voter turnout will be lower than expected in the general election.

I hope lower Republican voter turnout will affect not only the Presidential Race,
but Congressional and State races.

It sounds ironic, to me, to be wishing the Republicans have a low voter turnout.

If Republican voter turnout is low, it's because the Republicans reap what they sow.

One may argue Romney will have no choice but to pick a Social Conservative as his
Vice-Presidential running mate.

If Romney picks a Social Conservative,
Romney will have more trouble winning Independent voters.

I am a little fearful of the size of the Republican SuperPAC coffers.
Such large amounts of money can pay for a lot of negative attack advertising.

I expect the General Election to be very negative and very dirty and very ugly.

[HereSince1628]

4. And in doing so, will it draw the Dems further to the right?

The disaffected r's aren't going to be progressive, but 'Our PARTY' will see them as critical to achieving power, and can we expect the message of the Party to be bent rightward to attract them?

I'm not looking forward to whatever name gets put on the rightward chumming that goes out beyond the Third Way.

[Bohunk68]

5. .Never underestimate Republican solidarity

I was one of them when I first started to vote in Ohio in 1964. You got your Republican party card along with your birth certificate. But, I changed parties when I realised the bankruptcy of the thugs. One thing about them is that they will always vote and it will be for whomever has the party label. Because, as we used to hear, Hey, if we vote in every election, the Democrats may not show up to vote and we win. That's what happened in 2010, let we forget. They will vote for Rmoney because he is their candidate whether they like his Mormonism or not. And many of them admire those Mormon principles of taking care of one another. Don't count those chickens until November 7th.

[KharmaTrain]

6. Willard's Strange Dynamic...

He's only won a handful of red states...picking up most of his delegates in what will surely be blue/Obama states in November. His "etch-a-sketch" to the far right has alienated women, Hispanics, blacks and other groups that if he tries to "moderate" towards he'll be nailed as pandering and weak. He's painted himself into a corner that he thinks he can buy his way out of. We shall see.

Mittens big problem is the people he's alienated fit into that 10-15% middle that can swing an election. While I suspect a large percentage of the rushpublican base will hold their nose and vote for him cause they hate the "coloured fella", but there could be 5-10% who either stay home or vote third party...just enough (especially in "swing" states)

While President Obama is a vulnerable candidate...and Democrats should keep that in mind...he's facing a weak opponent who continues to underperform. While I caution being too confident, I see states in play this year that weren't in 2004...Arizona (for one), Missouri and Indiana (yes, especially if Lugar is on the ticket) where a small enough drop off of rushpublican votes could turn those states from red to blue.

Stay tuned...

[GOTV]

7. It will split into those who vote Romney and like him vs those who vote Romney and don't like him

... how does that help us?