Those Alison Lundergan Grimes Obituaries Were Premature—She’s Hanging On

[applegrove]

Those Alison Lundergan Grimes Obituaries Were Premature—She’s Hanging On

by Jonathon Miller at the Daily Beast

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/23/those-alison-lundergan-grimes-obituaries-were-premature-she-s-hanging-on.html

"SNIP...................


When Kentucky’s Democratic Senate nominee refused to say whether she voted for Obama, the media rushed to pronounce her toast. But Kentucky’s hatred of the Establishment was stronger.

Several weeks ago, it looked like I had made a bad bet when I picked the young, brash filly to upset the old war horse in the high-profile U.S. Senate derby in Kentucky this fall. U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was ahead of his challenger, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes, by an average of 4 points in most surveys, and the polling aggregators were predicting a GOP victory with anywhere from 75 to 97 percent confidence.

Meanwhile, Grimes appeared to be losing traction in the campaign’s homestretch. News of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee pulling its resources away from Kentucky, as well as national liberal discontent with a tough anti-amnesty ad being run by the Grimes campaign, exacerbated what was widely reported as a game-changing gaffe by the young Democrat: Grimes’s persistent refusal to reveal her presidential votes in 2008 and 2012.

But something happened on the way to McConnell’s supposedly easy trot to the winner’s circle. Two October surveys conducted on behalf of an independent Kentucky media consortium have shown that the race is a dead heat. In the Bluegrass Poll published Monday, the Senate minority leader led his challenger by only one percentage point, 44 percent to 43 percent, well within the survey’s margin of error. And these results are wholly consistent with recent polls released by Grimes’s consultant Mark Mellman, who, while admittedly partial, boasts an enduring national reputation for objectivity and prescience.

While pinpointing the precise cause of the shift in campaign momentum is, of course, impossible, three factors would appear to have made a significant difference. First, as reported here last week, McConnell’s angry and confrontational interview with the Big Blue Nation’s most popular sports radio host may have provided some clarity to a non-political audience, the kind of independent-minded voters who can swing a close election. Second, another college basketball fan, Bill Clinton, has gone all in on behalf of the family that aggressively supported his wife’s 2008 campaign for president: The Big Dog has traveled to Kentucky three times this year on behalf of Alison, while Hillary made her first visit last week—and both have promised to return before Election Day.



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[Saboburns]

1. She knew what she was doing when she didn't answer 'The Question'

Sadly, if she had said she had voted for POTUS, I don't think she could have won.

[randys1]

2. But that goes against the theory that she cant change anybody's mind and she depends on

turnout, and not getting righty to vote for her.

I suppose the numbers in her state are such that conservative dems are her meat and potatoes and as we know all too well right here on DU many conservative Dems hate Obama ...

[Saboburns]

3. Yeppers

I think you nailed it. I live here, I see the commercials, all of which the WingNuts are tying her to President Obama. They do that for a reason, and if were not effective they would not be doing it.

I just don't see her winning. I hope to hell she does. She has run a helluva campaign just to be this close.It would be huge for the party if she could pull it off.

[Samantha]

4. Exactly!

Voters in Kentucky could not have overlooked that. The reporter asked her that question as a trap, but she was just too smart to step in it. And while many commentators in the east condemned that answer, it was the correct answer in Kentucky. Remember, all politics are local.

Sam

[Initech]

5. Were the people printing these obituaries taking cues from the Joker?

[kentuck]

6. I suspect McConnell will have one more negative attack to throw at her before election...

...and she will be ready to respond.

She will take away all his press attention if he tries it.

[Cha]

7. Good! The DCCC was never giving up, either.. just taking a strategic break

mahalo apple~

[davidpdx]

8. I hope so

I made another donation recently. That is one of the campaigns I have been watching closely.