Nassim Taleb: Here's What People Don't Understand About Ebola

[Warren DeMontague]

Since so many right now are talking about "panic" and, particularly, how so many people apparently "just don't understand ebola", I thought this was relevant:


http://www.businessinsider.com/nassim-taleb-heres-what-people-dont-understand-about-ebola-2014-10#ixzz3GdSErRhN

More specifically, Taleb explained to Business Insider that many people talking about the disease don't "have a grasp of the severity of the multiplicative process."

The argument that the US should be more worried about a disease like cancer — which has more stable rates of infection than Ebola does currently — is a logic that Taleb calls "the empiricism of the idiots."

The basic idea: The growth of Ebola infection is nonlinear, so the number of people catching it doubles every 20 days. Because of this, you have to act quickly at the source of infections, he says. "The closer you are to the source, the more effective you are at slowing it down ... it is much more rational to prevent it now than later."

***

"If you have to overreact about something, this is the place to overreact," he said.

[Louisiana1976]

1. But the people who shared the apartment with Duncan, the first Ebola victim, didn't catch the

disease.

[nomorenomore08]

2. The point is we have to nip it in the bud early on, because the infected can increase exponentially

within a fairly short period of time.

[Warren DeMontague]

3. This is true. And good news, absolutely.

Nevertheless as Mr. Taleb points out, we are better off acting with an overabundance of caution around this thing, no matter how irritating some people may find it to hear about it.

Not taking the infectiousness of ebola as seriously as it should have been, has likely been what infected 2 front line health care workers with this disease.

And had the authorities, both local and global, "overreacted" to this outbreak back in March, it wouldn't be the problem it is, would it?

[Yo_Mama]

6. The only thing that has ever controlled outbreaks is the "jump on it" bit.

That's the only way to suppress the transmission - find all the exposed and quarantine them. Without medicines or vaccines, it's only quarantine. But quarantine is only effective when you know all the vectors and can block them, and after cases rise to a certain level, it will no longer work.

Taleb is entirely correct. Also it's the same thing we do with TB, esp, MDR TB. That's standard public health. We do contact tracing for STDs and other troublesome infections. Of course we need to do the same for Ebola.

[pnwmom]

9. When Liberia had their first case in April, 2014, the CDC's response was very much the same as it

was with our first case. Don't worry, it's not very contagious, the health authorities will quickly contain this.

They said this about LIBERIA. And we can see how well that went.

[Warren DeMontague]

12. It's not reassuring.

And frankly all the "stop panicking herp derp" crap is just annoying.

[laundry_queen]

15. +1 nt

[pnwmom]

8. So what? Two other people caught it from him. Until we know that the chain is completely broken,

we're not in the clear.

By the way, there are many thousands of cases in Liberia today. How many cases did they have in April, 2014?

One.

[Warren DeMontague]

25. I think odds are pretty good they managed to stop it at the 2 nurses.

Which is a good thing.

Until the next case, or cases come in.

[kestrel91316]

4. Most Americans read at a 5th grade level and do math at 3rd grade level.

Exponential growth is a concept that most can never begin to comprehend. That, combined with their belief in myth over reality, is a bad combination.

[Warren DeMontague]

5. Indeed.

[Hugin]

14. Along with the fact that in all of the U.S. States, the highest paid State Officials are...

Coaches.

[kestrel91316]

16. Bread and circuses.

[HereSince1628]

27. Most people have no idea things like "the rule of 72" used to estimate doubling time

or rate of growth are developed using base 2 rather than base 10.

And yet almost everyone can use the rule of 72 to either build dreams of retiring as billionaires or to see their futures as underneath the crushing weight of compounding interest of school loans.

Yet, many don't use the rule of 72 because they can gather all the news they need about their prospects via social media.

[bemildred]

7. He is correct.

Highly infectious microbial agents are exponential threats, that is why they are considered suitable for making WMDs (some of them).

And that is a completely different sort of threat from anything which is not highly infectious (exponential).

Nuclear explosions are caused by an exponential cascade effect too ...

And that does make it VERY worthwhile to nip things in the bud, for two reasons:

1.) The longer you wait, the bigger the problem can get, and it can get bigger very fast, explosively fast.
2.) Evolution, the bigger it gets, the faster the agents can evolve new tricks.

[Warren DeMontague]

17. #2) True- which is not to say "evolving to airborne transmission" is particularly likely.

Actually the ebola virus seems to be doing a fine job of replicating itself with its current design, given the numbers.

[bemildred]

18. A messy subject, transmission of Ebola.

[sendero]

26. Exactly..

... despite the sanctimonious chidings of the "you have to swim in their blood or vomit" crowd.

There is absolutely no reason to NOT have an abundance of caution about this disease.

[bananas]

10. k&r nt

[MattBaggins]

11. Did you know tha given E. coli's reproduction time it could reach a mass

the size of the earth in 48 hours.

[Warren DeMontague]

13. Ahhhh, just train it to ferment

that's the ticket.

[KMOD]

19. I still continue to believe that we need to find that place between

Panic and disregard.

It's a very serious disease.

The panic we've witnessed in some instances in not helpful.

Nor is the disregard of it.

I really think we should have taken advantage of the nurse's flight to educate people on how you can, and cannot catch this virus.

But I also agree that we should take more preventative steps to not allow more of this disease into our country.

It's crazy to watch people taking sides, like this is a political event. It's not! It's a global humanitarian crisis. Yet for some, it's either all panic or all nonsense to them.

We really need to find the in between.

We also need to focus on where the real problem is. And that is in Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Protect Americans, protect West Africans, and continue to do all we can to nip this in the bud.

But please, no more panic, and no more dismissal. This really is a crisis. Perhaps not in our own country, but it is in West Africa. And if we are not paying attention, it will spread.

[Warren DeMontague]

20. I agree with all that you've said, here.

I think having small clusters of cases here, and attendant freakouts, watch and wait lists, and overreactions, is bound to be a distraction from where the major tragedy is.

Which is why it's all the more important we do all we can to keep additional cases from coming to the US... Keeping the virus out and fighting it over there are not mutually exclusive.

[NutmegYankee]

21. That is true of any disease with a R0 above 1.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number (sometimes called basic reproductive rate, basic reproductive ratio and denoted R0, r nought) of an infection can be thought of as the number of cases one case generates on average over the course of its infectious period, in an otherwise uninfected population.

[Warren DeMontague]

22. Sure. But combine that with a lethality rate of about 70%, and there's a problem.

[NutmegYankee]

23. With proper procedure and protocals, you can easily drop the R0 below 1.

If it had an R0 like the common cold or measles, we'd be screwed. But an R0 of 1.5-2 is doable.

[Warren DeMontague]

24. I think it's doable, too.

There's a pretty big range, though, between "shut up about it, there's nothing to worry about, it's no big deal" and "We're ALL GONNA DIE".

I hope the curve bends downward on the infections. I think most would agree that if we start seeing the more frightening numbers in West Africa- hundreds of thousands or more cases, we're in uncharted territory bigtime.