How the Fk is this even possible???!!!

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

Last edited Tue Jul 29, 2014, 07:48 AM - Edit history (1)

With all the fking fked up sh*t the GOPers have done recently the American public is going to put them in charge or the Senate now, too!?? Not that this is the first I'd heard of it, but I was thinking it was some crazy fluke, and the polls would go the other way. But no, the people are going to hand the "Shut 'er down!" crew the government reins. WTF??!!

With the addition of the YouGov estimates to our model, the overall outlook for the Senate remains roughly the same. The Republicans appear to have a slight advantage, with the most likely outcome being a Republican gain of six seats, the minimum they need to finish with a 51-to-49-seat majority. But we, like many other forecasters, would not be surprised by a gain of anywhere from four to eight seats.

Summing up the possible outcomes, our model gives the Republicans a 60 percent chance of taking control, up from 54 percent on April 1.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/28/upshot/republicans-senate-chances-rise-slightly-to-60-percent-.html?ref=politics&_r=1

Sorry I can't be more articulate. I should have gone to sleep hours ago. Just had to check my email one last time, and so I read this excruciatingly depressing news.

[pangaia]

1. Ignorance, stupidity, republican lies, gerrymandering and

no-sense blathering new-less entertainment shows.

Oh, and terrible, really, really terrible Democratic messaging.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

2. Oh, yeah...right.

I knew that. Damn.

[HereSince1628]

3. ?Senate seats are gerrymandered? Or does gerrymandering

somehow effect turnout, by giving voters a sense of successful representation by ignorant, stupid, republican liars?

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

5. The Great Gerrymander of 2012 By SAM WANG

HAVING the first modern democracy comes with bugs. Normally we would expect more seats in Congress to go to the political party that receives more votes, but the last election confounded expectations. Democrats received 1.4 million more votes for the House of Representatives, yet Republicans won control of the House by a 234 to 201 margin. This is only the second such reversal since World War II.

Using statistical tools that are common in fields like my own, neuroscience, I have found strong evidence that this historic aberration arises from partisan disenfranchisement. Although gerrymandering is usually thought of as a bipartisan offense, the rather asymmetrical results may surprise you.

Through artful drawing of district boundaries, it is possible to put large groups of voters on the losing side of every election. The Republican State Leadership Committee, a Washington-based political group dedicated to electing state officeholders, recently issued a progress report on Redmap, its multiyear plan to influence redistricting. The $30 million strategy consists of two steps for tilting the playing field: take over state legislatures before the decennial Census, then redraw state and Congressional districts to lock in partisan advantages. The plan was highly successful.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/03/opinion/sunday/the-great-gerrymander-of-2012.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

On edit: Oh, right. The Senate. But still. There's probably some inconspicuous way it helps them.

[HereSince1628]

8. But, the senate, the senate??????????

I know what gerrymandering is but it is associated with the House of Representatives who emerge out of gerrymander-able districts.

Aren't all senators now directly elected by state-wide votes? I'm not aware of any state still appointing senators via their legislatures which might be populated by persons from gerrymander-able districts.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

9. Right you are. You missed my edit.

[Punkingal]

4. You left out the media....

Reporting GOP lies as if they are truth. That's the biggest problem we have.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

7. But of course. It's all coming back to me now.

I was hoping I had gone to bed already and this was just some atrocious little nightmare. Bummer.

[woo me with science]

6. Not just terrible messaging. An ugly parade of vicious betrayals...ongoing.

Perhaps the corporate-purchased parties themselves have something to do with this conclusion by the American people:

Poll: Half of Americans dont care which party controls Congress
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024988821#post12

Mass spying on Americans? Both parties support it.
Handing the internet to corporations? Both parties support it.
Austerity for the masses? Both parties support it.
Cutting social safety nets? Both parties support it.
Corporatists in the cabinet? Both parties support it.
Tolling our interstate highways? Both parties support it.
Corporate education policy? Both parties support it.
Bank bailouts? Both parties support it.
Ignoring the trillions stashed overseas? Both parties support it.
Trans-Pacific Job/Wage Killing Secret Agreement? Both parties support it.
Drilling and fracking? Both parties support it.
Wars on medical marijuana instead of corrupt banks?
Deregulation of the food industry? Both parties support it.
GMO's? Both parties support it.
Militarized police and assaults on protesters? Both parties support it.
Indefinite detention? Both parties support it.
Drone wars and kill lists? Both parties support it.
Targeting of journalists and whistleblowers? Both parties support it.
Private prisons replacing public prisons? Both parties support it.
Unions? Both parties view them with contempt.

The record shows aggressive, proactive pursuit of a corporate agenda.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=3202395

CUT THE CRAP! Your Month in Review from the most "progressive" administration ever.
http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10025006297

When presented with predatory policies from both sides, it's not unexpected that people start to lurch back and forth between them in anger. Pointing out that one option is designed to be slightly less vicious than the other does not typically make people cheer and line up for the reaming.

Calling the victims of the bipartisan corporate screwing of America names only adds to the perception of contemptuous arrogance by both parties. Of course people are angry.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

10. Well that doesn't sound good.

I see your point. Ugh. But, do both parties equally support this litany of awful? Or are we talking about just a few Blue Dogs on at least some of these issues?

[woo me with science]

12. Are you pretending this is just in the minds of a few Democrats?

Are you pretending this hasn't been the overwhelming direction of actual policy under this Democratic administration, with the help of corporate Democrats in Congress?

Seriously?

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

18. I'm not pretending anything. I'm asking.

[LordGlenconner]

32. Notice the poster goes from 0 to rude almost instantly

it should tell you a lot.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

34. Ikr, I actually agree with much of what woo_me says, but if s/he can't answer sincere questions,

discussion is difficult at best.

[hfojvt]

28. there has not been that much actual policy

not since Republicans took the House in 2010. There's not much chance of anything progressive happening.

And if you look at the states that Republicans are expected to win, there is no theory of voter apathy needed to explain that. Republicans are expected to win in states where Republicans usually win.

And we wouldn't win states like South Dakota or Montana or Georgia by being further to the left.

[woo me with science]

29. BWAH HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Read the links, and spare the propaganda. We have been here the whole time.

[RKP5637]

19. Often I say R=D, especially when it comes to $$$$$, take the blinders off, but often

I just get deer in the headlight looks. We have such disturbing trends in the US ... the consistently rising inequity between the 99% and the 1%, the loss of honest investigative reporting on MSM, the movement of such corruption into government for wealthy control of the US, the incredible dumbing down of Americans, the bought congress by $$$$$, the corporatization of America to USA, Inc. IMO, both D's and R's are responsible for this!

[woo me with science]

20. +100000 Orwellian droning that 2+2=5,

while we are bashed in the head by the reality of 2+2=4...over and over again, every single day.

[yeoman6987]

11. The problem is states that Romney won

are up for reelection. We just need to convince those states that went for Romney and have Democratic Senators that their Senators have done a great job for their state and keep them. That is a start. Also convince folks who did not vote in the Presidential election in 2012 to vote for the Democratic Senator.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

14. It think we're in trouble then.

Supporters of Romney--that is, the GOPers--seem to have become more rabidly anti-Obama since the election.

[kelly1mm]

27. Kind of impossible to gerrymander the Senate. nt

[deutsey]

13. It's probably God's will

that civilization will grind to a standstill.

--Frank Zappa

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

15. Is Zappa a Republican?

They don't do no good
They never be workin'

We are millions 'n' millions
We're coming to get you
We're protected by unions
So don't let it upset you

[Bluenorthwest]

21. Zappa was a conservative, much of his material is viciously anti gay

He supported Ross Perot's candidacy, for example, and was always yammering about government interference in business, a big libertarian conservative millionaire.

[deutsey]

22. No, but he did have a huge gripe against unions

and how they often made it difficult for him to do his shows.

He was extremely independent-minded about everything, but one thing is certain: he really hated Republicans and, while he didn't think the Democrats in power were that much better, he did want them to win elections over the Republicans.

I know this personally because I met him when I was in college and we talked about a recent mid-term election and he was hoping the Democrats would control the House (I think they did).

In an infamous debate he had on Crossfire in 1988 he said:

"The biggest threat to America today is not communism. It's moving America toward a fascist theocracy, and everything that's happened during the Reagan administration is steering us right down that pipe ... I really think that. … When you have a government that prefers a certain moral code derived from a certain religion and that moral code turns into legislation to suit one certain religious point of view, and if that code happens to be very, very right wing, almost toward Attila the Hun..."

Here's a quote a DU'er posted here a couple years ago:

"I've come to the conclusion that there's only one party in this country and it's divided into two parts: Republicans and Republican wannabes. Republicans stand for evil, corruption, manipulation, greed- everything that Americans think is okay after being conditioned to it during the eighties. Republicans stand for all the values that Americans now hold dear. Plus they have more balloons than God, and for a nation raised on cartoons, that tells you something. Anybody with balloons, they're okay. They don't tell you what kind of crippled people had to blow those suckers up. The Democrats have no agenda, and when they speak on any topic, they want to sound as Republican as possible while still finding a way to retain the pork. "

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=post&forum=1002&pid=5305680

I don't agree with everything Zappa said or believed, but I still respect him as a musician and as someone who nailed the direction this country was going in long before dared admit.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

31. I find that anything I like in any particular Libertarian is far outweighed by what I hate

about them. But I do agree that Zappa nailed in with:

"The biggest threat to America today is not communism. It's moving America toward a fascist theocracy, and everything that's happened during the Reagan administration is steering us right down that pipe ... I really think that. … When you have a government that prefers a certain moral code derived from a certain religion and that moral code turns into legislation to suit one certain religious point of view, and if that code happens to be very, very right wing, almost toward Attila the Hun..."

[melm00se]

16. Perception

When communicating a message, it must resonate (positively) with the intended target. Also, the target must be, to one extent or another, be receptive to the message.

Both parties merrily step on their collect feet with certain areas/groups.

The Republican party does it with northeast and west coast urban areas as well as with minorities.

the Democratic party does it with religious groups and much of the American south.

Both groups are quick alienate these groups which makes them much less receptive to their respective messages (some of which might be positively applicable).

Right now, to certain groups and areas, the Republican party has messaging that works and the Democratic party does not. Instead of looking at the conduit that carries the message, the Democratic party needs to look at it's message (which can be extremely positive) and figure out how better to craft it so it strikes a chord with their intended audience.

For example: a large portion of Christians (as well as other religions) should be firmly in the Democratic camp. (using Christians as an example) the core message of Christianity and the Democratic party are similar in many ways yet some (many?) Christians are alienated by the way that religions and the religious are discussed and dismissed by some of the most vocal members of the Democratic party.

Don't believe me? read what some DUers have to say about religion.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

17. Are you saying that DUers are the most vocal members of the Democratic Party and that those DUers

speak for the Democratic Party to large swaths of the public?

Which Democratic leaders dismiss religion and the religious? Links please?

[Bluenorthwest]

23. A large portion of Christians adhere to the Republican Platform, anti choice, anti gay....

They vote for Republicans over those issues and of course, because of money. Anyone who votes against their values because some poster does not share their religious views is a person who never had any values, ethics nor human decency to begin with.
Are you seriously asserting that these 'Christians' get offended at being criticized, so they storm off in a huff and vote to restrict contraception and end equal civil rights for minority groups out of spite? You think that is a positive thing to say about them? Really?

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

30. Hmmmm. Seems like melm00se isn't interested and discussing actual facts.

[Cyrano]

24. Fear and rage motivate GOP voters

Republicans feed their minions red meat on a regular basis. And those people will turn out to vote.

Democrats, on the other hand, don't even use their accomplishments to motivate their voters. Far be it from them to scare the hell out of recalcitrant voters.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

33. I wonder, though, if we can blame the Dems. It seems that the corporate media controls the messaging

that most potential voters see. How many positive stories have there been in the MSM about Obamacare, despite the fact that (though there certainly is a lot not to like) the ACA has had an very positive effect on many Americans I agree that our side needs to do more, but the positives don't help win elections if no one knows about them.

[TDale313]

25. Simple truth? The math isn't dem friendly this time.

There are more democratic seats- and more vulnerable democratic or recently vacated democratic seats- up for grabs this time. We have a couple we could pick up (Nunn or Grimes) but they have more opportunities just cause of which seats are up for elections. The other factors mentioned don't help either, but I think this is the biggie.

That said, it still seems very possible we can hold the senate. And worse case (and yes, it would be horrible, but...) if we do lose the senate, the dynamics are precisely reversed in 2016, so we'd likely reclaim it then.

[unblock]

26. exactly. historically a president's 6th year is bad for the president's party, and with good reason:

because when that new president comes in, his coattails sweep in more than the usual amount of senators, and those extra seats are usually in swing states.

6 years later, those senators are up for re-election, and without the presidential draw, those new senators are vulnerable.