Fewer people are responding to polls this year-compared to 2012 & more expect greater polling error

[kpete]

found this:

It seems like SCOTUS just moon-walked Same Sex Marriage into law.

“Many say fewer people are responding to polls this year, compared to 2012, and more expect greater polling error — that is, the difference between what the latest pre-election polls show and actual vote margins — in the upcoming election, than expect less error."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pollsters-predict-greater-polling-error-in-midterm-elections/
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/wait-what--3

[Spazito]

1. Polls are becoming less and less relevant of anything, imo...

With many people getting rid of their land lines and solely using their cells pollsters are only able to get responses from fewer and fewer people, more and more of them older folks. Add to this, even with a land line many have caller ID options where if one doesn't recognize the name or number one doesn't answer assuming it will be a telemarketer.

[Andy823]

3. I agree

In my area the vast majority of polls, and actually I have had very few pollsters call, are done by republicans, you can tell by their questions. My mother in law was a registered republican before she passed last year, and she received all kinds of calls polling her. When I hear the questions, and they are all about how bad the president is, or democrats in our state offices, I usual just hang up.

I have never received any poll calls on my cellphone. The vast majority of polls I have seen so far seem to be aimed at discouraging democrats to get out and vote. The ones on TV, and the ones being posted on DU. As someone yesterday pointed out, the only polls that get any attention on DU seem to be the negative ones. When a positive poll comes out, it sinks like a rock, where as negative ones get kicked to the top. I ignore the polls, and hope that everyone else does. The one thing I know for a fact is that when democrats get out and vote, democrats win. If they don't then only republicans win.

We all need to stop paying attention to all the negativity trying to discourage democrat from voting, and just get out and vote, period!

[Spazito]

4. I totally agree with you!

It's not polls that show up to vote, it is the public and attempts to suppress or discourage Democrats from voting are despicable whether done by repubs or supposed 'Democrats'.

If the Democrats lose the Senate, everything that has been accomplished will be lost, imo. 2014 is a VERY important election, imo, VERY, VERY important.

[yeoman6987]

5. We say that every election

So far we have survived. I do think it is important but on a policy aspect. I don't believe a thing will get done in the next two years. The Senate will be closer then the last two years. Status quo until 2017 which is even more important when we have a huge advantage in the Senate.

[Spazito]

6. The havoc that will be created by the repubs over the two years until the next election...

if they gain the Senate is worth consideration, imo. At best, President Obama will be very busy with his veto pen, at worst social programs' funding will be decimated, imo.

With both the House and the Senate in repub hands, many programs will be at great risk.

[yeoman6987]

7. I don't deny that

I just don't think it is the most important election in our lives.

[Spazito]

8. I didn't say "it is the most important election in our lives"...

I did give my opinion that I think it is a "VERY, VERY important election", am I to assume you don't think it's a VERY important one?

[yeoman6987]

9. I am a cynic. If we did not get anything done the last two years

How are we going to with a even closer Senate split?

[Spazito]

11. I, too, am a cynic and don't see much being done in the next two years, my point is...

more that the 2014 election is very important to stop damage being done to any number of programs by getting out the vote for Democrats so they hold the Senate. I found this interesting graph which shows when the Dems and the Repubs held both the House and the Senate and, at times, the Presidency as well.

[yeoman6987]

14. That is a neat chart

We had it good back in the 30-80's. practically had everything for a long while. We need to get back to those years. I didn't realize that President Carter had both the House and Senate his entire 4 years.

[Spazito]

22. It is interesting...

there was great progress when the Dems had both the House and the Senate whereas progress was impeded when the repubs controlled both. The Bush years are particularly striking, imo.

[former9thward]

12. Major pollsters call cell phones.

Go to the website of any of them and they will tell you the methodology they use. For some reason people think they can't or don't call cell phones. They can and do.

[Spazito]

15. Relative to the number of calls to land lines versus cell phones, there are very few...

one big reason is the Telephone Consumer Protection Act where they must call by 'hand' rather than automated which creates a major obstacle.

Here's the Act:

http://transition.fcc.gov/cgb/policy/TCPA-Rules.pdf

Editing to add Salon article on this subject:

http://www.salon.com/2010/07/16/cell_phones_polling/

[former9thward]

16. The polls have been relatively accurate year after year.

Especially when you average them. When they stop being accurate I'll stop looking at them. It is popular to trash polls when the results are not favorable. I take them as they are.

[Spazito]

17. Actually, they have been less accurate over recent years...

and even they admit the increasing difficulty they are encountering.

[Andy823]

24. I agree

I have a business so I can't really screen my calls, but when I find an area code in the caller ID that I have never seen before, I usually just pick up and hang up without speaking. If it's actually a business call they call right back, otherwise I figure telemarketers. Some have been calling using area codes from my state so I answer, but I hang up if they are robo calls or telemarketers.

[JaneyVee]

18. Seriously! I hang up on pollsters and vote every election.

[Spazito]

19. Yep, I have caller ID on both my land line and cell phone, if I don't recognize...

the number or name, I don't answer. I used to agree to do polls but no longer, too many are push polls.

[JaneyVee]

20. I did one in 2012 and it took over 10 minutes. Now I just hang up on them.

[Spazito]

21. More and more of the public is doing this...

which narrows the demographics the pollsters can access, I think they are reaching more of the older, conservative, rural voters than they are the younger, liberal, urban voters which is bound to skew their numbers to some extent, imo.

[nc4bo]

2. Can't stand polls myself.

DU already predicted this years ago, pollsters didn't seem to catch on and thought otherwise.

But perhaps it can be looked at in another way, politicians are going to have to freshen up their routines.

[Blue_In_AK]

10. People here are playing all kinds of tricks on the pollsters,

mainly because we're getting four or five of them a day. I don't answer my phone. I read a couple people's posts on FB this morning where they said they were answering all the questions as strong liberals, which they are, and then saying they're registered Republican. LOL.

[otohara]

13. I'm One

feels good to say "none of your business".

Click

[Andy823]

23. I was doing some research today

While looking at the pros and cons of dropping my landline I found a site that said that pollers don't like to call cell phones because they can't use robo dialing for cell phones. Some do call but they have to pay when they dial manually and get a voice mail message.

The article also stated that most people who still have landlines are the elderly who need them for 911 calls since a landline will pin point your address even in an apartment building, where cell phones are not accurate in an apartment building, they get the location address, but not an actual apartment number.