There is No Wave

[babylonsister]

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2014/7/28/16249/2252

There is No Wave

by BooMan
Mon Jul 28th, 2014 at 04:24:09 PM EST


I keep pointing this out, as Nate Cohn observes:

One of the big questions of this election cycle is whether it will turn out to be a “wave” election, like the one in 2010, when an upswell of anti-Democratic sentiment carried Democrats out of the House. One of the best measures of whether there’s a wave is the “generic ballot” question. Pollsters ask: Do you want Democrats or Republicans to control Congress?

Unfortunately, generic ballot polling has been sparse so far this cycle. Last week, however, there were three national polls, by Fox News, CNN and Pew Research, asking the generic ballot question. None showed an anti-Democrat wave, like the one that brought Republicans back to power in 2010. In fact, none of the three polls showed Republicans with a lead among registered voters at all.

snip//

You can look at GDP and the president's popularity and the unemployment rate, but the most important early indicators are still polls. And the polls are simply refusing to show a Republican wave victory. It very much looks like more people are going to vote for Democrats in November than Republicans and that the country as a whole would prefer for the Democrats to gain seats, not lose them.

Of course, that happened in 2012, too, and the Democrats didn't win back the House. I am not predicting a positive election for the Democrats. But I see no disaster on the horizon.

[upaloopa]

1. I think the media needs the story line of disaster

looming for Dems to sell news. A bland election just doesn't sell and disaster for Repubs doesn't get as much attention because "it could happen" thus not news worthy.

[lpbk2713]

2. Expect an October surprise.

You can count on it. They probably have the plans all drawn up at this moment.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

3. I wish it were that simple.

But national polls don't really mean as much as simply focusing on the half dozen or dozen races that might be important to the Senate.

I don't think we'll actually lose seats in the House, but I also don't think we'll win nearly enough to flip it, so the Senate is where we have to hold the line.

[JEFF9K]

4. I'm not seeing many bumper stickers reading ...

... "Dont blame me, I voted for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan."