I have an ominous feeling about Invest 94L

[malaise]

and yes this is six days away from the Caribbean, but here's comes mid-August and we're approaching peak season





Jeff Masters

A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday was located near 11°N, 21°W on Sunday morning, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC . Satellite loops show the wave has a modest amount of spin and respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 94L is located in a fairly moist environment, with the dry air coming off of Africa located well to the north and west of the disturbance. Wind shear was a high 25 - 30 knots, but the 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range on Monday afternoon, then to the low range on Tuesday afternoon. The wave is headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday, according to the Sunday morning runs of the GFS and European models. None of the reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation develop 94L, but about 1/3 of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble show development late this week (the GFS ensemble is a set of 20 runs of the GFS model done at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions to generate an uncertainty "plume" of model runs.) In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 30%, respectively. Mid-August is the time when the Atlantic hurricane season kicks into high gear, and 94L is definitely a disturbance we need to watch.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2755

[msongs]

1. investment advice on DU lol nt

[malaise]

2. Investigate - nice NHC term

LOL

[hobbit709]

3. The ones that start that close to Africa are always the big ones

[KoKo]

4. Yep...and Jeff Masters is the one to watch on this....

It's too early to tell...but he's often correct in spotting the dangerous ones early on.

[malaise]

6. He's my guru - one of

the best in the business - I also love Max Mayfield who gave Bushco et al all the information needed for Katrina and they still blew it.

[KoKo]

12. Was he the one who posted when Katrina was coming in the DIRE Consequences

as a warning? I remember being here on DU that night...and being devastated that people wouldn't listen to him? He posted and it was Dire...his feelings and emotions that night?

I wonder that we would ever hear from "Honest" folks like him who would ever have the courage to Warn Again?

Was that the guy? I remember that night here on DU so well. What the Hell happened to us since then... Well...whatever...no use crying over spilt milk.

[malaise]

14. Yes= never forgot that night either

He was Director of the NHC at the time. He retired and works with ABC in Florida.

[KoKo]

15. Thanks..always wondered what happen to him. n/t

[malaise]

18. Enjoy this - he does updates at least twice a day

http://www.local10.com/news/3833928

[KoKo]

21. Seriously! Thanks again! n/t

[Mojorabbit]

24. Both are amazing! I am watching this one develop closely. nt

[Warpy]

5. The pattern of the past few years is that the ones that start near the Cape Verde

stay out to sea, usually thanks to capture by a weather front at some point during their week long transit across the Atlantic.

Then again, Bertha started out there and gave glancing blows to the eastern Caribbean islands and the southernmost Bahamas before going out to sea, so who knows?

We're getting a normal monsoon season in the desert southwest, so maybe formerly normal weather patterns are reasserting themselves elsewhere, too.

Still, it's far too soon to give anything but guesswork on what this one will do and where it will go.

[hedgehog]

7. I don't know what "normal" is, any more.

Here in Upstate New York along the Lakes, we're expecting a big winter this year.

[Warpy]

8. The new normal is that there is no normal

and that means that there is no longer a food reserve, although we're still managing to feed ourselves in this country.

That's scary.

[KoKo]

17. Been my feeling too...that "The New Normal is No Normal."

Glad there's someone else here who feels the same ways. Truly... But....we still don't know...it's our Gut Feeling...I guess. Which folks say isn't real or scientific because it isn't based on statistics and models and the "rule of Law." I'm just being a bit OTT..here...though.

I do believe in Science and the rest. I still believe in "Intuition" though until that's denied to us, as part of the "Human Experience Picture." 's

Always explain it this way: "I grew up in Rural America...My View is Different from Yours in the Metropolitan Cities who drive our culture, economy and advertising."

[Warpy]

23. Intuition is usually our right brain screaming at our left brain

"WHEN ARE YOU FUCKING GOING TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS!!!?? Gut feelings should be acknowledged rather than ignored. However, when additional data disprove what our guts are telling our brains, it's time to move on to another body system for decision making.

[lordsummerisle]

9. I guess I'm glad that

ominous feelings aren't used in forecasts...

[KoKo]

13. Don't ever discount "Ominous Feelings" though. It allowed

Civilization to move forward when the "Primates" were were WIRED into Self Preservation from their basic...animal instincts that have been "bred out" through evolution but some unfortunates of us still retain that gene. Damn It...I wish I could donate that gene...but, alas I feel it's still valuable as a warning amongst the population to still retain that "sense" that alerts us to "something is amiss."

[lordsummerisle]

19. OK, sure

but I don't think we need to dive under our desks every time a low pressure wave wafts off Africa into the Atlantic...

[KoKo]

20. No one is doing that...just having "a bit of fun" for those of us who live in hurricane

areas. We have to VENT from time to time. Those of us who have been through Hurricanes tend to have a genuine interest in what is to come to prepare. We are "REALISTS."

[Logical]

22. +1000, it sure didn't help people 100 years ago from dying. n-t

[JaneyVee]

10. Bomb the wave!

[malaise]

11. Bombs are no match for mother nature

[Logical]

16. Are you a meteorologist? Expert in this? Or just guessing? nt

[steve2470]

25. kick and rec ! nt

[djean111]

26. I live in Florida.

I am very grateful for "ominous feelings".
Nothing wrong with that, nothing wrong with being a bit hyper aware of something that may just hit me, gives me time to survey my readiness. How can that be harmful?

[malaise]

27. You know the last year a storm hit the big island in Hawaii

was also a year when we had fewer Atlantic hurricanes but guess what. That was 1992 - the year Andrew hit Florida and I'll never forget that one. Gilbert, Andrew Ivan, Katrina and Sandy are the five big ones in my lifetime.

Sandy formed south of Jamaica and I always feared for the US South East. There was just that feeling. Strangely enough as close as Ivan was to Jamaica's south coast, I also had a feeling he would not give us a direct hit.

There are no feelings without looking at the scientific stuff - the models

[Logical]

28. Well, did anything happen? nt

[cwydro]

29. Nope. nt

[malaise]

30. Thankfully no

but don't write it off yet - there's convection in it this morning.



Glad my feeling was wrong.

Keep an eye on all those waves coming out of Africa at this time