Are ISIS' attacks on Kobane and Baghdad just for the sake of boosting morale?

[DetlefK]

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/10/why-islamic-state-is-losing-111872.html#ixzz3GAefTevU

Excerpt:

"In truth, the threat posed to Baghdad this autumn is emerging less because ISIL is winning the war in Iraq and more because it might be slowly but steadily losing it. All across north-central Iraq, ISIL is being challenged by joint forces comprised of Sunni tribes, Shia militias, Iraqi soldiers, Iranian advisors and U.S. airpower. ISIL is struggling to maintain its grip on this battlefield of strange bedfellows, and it could be moving on Baghdad now out of a desperate need for a big victory more than anything else. Even as ISIL appears to be making progress in marginal places like Kobane, the Syrian Kurdish border town, inside Iraq the group has been faltering and needs a new front to rejuvenate its campaign.

Among the less-noted victories against ISIL recently: In early October, Kurdish peshmerga forces and local Sunni tribesmen of the Shammar confederation – usually bitter rivals – cooperated in a three-day blitzkrieg that recaptured the vital Rabiya border crossing that links the ISIL territories in Iraq and Syria. In Dhuluiya, 45 miles north of Baghdad, Sunni tribesmen of the Jabouri confederation are pushing ISIL back from their lands in collaboration with both Iraqi Army forces and, stunningly, Iranian-backed Shia militiamen from the Kataib Hezbollah movement.

Near Kirkuk, the Obeidi confederation, another conglomeration of Sunni tribes, is starting to cooperate with Shia Turkmen tribes and Kurdish security forces against ISIL. For the first time since June, the Iraqi government is able to drive tanks and supply columns all the way from Baghdad to Kirkuk, allowing the security forces to open a new front on ISIL’s eastern flank.

...

But overall, ISIL’s reaction to Sunni tribal uprisings – suicide bombings and assassinations against the tribes – will only reinforce tribal resolve. ISIL still needs to relieve pressure on its northern Iraqi territories and open a new front.

Which is where Baghdad comes in. Regardless of what happens in Anbar, ISIL needs to punch back somewhere vital, somewhere sensitive, if it is to regain the initiative in Iraq. Iraq-watchers have been waiting for an ISIL thrust against Baghdad for many months, and many are scratching their heads as to why it has not landed yet."

[The Magistrate]

1. I Suspect The Commentator Is Over-Optimistic, Sir

But there is some soundness to the general line presented.

Partisan movements need a continual diet of victory, they must always be seen to be advancing in order to hold popular support, and the fighting morale of all but the most committed cadre among their fighters. It is not bad positioning to seem always on the verge of something great, and both the well-publicized engagement at Kobane, and the looming specter of continually 'nearing' Baghdad, fill this bill admirably.

Personally, I have never expected they will take Baghdad, or the airport, or manage anything more there than perhaps a campaign of suicide bombings in the city. There are inherent limits to the I.S.I.L.'s spreading in Iraq; it has no reach beyond predominantly Sunni areas, and these begin to peter out as one nears the capital.