Two new polls (Rasmussen and Gallup) show Grimes "in trouble"...

[kentuck]

However, I think some pollsters become "players" in the game and attempt to get a candidate to believe they are behind further than they might actually be? They want them to spend their money unwisely or to make a reactionary mistake. I still think the race is much closer and that ALG is probably a few points ahead. Go ahead and accuse me of whistling past the graveyard, but that is what I believe.
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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/trouble-for-alison-lundergan-grimes-kentucky-senate

<snip>
But lately there have been signs of trouble for the underdog Democrat, even as she remains upbeat about her chances. Two more of them emerged on Friday.

A Rasmussen poll found Grimes trailing McConnell by a margin of 44 to 52 percent, the best result for the 30-year Republican senator in more than a dozen recent surveys. (The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.)

Rasmussen surveys have in the past been criticized for overstating the strength of conservative candidates, but the poll is still welcome news for McConnell: He expanded his lead by 3 points since the last Rasmussen poll in September.

Also on Friday, Gallup reported on "a series of disheartening figures" for Grimes.

....more

[belzabubba333]

1. i dont take part in any polls nor do i pay much attention to them i just go vote when it's time

[bigdarryl]

2. That Gallup poll on Grimes was done.in June

Look at the bottom of it

[kentuck]

3. Good catch!

I did not see that.

[AverageJoe90]

4. Here's the thing-Rasmussen is a terribly biased pollster, and that Gallup poll's from June.

Terrible, terrible reporting by TPM here. I expected better from an alternative site.....thanks Kentuck.

[Savannahmann]

5. Here are all the polls on Grimes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_mcconnell_vs_grimes-3485.html

The 538 blog. Go to elections tab and see the individual races. http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Daily Kos. http://www.dailykos.com/poll-explorer/2014-senate

Huffington Post. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/senate-outlook

Princeton. http://election.princeton.edu/

All of them show McConnell winning. Not some of them, nor most of them. All of them. There are a few outlier, that is to say polls that fall outside the range of the others, but all of the sites rate the state a win for Republicans.

NY Times has it at 91% probability that Grimes loses. http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/

The reason that this idea that Grimes might not be winning is such a surprise, is that many here get their news from Press Releases and candidate emails seeking donations. Yes we're winning and we need your help to make sure we send (Insert name of Candidate we hate here) back to the hole in the ground he crawled out of. Your support (read cash) is very important and we can't do it without you.

So people run with it, and don't check the prognosticators to find out if there is any truth to the PR that they've just gotten.

[Cali_Democrat]

6. She's moving too far to the right recently

That's why.

Let this be a lesson to all Dems.