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Pay Attention Folks - Now Tropical Depression #4
Last edited Sat Aug 23, 2014, 04:47 PM - Edit history (1)
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2772<snip>
Since yesterday, there have been major shifts to the forecast tracks – especially after Sunday – raising the risk level for the entire eastern US from Florida to New England – with about equal odds that the potential storm will impact the coast or turn out to sea. This is not a surprise since track and intensity forecasts are notorious for major shifts for systems that are still in the formative stages. Ironically, the CMC forecast, which was consistently forecasting the system to track across south Florida, has now shifted dramatically to that shown by many of the major model suites, while the more reliable track forecast models have now shifted westward, much closer to the coast. The spread of forecast tracks is now quite large – again, a typical feature of forecasts for systems still forming. The forecast challenge has been unusually high for this system, not just because it has yet to really develop and has tracked across Hispaniola (a landmass notorious for ‘destroying’ even the most well developed and intense hurricanes) but because of the unusually high track sensitivity to a ‘weakness’ in the east-west sub-tropical ridgeline that extends from the central Atlantic to the Gulf coast. While the models continue to show a break between the high pressure center in the central Atlantic and the one near the Gulf coast during the next 36 hours, the resulting TROF within this break will be relatively weak, and will begin to dissipate staring late Monday. The exact timing of this ‘break’ – and the exact location and strength of 96L during the next 72 hours will determine exactly where and when (if ?) the system turns northward. Prior model runs were in generally good agreement that the system would turn northward when it was still about 300NM east of Florida, while the most recent model runs show a far more gradual recurvature – with some of the more reliable models showing the storm getting very close to the coast before beginning to turn northward, and are all calling for the storm to be moving much slower, with the system not expected to be near the US coast for another 4 or even 5 days.
8 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
I sometimes forget to check the hurricane site
and we have no tv/radio to grab out attention...
