IMO, Between 5-7% of voters will change their vote in the ballot booth. Polls don't

[CK_John]

seem to take this fear of change into their surveys methods.

Here is my adjustment method. If an incumbent candidate is showing say a 3% lead, I add 5% and giver them an 8% lead and if a challenger candidate has a 3% lead I take off 5% putting them at 2% down

Check it out and see how it works in your state or district.