Obama leads Romney in Maine by 18%, Michigan by 8% in new polls

[Justice4allofus]

Both polls among Likely Voters, conducted late March/early April:

Link to Maine poll (pdf): https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bz1xw7lZwFn_WUw2ajJ0UXFSQzI0LVRSdGZDU3pfZw/edit?pli=1

Link to Michigan poll (pdf): http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/epicmra.pdf

[Daniel537]

1. Two states that are fool's gold for Republicans.

If Romney is as smart as he thinks he is, he'll spend his cash elsewhere.

[RZM]

2. He probably will

It might be hard for him to give up on Michigan, but he will have to do so if he wants to win. That money would be better spent in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida.

But who knows. Maybe he really believes that he's Mitt-tastic enough to win Michigan. But I would think it's a lost cause for him.

[Daniel537]

4. I think he'll probably skip Michigan in favor of Pennsylvania and the result will still be the same.

And if he's not winning Florida by a comfortable margin in the polls going in to Nov. 6, then his campaign is probably doomed, because there is no realistic path for Romney without Florida.

[RZM]

5. Not only that

I don't think there's a realistic path without Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, AND Ohio.

And even then, he would have to pick up either Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, or Iowa to win. He could win all of the states in my first line and still lose the election. And if he doesn't win all of them, it's game over.

Pennsylvania and Michigan are probably lost causes for him. It's possible he'll get closer in Michigan that another Republican would, but he won't win it.

[Daniel537]

6. Indeed, the math for Romney seems almost insurmountable.

The number of states he has to flip seems like just too many, but we'll see. I'll do my part to make sure he doesn't win Florida.

[RZM]

8. It's going to be an uphill climb for them

Obama definitely doesn't have it in the bag, but he's got the advantage for sure.

I think that Romney will get Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. Obama will get Nevada and New Mexico. So it will boil down to Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Colorado. Those four will decide the election. I don't think they will split them evenly either. One candidate (most likely Obama) will win at least three of them. They will all be very close though.

[Daniel537]

11. I think Romney has a better chance here in FL than in VA.

The make-up of this state (rich retirees, conservatives in the central/northern part of the state, Cubans in the south etc...) seems more favorable to him. But like you said, he could win both and still lose this thing. Doing the math on 270towin, it seems that as long as Pres. Obama wins Ohio, the election is his. We shall see.

[cyclezealot]

7. One thing about Romney .

I'd be surprised should his money find no limits..

[aspieextrodinare]

3. Ummm duh?

Has any Republican won either of those states since 1984? (Edited to make it the right year)

[cyclezealot]

9. 1988

Not a banner Democratic year..
Bush I /Dukakis.. Bush I carried both Maine and Michigan. Bush even carried California that year.

[aspieextrodinare]

12. LOL same difference

It's still been over 2 decades.

[corkhead]

13. It's a little different... Michigan is one of the states RMoney Etch-a-sketch claims to be from.

In fact, he won't likely carry any of his states

[GoCubsGo]

10. Only 8% in Michigan?

Are you sure those numbers aren't reversed? That any Michigander still supports Rmoney after his "Let the auto industry die." comment just blows my mind.

[Motown_Johnny]

14. There are lots of (R)s here. We are still a swing state

even though we tend to go (D) more often than not.

Plus, lots of old people here still remember his father and we know how (R)s are about voting for someone's son.

[Zax2me]

15. Don't post this!

As far as I'm concerned we are 20 points behind in every state and voter drives begin TODAY.

[DCBob]

16. "Let Detroit go Bankrupt"

will ensure Obama victory in Michigan.

[CobaltBlue]

17. Maine? Sure. Michigan? No.

Bad poll. There won't be a 10-point difference between the two states.

In 2008, President Obama won Maine by 17.33%. He won Michigan by 16.44%.

For it to be 18 points in Maine -- that's re-election.

For it to by just 8 points in Michigan -- that's getting unseated.

Be careful with Michigan and Pennsylvania. Lots of b.s. polling results too favorable to the Republicans. The two states are Democratic when it comes to a list of both parties' base states. So is Maine. And a host of other states.

More than likely it is this:

If Obama is getting re-elected, Maine and Michigan are close to each other in margins. And they're both at least five points above how Obama nationally performs. (He beat John McCain, in 2008, by 7.26%.)