New CBS/NYT Senate Battleground Poll shatters media myth that Republicans will surely take Senate

[Fred Sanders]

ByANTHONY SALVANTO, DOUG RIVERS, ANDY GUESSCBS NEWSJuly 27, 2014, 10:30 AM

Republicans narrowly favored to capture Senate in November

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/

"A new CBS News/New York Times Battleground Tracker estimate finds the Republicans positioned to take the Senate this year, with a likely 51-49 seat edge if the November election were held right now. The margin of error on that current seat estimate, at plus or minus 2 seats, means Democrats still have a real possibility to keep the chamber and that we head into campaign season with control up for grabs -- with a closely-divided Senate surely coming in 2015 in either case.

The data is based on more than 100,000 interviews conducted online for CBS News and the New York Times by YouGov exclusively as part of this joint project, with samples for every individual Senate race and House race, oversamples in competitive races, and each matched to the demographics and voter characteristics in the states and districts.

The current Senate is 55-45 Democratic."

..........................

Care to take bets that CBS mainstream and all the 1% media will barely mention is poll and that CBS will not be using this pollster the next time?

[Fred Sanders]

1. The poll margin of error is "+ or - 2 seats", that made me laugh.

[brooklynite]

2. I'm sorry, what exactly is your point?

The poll says the Republicans are narrowly favored to win enough seats to take control of the Senate. Personally, I think we'll hold it by the skin of our teeth, but the estimates -at this momen- are reasonable. What's the discrepancy?

[Fred Sanders]

3. I do not share your opinion that this poll's reading and the general media reading are the same.

[msanthrope]

4. VOTE!!!! nt

[msongs]

5. so why can't democrats sell their brand better? because it is too republican lite? nt

[brooklynite]

6. So you're saying Democratic liberalism would sell better in SD, AR and MT?

[Fred Sanders]

8. I think runaway liberalism will motivate the unlikely voter demographic to vote.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. Because the Corporate Media pushes Republican lies and shuts Democrats down.

That's why. It's not Democratic Party messaging. It's the media's framing.

[brooklynite]

7. NY Times: Who Will Win The Senate?

Who Will Win The Senate? According to our statistical election-forecasting machine, the Republicans have a slight edge, with about a 60% chance of gaining a majority.

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/

[Fred Sanders]

9. Your link has it at 55%.