I Guess I Have My Tinfoil Hat Screwed On Tight Tonight Because......

[global1]

I've been doing too much thinking today. Given all the obstruction of the Repub Party over the last 6 years and with them shutting down the government and basically being on the wrong side of just about every issue - including women's rights, jobs, unions, immigration, gays,want to end ACA, privatize schools, jails, impeach the president, etc. ---- yet we are still hearing from the mainstream media that the Repubs will maintain the House and have a good chance of taking the Senate.

What???? Have the American People lost their minds? I just can't and don't believe it. Given all this wrong sidedness of the Repub Party and the obstruction and them decimating the middle class and burying the poor, the elderly and students - how can this be true. The Repubs have basically alienated every major voting block - yet they still can win the House and take the Senate?

Do you really believe this? Even with all the gerrymandering that is said to secure them - they have to have alienated many of their loyal constituents too - that want a change - to get this country back on track.

So I've come to the following theories:

Theory 1: We're being lied to by the MSM and the Repubs are going to lose bigger than they ever have and the Dems will take the House and increase their majority in the Senate.

Theory 2: The American People are really racist and they just want the Black Man in the White House to fail.

Theory 3: The MSM is right and the American People are just really, really stupid and will shoot themselves in the feet.

Theory 4: The Election is fixed and Citizens United (CU) is just the cover story to steal the Republic from the American People. The Dems are in on it. We can blame it on SCOTUS and all the money going in to these elections - but bottom line they were fixed - and the money from CU is just a good way to place the blame on something.

Those are my theories. I don't know which one is right. I'm curious if others here on DU have other theories - I'd like to hear them.

Right now I'd like to really believe my Theory 1.

[MohRokTah]

1. .

[d_r]

2. unfortunately

I fear it is #3

Well I guess they all are unfortunate, but you know what I mean.

[BlueJazz]

3. This person feels Theory 1, 2, 3, 4 could all easily be true.

[fredamae]

4. It all boils down

to whether or not pissed off Dems turn out, imo.

[Louisiana1976]

9. True.

[djean111]

5. People who have voted GOP all of their lives are no more likely to vote Dem than I am to

vote GOP. Yeah, a good dose of stupid, but also a good dose of not really paying attention. And habit.

Got an email from a Green party candidate for local school board.
Curious about his platform.
BIG on charter schools and not raising taxes to pay for additional classes on technical studies.
Seems more Libertarian to me, somehow.
So, no vote. Will vote for the Democrat.
Cannot vote for GOP.
And so it goes.

[Codeine]

6. Mostly theory 3 with a healthy chunk of 2. nt

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

22. Yep. I'm with you on that.

My guiding principle is "Never ascribe to Evil what could properly be ascribed to Stupid."

[Tikki]

7. Single (or a few) issue voters....

They still exist strong and have the constant yapping of institutionalized rhetoric for most of their flimsy issues.

Some of those people's folks talk just like them, to them...and that's enough.



Tikki

[tblue37]

8. The narrative needs to be in place before they can

steal the election by way of unverifiable electronic voting machines. If the MSM didn't make people believe that it is not only possible but virtually inevitable for the Republicans to keep the House and take the Senate, then everyone would be up in arms over such an election result--and the voting machines' packability would be obvious.

But by emphasizing the factors that supposedly make a Republican victory inevitable, the powers that be massage expect ions and set up a narrative that makes the stolen results seem quite normal. These are some of the factors being hyped in the MSM:

(1) the claim that gerrymandering makes many Repub seats impossible for any Dem to win
(2) presenting midterms as an inevitably lost cause for the party that has the presidency
(3) hyping polls that suggest Obama's popularity is at an all-time low
(4) constantly repeating the false narrative (i.e., that Repubs will take the Senate and retain the House)

[Louisiana1976]

12. Exactly. It's not only Faux Noise that's behind this narrative--it's the so-called "liberal"

media that's setting up the narrative.

[freshwest]

25. Didn't work in 2012. The shock at Faux was gratifying. All the 'invisible' people voted.

Yes, we came from behind the shed, out of the kitchen, and kicked their ass!

But #3 may still occur, if people pull another 2010.

This is a particularly dangerous time!

[LWolf]

10. Okay.

Your theories:

#1 We're always being lied to by the MSM. It doesn't necessarily follow that there will be an overall R loss or D gain.

#2 Yes, many American people are really racist, and they just want the Black Man to fail. Of course, there are plenty of non-racist reasons to want some of his policies to fail. That won't stop me from voting my Democratic Senator back into office this November.

#3 Too many American people are really, really clueless.

#4 The election is always rigged in favor of TPTB. You can throw race, gender, religion, and other hot-button factors in to whip the masses into a frenzy, but in the end, the person elected, regardless of those hot-buttons, will be corporate owned.

fyi: The Democrats do not have clean hands on many of those things that you are accusing Republicans of decimating. Democrats have, at the least, offered Republicans a helping hand, and, at the worst, led the charge. THAT is why Democrats may be in trouble this fall. They aren't going to get Republican votes, and they've driven many natural allies away.

[babylonsister]

11. #3: Not necessarily stupid; apathy does apply and

I've seen plenty of it. People have busy lives, they've never been exposed to politics or how government works, and they just don't care, don't understand how so many decisions impact their lives. Ignorance through apathy?

[Louisiana1976]

13. And they don't even care about apathy being a problem.

[RKP5637]

14. I don't trust the election process and MSM is just a propaganda machine. And, many

Americans are stupider than a bag of rocks! Given those conditions, I have no idea WTF is going to happen.

[truebluegreen]

15. If I had to pick just one, I'd go with #4. nt

[Politicalboi]

16. If they make everyone think the GOP will win

Then if they steal it, NOBODY will be suspicious. We've been hearing this for months. The Dem's have no chance, so we may as well give up now. I believe we should make this election about Obama and the inevitable impeachment that is awaiting if they do win. Also medical Marijuana and legal MJ could bring more Dem's to the polls. I can't believe we can lose with all the shit the GOP has pulled.

[lunasun]

17. 2 +3 = my vote on this

[Ruby the Liberal]

18. Imma go with option #3

"Throw all the bums out" is the rally cry, and then the low information voters reelect their particular tree stump (occupying a DC seat for 20+ years) because the guy smiled at them and shook their hand once 13 years ago during a photo op at the local breakfast diner.

[Scuba]

19. The game is rigged ....

The media is owned by the same power brokers who own most of the politicians. There's no way an independent media would give the Republicans any credibility, yet they get gobs of it all the time.

The people running the Democratic Party are often (largely?) neocons pretending to be Democrats. The Democratic Party now offers the same military / oil / corporate friendly platforms that the Republicans did a generation ago. This is helped to look "leftish" because the Republicans are bat shit crazy. Every once in a while they throw us a social justice bone to keep us happy.

Gerrymandering, voter suppression and outright election rigging ensure that their bought-and-paid-for political shills are the only ones who have any chance of getting elected. People like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the exception that proves the rule. The whole Democratic Party would be like them if it wasn't owned by the neocons.

Most of the public has been purposely soured on politics - the negativity is designed to turn people off - so they don't engage. Hell, half of them don't even vote. A big chunk of those who do have been fooled by the media into believing Iraq was responsible for 911, big oil needs subsidies to keep gas prices low and taxation is robbery at gunpoint.

Some kind of revolution will be necessary to effect change, and is inevitable that one will eventually occur. I only hope we can change this without blood running in the streets, and that the change is for the better.

[2naSalit]

26. ^^THIS^^

without a doubt.

[Savannahmann]

20. Partly it's point of view.

Everyone dreams of being rich. Moreover, everyone dreams of their children or grandchildren being successful. Baseball stars, inventors, computer software. The possibilities appear endless. There are thousands of examples. Facebook, eBay, Darek Jeeter, Bill Gates. Self publishing is making best selling authors out of nobodies. J. K. Rowling went from welfare to billionaire with Harry Potter.

So the idea of punishing those like Gates and Rowling doesn't sit well with people who dream of being the next meteoric star. Look how many girls become cheerleaders in the hopes of catching a rising sports star. People want BMW autos. And they know that success is the way to get it.

Reality has not entered this dream. People play the lottery dreaming of being wealthy. Their dreams are not changing, if they don't get it, their children might, or grand children.

So look at the Government. Ineptitude, insufferable egos, asinine individuals. Practiced liars and astonishing fools. Everybody knows the Government lies, from unemployment numbers to lame explanations of accidents. Innocent men and women are exonerated by DNA evidence years after convictions, in both State and Federal cases. People convicted by liars of Federal Agents, Local Cops, DA's and US Attorneys.

So the people hear the words. They hear the Repugs argue that they are fighting the Job Killing minimum wage hike. The GAO comes out and says that an estimated half million jobs will be lost. Democrats say that they don't believe those numbers. So people struggling to survive look at this and decide that as bad as things are, they have a job.

So what are we saying? Well our Democratic strategy seems to be that yes we suck. But we don't suck as bad as they do.

Look at the Appeals court decision. I'm astonished that someone hasn't done this yet. Play the video of Speaker Pelosi saying we have to pass is to find out what's in it. Then announce the decision. By this time tomorrow half the news agencies will be doing that.

We treat the voters with disdain, we don't give them something to vote for. We would rather eat a raw turd than present a plan on anything. We are in favor of winning, we are against the other guys winning. We have become little more than rabid fans cheering our team, they're the ones in blue, over the other team. They're the ones in red. President Obama should have been submitting plans to Congress on education, poverty, unemployment, and every other issue. I know that Rethugs would say no. But get the discussion going on the issues instead of which team will in the next election game. I mean actual legislation, four hundred pages of proposals on education reform.

Instead all we want is to talk about how awful Rethugs are. Well the average voter doesn't care. Deng said it doesn't matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice. Most people don't care of it is republican or democrat so long as someone talks about their concerns. If they propose action on those concerns so much the better.

Most people just want the mice caught. We aren't doing it. We aren't engaging the Rethugs on a debate on the issues. We aren't proposing bold action. We are hustleing for donations so we can beat the red team and bring the blue team to victory. We shout that Rethugs are racist and we shout that the Rethugs are greedy. We blame the Rethugs for the weather. We blame them and they blame us. We want to think they are stupid because then we don't have to defeat them in debates.

So now using our prejudice against them we can't imagine how they are going to win. Well they oppose the job killing daylight savings time. That resonates with the voters, the actual voters. Because the voters know the economy isn't going swimmingly.

[jeff47]

21. Theory 5: Democrats don't show up to vote.

http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/turnout-problems-by-davidoatkins.html
(Summary: Democratic turnout in the 2014 primaries was worse than the 2010 primaries)

Republicans do well in midterms because they show up every. single. election. When their elected representatives don't do what they want, they show up and vote. And they drag other people with them.

Democrats? Large swaths don't show up at the polls. Then we complain about crappy elected Democrats and start talking about refusing to vote, or voting third party.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

23. One-half of all voters are of below average intelligence

Tells you everything you need to know about democracy. Here or anywhere else.

When you have an informed an independent press, you can negate some of that problem. But when you have whole media empire dedicated to spreading lies, we totally screwed.

[CK_John]

24. None of the above. The GOP knows process, and what buttons to push.

Our genes hate change. Good or bad change.

Also voting is a survival technique, who or what the vote is about has no meaning to 90% of the voters. It's just a show for the tribe that I'm a valued member of the tribe and I won't do you harm while you sleep.

The more tense the election the more the tribe will support the current office holder.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

27. Theory 5. Lackluster performance on issues that the 99% care about

(economics for the 99%, jobs) leaves voters apathetic about voting for Dems.

If you fire up the base, they will come. The Republicans know this, and know that midterms are base elections. That's why they spent all this time on what seem like stupid votes to 'repeal Obamacare' and blathering about Benghazi. Yes, Dems will point out the stupidity, but it fires up the Republican nutcase base, and doesn't fire up the Dem base. So Repubs will get more midterm turnout.

Dems in the Senate should have spent the last year voting for jobs bill after jobs bill, and plunking themselves down in front of the cameras playing the same game, complaining constantly about House Republicans blocking every possible attempt to get money flowing to the 99% again.

Optics matter more in midterms, and Dems suck at playing up the optics.

[Squinch]

28. I think it's a little bit of all of them. Good list.

[yeoman6987]

29. I believe it

The country is split pretty much down the middle. Has been for quite a while now.

[kelliekat44]

30. Is it ridiculous to believe that the at least 2/3 of the 8 M on Obamacare will show up at the polls

to oust those threatening to take away their healthcare insurance?

[davidpdx]

33. Good point

While the media touted 2010 and 2012 as "mandates on Obamacare" the problem is that the program had not even started then. This is going to be the first indication of the popularity of the healthcare insurance program.

[WhiteTara]

31. People are basically lazy and if a

good enough excuse comes along for them (us) to do nothing, we use it. So, constant negative drum beating, dems will lose, dems will lose, people lose heart and mid term elections are traditionally very light in terms of voting. Repubs usually vote more frequently than democrats, so if we use add a and b, pukes win. If dems get energized, all that goes out the window and we will win. GOTV. Carry registration cards around with you. Get active and join your local democratic central committee or club or both.

[davidpdx]

32. My take on your theories is:

#1 Not true
#2 Only partially true, I think half are really racist and want Obama to fail
#3 2004 proved this one correct
#4 Only partially true, in certain states I think the probability is high. In other states I think it will have little or no effect.

It certainly would be worth coming back to these after the election to see how each faired.

[RobertEarl]

34. #4

It doesn't matter who votes, it only matters who counts the votes.

Most votes are counted by privately owned computers, using private, secret software.

You think they count the votes correctly? Look at the 2000 election in Florida. Those votes were not counted correctly. Gore won.

The republicans in office after 2000 then put in place, via the Help America Vote Act, a new type of voting machine across the country and funded those machines with close to 4 Billion dollars of federal funds. THEY BOUGHT THE VOTING MACHINES.

Those are real simple facts. There can be no denial of these facts. Any denial of these facts will come only from idiots.

They own the voting machines, and the only way to overcome that fact, this late in the game, is to have massive turnouts of smart people voting.

[jimlup]

35. Unfortunately, and perhaps being a tiny bit older...

I'm pretty sure that the truth is a variant of Theory 3. Very few people think about politics on a day to day basis. As a result, they are easily influenced by money sponsored propaganda. Republicans have a lot of money behind their propaganda campaign. The American people are not "stupid" but they are in a way "ignorant". They just don't have mental tools to withstand the relentless propaganda campaign from the right. (Actually, they do - which is why there is any balance at all. The problem is every mid term they lash out without really understanding who or what they are mad at.)

For these reasons we need to:

1. Keep getting the message out.

2. Work to get out the vote.

3. Vote and make sure your family and friends vote too.