I filter all information through probability. For example, the death of Michael Brown. I'm willing to believe that Michael Brown may have committed a robbery. I'm even willing to believe that he had an altercation, perhaps a fight while leaning into the police car. Those are possible, I'm not saying that's what happened, but I'm willing to accept it's possible. Possible as opposed to probable.
Stay with me friends. The story continues.
Then the gunshot rang out, and Michael Brown ran. A normal human response. Instinctive response. I'm absolutely willing to believe that. Because it makes sense, because it fits with normal human reactions. A high probability reaction to an event. Fight or flight, basic human instinctive response that is very strong, and very much ingrained into all of us as a survival mechanism.
Then the second gunshot. I'm willing to accept that Michael stopped and turned around. Again, flight response, overwhelmed by fear of harm. But the probability of someone first running, and then turning to attack is very low. It takes more than a handful of seconds to switch from flight to fight in anyone but highly trained and disciplined individuals. Once the flight starts, it's very hard to turn it to fight. Again, probability says fifty fifty that he would stop, or keep running. Given the absence of suitable cover, a place to hide, then stopping and surrendering is a highly probable reaction. The fact that several witnesses saw Michael raise his hands in surrender cements this in my mind as the most probable explanation of the actual shooting. Not the events leading up to it. But the point where Darren Wilson fired and killed Michael Brown.
It is most improbable that Michael or anyone would give up the advantage they had, physical contact with the other person in the altercation, run and open up the distance, and then turn at the very next threat to themselves a handful of seconds later and move to attack. That is so improbable as to be laughable. Not impossible, but unless the individual was on some sort of mind altering drug, say PCP, there is virtually no chance of such an action happening. Because the PCP addled person would not have run, and then turned to attack. They would have beaten the cop half to death and not noticed their own bones shattering under the force of the blows until much later.
Probability says that it is fairly short of certain that Michael Brown turned and raised his hands in surrender. Beyond a reasonable doubt? Most probably.
I know the most recent shooting story in Ferguson has changed several times, and statements are being challenged. I will be honest, I don't believe the cop automatically. I never do. The story almost always has a whiff of the implausible about it. How much of that is due to erroneous relation of the story, and the story itself we will see. If I was in St. Louis, I would probably be out with the protesters.
Try it. You'll find you are able to spot lies very easily. You may not know the whole truth, but you can spot events that don't seem to add up in a manner of speaking.
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. But I was momentarily quite out of control with anger. It was all so unfair! I drove back from her service crying uncontrollably and had to pull over several times just to get myself together.
