Democrats are pulling out of the Kentucky Senate race. Here’s why that’s important.

[babylonsister]

Democrats are pulling out of the Kentucky Senate race. Here’s why that’s important.
By Chris Cillizza October 14 at 3:34 PM


Roll Call newspaper -- Fix alum! -- broke the news Tuesday afternoon: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had pulled its TV advertising for the final three weeks in the Kentucky Senate race. That decision effectively leaves Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes on her own and is rightly read as a sign that national Democrats believe the race is effectively over. (The DSCC didn't not return an email seeking comment on their decision.)

The DSCC's decision to pull out of Kentucky, a race in which they had spent months insisting was closer than most public polls showed it, is a recognition that in a year in which the Senate map and the national political climate are tilted against them, the party's best chances to hold the majority now rests in trying to hold onto their endangered incumbents.

One Democratic strategist closely following the Kentucky race insists that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is still beatable but that Senate Democrats have to prioritize sitting Senators at this point in the election cycle. "The DSCC action is less about the viability of the race, and probably the recognition that, in tough years the priority — in the House AND the Senate — is protecting the incumbents," said the source. "In other words, defense not offense."

Another Democratic consultant tracking the McConnell-Grimes contest largely agreed, noting that pulling money out of Kentucky means "you can play in Georgia, which is within the margin and the trend lines are going the right way, expand buys in Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa and Louisiana, which are all neck and neck, and then gamble on a wildcard like South Dakota."

more...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/14/democrats-are-pulling-out-of-the-kentucky-senate-race-heres-why-thats-important/

[truebrit71]

1. Chris Cillizza whoring for the gop again...

...I thought the latest polls show her ahead in that state?

[babylonsister]

7. He's not whoring if that's what's going on. And...

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/10/14/mcconnell_slightly_ahead_in_kentucky.html



October 14, 2014

McConnell Slightly Ahead in Kentucky

A new Gravis Marketing poll in Kentucky finds Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) leading challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) by just three points, 50% to 47%.

[OilemFirchen]

29. Good lord.

The Worst Poll in America

There's always one, and so far in 2014, Gravis Marketing is in the lead for the prestigious Strategic Vision Award for Botched Polling. In Texas, its final poll of Sen. John Cornyn's primary gave him a weak 43–28 lead over Rep. Steve Stockman. This was 25 points off—Cornyn beat Stockman, one of the laziest campaigners in recent Texas memory, by a 59–19 margin. (Other anti-Cornyn candidates split the rest.)

In Kentucky, Gravis closed out with a poll that found Mitch McConnell up by 14 points—48 to 34 over Matt Bevin. When I met Bevin at CPAC, he pointed out (not incorrectly) that he was burning a trail across the state, quite a contrast to Stockman. Gravis was slightly less wrong this time, as Bevin won 35 percent of the vote. But McConnell won 60 percent, for a 25-point margin that more than doubled Gravis'. The poll that gives the most hope to insurgents does so by being wildly off.

I called Gravis's Doug Kaplan, who explained the results. Gravis called up voters who planned to participate in the primary, but didn't screen for people who'd voted in previous primaries. (There was a highly contexted, Tea Party-powered primary as recently as the 2011 gubernatorial race.) "We should have done that," Kaplan said. "In crosstabs, if you look at Republicans only, we nailed that -- McConnell was at 60 percent."

[reflection]

40. Gravis.

What a dumpster fire.

[madville]

20. One poll out of the last two months had her +2

Everything else has had Mitchy +3-5 points. They just had their debate and the voting controversy thing so polls in a week should reflect some of that.

[kentuck]

22. Alison has been traveling the entire state...

and getting votes that are not showing up in the polls. She will still win this race.

[elleng]

27. OH how I/WE hope you're correct, kentuck,

and you SHOULD know!

[The Traveler]

28. I just have a feeling

That the outcome will be decided by a very narrow margin, that Alison is within striking distance (despite the dust up over the "did you vote for Obama" question), and that this is no time to wimp out.

I'm in GA ... been donating to Nunn ... now feel I have to send some of my limited bucks towards KY.

Trav

[kentuck]

36. :-)

[Cleita]

2. This doesn't make sense.

I'd like to know what is behind it all, you know, the back room deals and all.

[kentuck]

17. No, it doesn't since...

...the last poll showed her ahead by two points???????

[madville]

23. Last poll had had McConnell +4

But it was a Fox poll, drop both of those and McConnell has about a +3 average

[Caretha]

43. Pisses the

crap out of me. For hell's sake...how do we ever expect to win if we're not willing to fight till the end.

This tells me Mitch McConnell is willing to sell his soul to all the players and the 3rd way Dems are willing to buy it.

[Fred Sanders]

3. B.S.analysis by the Washington Post.....the race is still very close, money is limited...Grimes can

win with her stellar debate performance and remaining other financial support....the headline is misleading....intentionally so?

I have added the Wash. Post to my list of corporate media that no longer bother to hide their bias for the GOP, payback for bottomless ad purchases. Another one corrupted.

[babylonsister]

8. Why be pissed at the WaPo if the dscc is withdrawing their support?

They should be the likely targets.

[Fred Sanders]

11. Not pissed at anyone, the analysis is wrong, could be many reasons for the withdrawal....

the withdrawal of an unknown amount of financial support has an unknown impact because the total spending from all sources is unknown , and unknown financial support considered or contemplated and not given is not "withdraw of support".

Also when more money is committed to a race it is said that is because the candidate is faltering...you can analyze it both ways equally.

[kentuck]

42. True.

Thanks.

[brooklynite]

14. and what would be the value of an "intentionally" misleading headline?

Voters in Kentucky are going to be influenced by a story on campaign tactics in the Washington Post?

[Fred Sanders]

44. It is not going to help, but more to the point is the constant twisting of all facts to be either

anti-liberal or pro GOP, it is a purposeful pattern....the negativity is expounded upon, the positive is buried underneath.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

37. Usually campaign committees generally stay when a race is competitive.

Either the DSCC thinks she is a shoo-in or she's doomed.

[hrmjustin]

4. They are telling local KY reporters they might come back in the race.

[KamaAina]

5. Iowa just took a turn for the worse

the Libertarian candidate was killed in, you got it, a small plane crash.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014917622

[truebrit71]

9. Oh wow....

...

[Politicalboi]

6. Could be because of her gaffe

Now it's all about who she voted for in 2012 and 2008. I hope she wins, but maybe Bill and Hillary can give her a few bucks. She did vote for Hillary over Obama after all.

[KamaAina]

10. Gaffe?

You mean "trap". Yertle was trying to get her to say the O-word, after she's been distancing herself from Obama the entire campaign. And of course the M$M has picked this non-event up and run with it.

[bigwillq]

13. I don't see it as a gaffe

nor do I think her answer would be a deciding factor in someone voting for her or not. I hope not, at least. That would be quite silly, imo.

[stevenleser]

12. I can only guess that the DSCC's own internal polling is showing them something we don't see.

It seems counter-intuitive. A three point race is one in which you have a shot three weeks out. It also seemed like the momentum was going in Grimes' favor.

[justiceischeap]

15. Optimism, I like it

Maybe polling is showing they don't need to spend more money there because the race is as close as it gets and in the final 3 weeks its up to Grimes to win it or lose it.

[kentuck]

16. They probably want McConnell to win?

So they can have an excuse for doing nothing.

[Cleita]

18. It sure seems like it, doesn't it? eom

[kentuck]

19. I have a hunch...

that the orders came from the White House. If she will say that she supported Obama, the money will come back into her race. Politics is a dirty business. A possibility?

[AtomicKitten]

21. riiiiiiiight

[kentuck]

25. Oh, silly me.

They would never do anything like that. They love Hillary, also.

[JoePhilly]

31. Obama probably killed that Libertarian in Iowa too!!!

[kentuck]

32. Funny.

Not!

[JoePhilly]

38. As long as we're making things up.

[AtomicKitten]

41. I would agree.

Silly you. Obama rescued Hillary from having to go back to the Senate where she was a junior Senator, 90-something'th in seniority, with no chairmanship of any committee. Instead he lifted her up and gave her a job that would promote her career setting her up for future endeavors. What did he get for that? Benghazi and a knife in the back from her and her surrogates. The reasonable reaction to that would be to kick her/their backstabbing ass to the curb, but Obama is a better man than most and suggesting otherwise is simply absurd because it is frustratingly apparent by all measure that that is not the way he rolls.

[Cali_Democrat]

24. LOL

Thanks Obama!

[leftstreet]

26. The Democratic party LOVES gridlock! n/t

[babylonsister]

30. Huh? Dems want that? Are you serious?

You don't think they'd love to kick McConnell to the curb if it was in their power to do so?

[kentuck]

33. You would think so, huh?

But it seems they are deserting her rather prematurely to me. I would say she has a better chance than Udall in Colorado.

[babylonsister]

35. I agree there; I don't know what their motives are,

other than what was said above about internal polling, but I can't imagine that's always 100% accurate.

[kentuck]

45. Alison posted her quarterly contributions.

Right after that news about the DSCC.

It seems she has raised about $16 million this quarter! She doesn't need the help of the DSCC and I guess they have decided not to run the "Cut! Cut! Cut!" ad about Ebola and the lack of funding for NIH, etc...?

[Puzzledtraveller]

34. no surprise

Her polling I think was overstated. I have lived in Kentucky since 1976. Outside of the metro areas she does not do well. That pretty much leaves you with Louisville and parts of Lexington.

[tritsofme]

39. The DSCC is battling for the majority, and does not have infinite resources.

It is triage time. Grimes has been stumbling the last few weeks, if the numbers aren't there, at some point they have to cut losses. They can always go back on the air if it makes sense.