"Six Consistently Close Races Will Probably Decide Control of the Senate"

[applegrove]

Six Consistently Close Races Will Probably Decide Control of the Senate

by Harry Enten at fivethirtyeight

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/six-consistently-close-races-will-probably-decide-control-of-the-senate/

"SNIP................................


The map right now is simple: Control of the Senate will be decided in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana and North Carolina. Republicans must win at least half of these races.

Yet, we still can’t say with much confidence who will win the Senate. These are tight races.

In our latest FiveThirtyEight forecast, we gave Republicans no higher than a 60 percent chance of winning any of these six seats and no lower than a 40 percent chance. In the Huffington Post’s Pollster aggregates, no candidate in any of these races leads by more than 3.1 percentage points. All these races are too close to call.

The races have also been consistently tight. We’re not just looking at a fluke poll that shows a close election; voters seem to have held onto their opinions. The margin in these six races has shifted an average of less than 2 percentage points over the past six months, according to the Huffington Post Pollster aggregate. Since June 1, the races have shifted by only 0.7 points on average, and no race has shifted more than 2 points.


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