Election Projection Update: Governor count gets bluer, House gets redder
I've been able to secure access to the website today and post new numbers. Three party switchers are on the board after adding the results of today's poll report in the projection calculations. They include two governorships, both of which have flipped from Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold, and one House race which represents a new projected GOP takeover.
In the 2014 Massachusetts governor election, Democratic nominee Martha Coakley reclaims the lead over Republican Charlie Baker on the strength of two polls this week giving her small leads of two and four points. The other gubernatorial flip also comes from New England where Incumbent Democrat Dan Malloy vaults back in front thanks to a Public Policy survey showing him up by 6 over Republican Tom Foley in the Connecticut governor election.
The lone party switcher in the House comes from the California CD-52 election. Republican Carl DeMaio polls ahead of incumbent Democratic incumbent Scott Peters in this competitive district by an average of 0.5%. The narrow advantage is enough to barely overcome a Democratic-leaning 0.4% generic polling adjustment. With this change, the GOP is projected to extend their majority by a net 5 seats in the current 2014 House election projections.
http://www.electionprojection.com/blog/archives/oct14/governor-count-gets-bluer-house-gets-redder-100814.php